North Carolina vs. NC State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNCTeam statsNCSU
- Q4 1:25UNCJordan Owens 4 Yd pass from Au'Tori Newkirk (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)19–42
- Q4 5:34NCSUWill Wilson 3 Yd Run (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)13–42
- Q4 14:52NCSUWill Wilson 15 Yd Run (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)13–35
- Q3 3:16UNCRece Verhoff 29 Yd Field Goal 13–28
- Q2 0:18NCSUJustin Joly 1 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)10–28
- Q2 1:49UNCRece Verhoff 49 Yd Field Goal 10–21
- Q2 7:12NCSUWill Wilson 1 Yd Run (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)7–21
- Q2 13:03UNCJordan Shipp 20 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Rece Verhoff Kick)7–14
- Q1 3:26NCSUWill Wilson 7 Yd Run (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:10NCSUWesley Grimes 15 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassGio Lopez 11/16, 118 YDS, 1 TD
- RushBenjamin Hall 6 CAR, 29 YDS
- RecJordan Shipp 8 REC, 90 YDS, 1 TD
- PassCJ Bailey 21/30, 201 YDS, 2 TD
- RushCJ Bailey 8 CAR, 65 YDS
- RecWesley Grimes 5 REC, 61 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNCSU up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,206 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of North Carolina vs. NC State?
North Carolina 19, NC State 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (NCSU) was correct.
| UNC | NCSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 265 | Total yards | 386 |
| 195 | Passing yards | 201 |
| 70 | Rushing yards | 185 |
| 20 | First downs | 27 |
| 7-13 | 3rd down | 6-12 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 4-4 |
| 22/36 | Comp/Att | 21/30 |
| 5.4 | Yards per pass | 6.7 |
| 2.9 | Yards per rush | 4.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 11-129 | Penalties | 5-60 |
| 27:01 | Possession | 32:59 |
Costliest call
Q1 8:48 UNC punt on 4th & 2 at UNC 30. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.48 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:25UNCJordan Owens 4 Yd pass from Au'Tori Newkirk (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)19–42
- Q4 5:34NCSUWill Wilson 3 Yd Run (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)13–42
- Q4 14:52NCSUWill Wilson 15 Yd Run (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)13–35
- Q3 3:16UNCRece Verhoff 29 Yd Field Goal 13–28
- Q2 0:18NCSUJustin Joly 1 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)10–28
- Q2 1:49UNCRece Verhoff 49 Yd Field Goal 10–21
- Q2 7:12NCSUWill Wilson 1 Yd Run (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)7–21
- Q2 13:03UNCJordan Shipp 20 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Rece Verhoff Kick)7–14
- Q1 3:26NCSUWill Wilson 7 Yd Run (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:10NCSUWesley Grimes 15 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NCSU Elo 1481, UNC Elo 1364 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NCSU -7.1 (69% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesNorth Carolina leads 60–41–5 · NC State has won 5 straight · 50% have been one-possession games
| UNC | NCSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -10.5 (#97) | CORE overall | +7.0 (#48) |
| -8 / +3 | offense / defense | +6 / -1 |
| 1.67 | points / drive | 2.46 |
| 2.43 | allowed / drive | 2.59 |
| 37% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →