Canvas StadiumClosing line: CSU -34.5 · NORT covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NORT | 7 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 17 |
| CSU | 0 | 0 | 14 | 7 | 21 |
Team stats
NORTthis game · better side highlightedCSU
223
Total yards
371160
Passing yards
14163
Rushing yards
23017
First downs
273-14 · 21%
Third down
5-10 · 50%Gridpex Model Prediction
One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
CSU (top)NORT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: CSU 100%
Drive-by-drive
NORT 3/13 scoring drives← own end zone →CSU 3/10 scoring drives
CSUPUNT3 pl, 19 yds· own 25Q1
NORTPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 20Q1
CSUFUM4 pl, 6 yds· own 33Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
NORT up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
61%
NORT went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Northern Colorado vs. Colorado State?
Northern Colorado 17, Colorado State 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked NORT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had NORT pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.