Northern Colorado vs. Colorado State: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Northern Colorado

0017

Colorado State0-1

▸0021

Final

Canvas Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
NORT	7	3	7	0	17
CSU	0	0	14	7	21

NORTTeam statsCSU

223Total yards371

160Pass141

63Rush230

17First downs27

3-143rd down5-10

2Turnovers5

29:23Possession30:37

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:44CSUBrayden Fowler-Nicolosi 13 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick)17–21
• Q3 1:25CSULloyd Avant 6 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick)17–14
• Q3 7:14NORTAliou-Rocco Traore 1 Yd Run (Jacob Willig Kick)17–7
• Q3 13:23CSULloyd Avant 2 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick)10–7
• Q2 7:12NORTJacob Willig 23 Yd Field Goal 10–0
• Q1 6:37NORTKia'i Keone 1 Yd Run (Jacob Willig Kick)7–0

How the model called it

Market line

CSU −34.5

Against the number

NORT covered

line CSU −34.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

CSU 100%50%NORT 100%

Kickoff159 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

CSU (top)NORT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: CSU 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

CSU −34.5

Closing total

52.5

Model line

—

Actual result

NORT 17 – 21 CSU

Leaders

Northern Colorado

• PassEric Gibson Jr. 17/28, 160 YDS, 1 INT
• RushJustin Guin 11 CAR, 38 YDS
• RecCarver Cheeks 5 REC, 54 YDS

Colorado State

• PassBrayden Fowler-Nicolosi 13/25, 132 YDS, 1 INT
• RushLloyd Avant 11 CAR, 68 YDS, 2 TD
• RecArmani Winfield 4 REC, 49 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

3.5sper snap · faster the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

139

Points / snap

0.27

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

NORT up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

61%

NORT went on to win

A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common

Most comparable games

LMerrimack vs Holy Cross24-49LPurdue vs Fresno State35-39LRichmond vs Morgan State10-17WBoston College vs Holy Cross31-28LNorth Texas vs Florida International39-48

Fourth downs

15 calls

NORT gave up 0.3 points to the model on fourth down.NORT 6/9 · CSU 4/4 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Northern Colorado vs. Colorado State?

Northern Colorado 17, Colorado State 21.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (CSU) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

NORT

CSU

32%

Success rate

56%

0.13

EPA / pass

0.03

-0.24

EPA / rush

0.20

33%

Early-down success

58%

42%

Pass success

41%

23%

Rush success

66%

11%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

8%

37%

Stuffed rush rate

7%

47%

Pass rate

40%

5.9

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.7

NORT

5.9 yards to go on 3rd down

66 scrimmage snaps

CSU

6.7 yards to go on 3rd down

73 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

NORT		CSU
223	Total yards	371
160	Passing yards	141
63	Rushing yards	230
17	First downs	27
3-14	3rd down	5-10
2-2	4th down	0-1
17/28	Comp/Att	14/26
5.7	Yards per pass	5.4
1.9	Yards per rush	5.0
2	Turnovers	5
5-44	Penalties	10-94
29:23	Possession	30:37

Fourth downs

15 calls

NORT

6/9 with the model

−0.3 pts · −0.0% win prob

CSU

4/4 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q1 11:29 NORT punt on 4th & 3 at NORT 27. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.09 points.

Every call, priced (15)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

NORT 3/13 scoring drives← own end zone →CSU 3/10 scoring drives

CSUPUNT3 pl, 19 yds· own 25Q1

NORTPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 20Q1

CSUFUM4 pl, 6 yds· own 33Q1

NORTTD7 pl, 39 yds· opp 39Q1

CSUMISS8 pl, 46 yds· own 25Q1

NORTPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 29Q1

CSUINT7 pl, 24 yds· own 30Q1

NORTPUNT9 pl, 33 yds· own 18Q2

NORTFG4 pl, 6 yds· opp 12Q2

CSUDOWNS12 pl, 60 yds· own 25Q2

NORTPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 15Q2

NORTEND2 pl, 31 yds· own 25Q2

NORTFUM2 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q3

CSUTD2 pl, 12 yds· opp 12Q3

NORTTD13 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

CSUTD11 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

NORTPUNT5 pl, 25 yds· own 25Q3

CSUPUNT7 pl, 4 yds· own 1Q4

NORTPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 37Q4

CSUFUM6 pl, 51 yds· own 24Q4

NORTPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 40Q4

CSUTD13 pl, 77 yds· own 23Q4

NORTINT6 pl, 47 yds· own 25Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:44CSUBrayden Fowler-Nicolosi 13 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick)17–21
• Q3 1:25CSULloyd Avant 6 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick)17–14
• Q3 7:14NORTAliou-Rocco Traore 1 Yd Run (Jacob Willig Kick)17–7
• Q3 13:23CSULloyd Avant 2 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick)10–7
• Q2 7:12NORTJacob Willig 23 Yd Field Goal 10–0
• Q1 6:37NORTKia'i Keone 1 Yd Run (Jacob Willig Kick)7–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →