| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NU | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| TULN | 7 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 23 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (TULN Elo 1616, NU Elo 1431) plus home-field advantage. That projects TULN -9.8 (77% to win) — 3.8 points of value on TULN versus the market line of -6.
TULN up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 818 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Northwestern 3, Tulane 23.
Yes — the model's pick (TULN) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had TULN pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Jake Retzlaff run for 69 yds for a TD (Patrick Durkin KICK)
Preston Stone pass intercepted Javion White return for no gain to the TULN 2
Preston Stone pass intercepted
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