North Carolina vs. Charlotte: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNCTeam statsCLT
- Q4 10:46UNCRece Verhoff 33 Yd Field Goal 20–3
- Q2 0:13UNCDavion Gause 12 Yd Run (Rece Verhoff Kick)17–3
- Q2 12:40CLTLiam Boyd 39 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q1 8:34UNCRece Verhoff 49 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 14:01UNCChris Culliver 51 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Rece Verhoff Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- CLT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UNC did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.1 vs 3rd & 6.3
- CLT lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 16% explosive on a 35% success rate
- PassGio Lopez 17/25, 155 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDemon June 9 CAR, 52 YDS
- RecChris Culliver 3 REC, 74 YDS, 1 TD
- PassConner Harrell 17/29, 140 YDS
- RushRod Gainey Jr. 6 CAR, 15 YDS
- RecJaven Nicholas 11 REC, 122 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUNC up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 4:30CLT +22%
Bronson Long punt for 33 yds, Will Hardy returns for 6 yds to the UNC 28
- Q4 0:56UNC +15%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Javen Nicholas for 11 yds to the CLT 28 for a 1ST down
- Q1 14:01UNC +15%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Chris Culliver for 51 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)
- Q2 0:13UNC +12%
Davion Gause run for 12 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)
- Q1 8:34UNC +6%
Rece Verhoff 49 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of North Carolina vs. Charlotte?
North Carolina 20, Charlotte 3.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UNC) was correct.
| UNC | CLT | |
|---|---|---|
| 303 | Total yards | 271 |
| 155 | Passing yards | 250 |
| 148 | Rushing yards | 21 |
| 15 | First downs | 21 |
| 5-15 | 3rd down | 7-16 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 17/25 | Comp/Att | 25/42 |
| 6.2 | Yards per pass | 6.0 |
| 4.5 | Yards per rush | 0.7 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 5-55 | Penalties | 5-43 |
| 29:38 | Possession | 30:22 |
Costliest call
Q4 5:36 UNC punt on 4th & 1 at midfield. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.57 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 10:46UNCRece Verhoff 33 Yd Field Goal 20–3
- Q2 0:13UNCDavion Gause 12 Yd Run (Rece Verhoff Kick)17–3
- Q2 12:40CLTLiam Boyd 39 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q1 8:34UNCRece Verhoff 49 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 14:01UNCChris Culliver 51 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Rece Verhoff Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CLT Elo 1221, UNC Elo 1417 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CLT +5.4 (37% to win) — 10.6 points clear of CLT's market line of +16. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UNC | CLT | |
|---|---|---|
| -10.5 (#97) | CORE overall | -33.1 (#135) |
| -8 / +3 | offense / defense | -23 / +10 |
| 1.67 | points / drive | 0.88 |
| 2.43 | allowed / drive | 2.98 |
| 37% | three-and-outs | 40% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →