Northwestern vs. Tulane: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NUTeam statsTULN
- Q3 7:22TULNPatrick Durkin 31 Yd Field Goal 3–23
- Q2 1:28TULNJake Retzlaff 69 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin Kick)3–20
- Q2 5:18TULNPatrick Durkin 41 Yd Field Goal 3–13
- Q2 11:07TULNPatrick Durkin 22 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q1 0:40NULuke Akers 21 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 10:27TULNJustyn Reid 1 Yd pass from Jake Retzlaff (Patrick Durkin Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- NU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and TULN did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.3 vs 3rd & 5.9
- PassPreston Stone 19/36, 161 YDS, 4 INT
- RushCam Porter 6 CAR, 46 YDS
- RecGriffin Wilde 6 REC, 64 YDS
- PassJake Retzlaff 18/31, 152 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJake Retzlaff 10 CAR, 113 YDS, 1 TD
- RecOmari Hayes 9 REC, 74 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTULN up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 818 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 1:28TULN +6%
Jake Retzlaff run for 69 yds for a TD (Patrick Durkin KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Northwestern vs. Tulane?
Northwestern 3, Tulane 23.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TULN) was correct.
| NU | TULN | |
|---|---|---|
| 237 | Total yards | 421 |
| 161 | Passing yards | 152 |
| 76 | Rushing yards | 269 |
| 19 | First downs | 23 |
| 5-12 | 3rd down | 6-15 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 19/36 | Comp/Att | 18/32 |
| 4.5 | Yards per pass | 4.8 |
| 2.8 | Yards per rush | 6.4 |
| 5 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-19 | Penalties | 5-55 |
| 26:39 | Possession | 33:21 |
Costliest call
Q1 0:40 NU field goal on 4th & 3 at TULN 3. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.83 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 7:22TULNPatrick Durkin 31 Yd Field Goal 3–23
- Q2 1:28TULNJake Retzlaff 69 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin Kick)3–20
- Q2 5:18TULNPatrick Durkin 41 Yd Field Goal 3–13
- Q2 11:07TULNPatrick Durkin 22 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q1 0:40NULuke Akers 21 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 10:27TULNJustyn Reid 1 Yd pass from Jake Retzlaff (Patrick Durkin Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TULN Elo 1616, NU Elo 1431 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TULN -9.8 (75% to win) — 3.8 points clear of TULN's market line of -6. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| NU | TULN | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.8 (#67) | CORE overall | +7.0 (#47) |
| -0 / +1 | offense / defense | +5 / -2 |
| 2.35 | points / drive | 2.56 |
| 2.19 | allowed / drive | 2.20 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →