Carter-Finley StadiumConference game
Sun, Nov 30, 12:30 AM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNC | 0 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| NCSU | 14 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 42 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (NCSU Elo 1481, UNC Elo 1364) plus home-field advantage. That projects NCSU -7.1 (70% to win), essentially in line with the market.
NCSU up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,206 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
North Carolina 19, NC State 42.
Yes — the model's pick (NCSU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had NCSU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(10:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short left to #6 W.Grimes caught at UNC15, for 15 yards to the UNC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:10, 1ST DOWN #94 K.Vinesett kick attempt good (H: #98 C.Noonkester, LS: #95 J.Mann)
(03:49) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short middle to #1 J.Shipp caught at UNC49, for 13 yards to the NCSU47 (#22 J.Vick; #6 D.Marshall), 1ST DOWN
(13:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete deep right to #1 J.Shipp caught at NCSU00, for 20 yards to the NCSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:03, 1ST DOWN #90 R.Verhoff kick attempt good (H: #96 T.Maginness, LS: #42 S.Triplett)
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