North Carolina Central vs. Old Dominion: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

North Carolina Central

06

Old Dominion0-1

▸0054

Final

S.B. Ballard Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
NORT	0	3	3	0	6
ODU	9	7	28	10	54

NORTTeam statsODU

237Total yards544

101Pass277

136Rush267

13First downs25

3-153rd down3-10

3Turnovers1

31:37Possession28:23

Scoring plays

• Q4 6:13ODURiley Callaghan 47 Yd Field Goal 6–54
• Q4 10:22ODUTrequan Jones 14 Yd Run (Riley Callaghan Kick)6–51
• Q3 0:13NORTKaleb Robison 27 Yd Field Goal 6–44
• Q3 2:24ODUTJ Lott 34 Yd pass from Colton Joseph (Riley Callaghan Kick)3–44
• Q3 5:19ODUColton Joseph 2 Yd Run (Riley Callaghan Kick)3–37
• Q3 7:09ODUJa'Cory Thomas 4 Yd pass from Colton Joseph (Riley Callaghan Kick)3–30
• Q3 11:42ODUTrequan Jones 93 Yd Run (Riley Callaghan Kick)3–23
• Q2 0:04NORTKaleb Robison 39 Yd Field Goal 3–16
• Q2 2:30ODUNa'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding 6 Yd pass from Colton Joseph (Riley Callaghan Kick)0–16
• Q1 1:59ODUTrequan Jones 39 Yd Run (Riley Callaghan Kick)0–9
• Q1 5:21ODUTre' Brown III Safety0–2

How the model called it

Market line

ODU −21.5

Against the number

ODU covered

line ODU −21.5

What the numbers say

• NORT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ODU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.9 vs 3rd & 5.9

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

ODU 100%50%NORT 100%

Kickoff157 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

ODU (top)NORT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ODU 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

ODU −21.5

Closing total

49.5

Model line

—

Actual result

NORT 6 – 54 ODU

Leaders

North Carolina Central

• PassWalker Harris 13/26, 101 YDS, 2 INT
• RushJoshua Jones 9 CAR, 65 YDS
• RecChance Peterson 5 REC, 46 YDS

Old Dominion

• PassColton Joseph 19/24, 257 YDS, 3 TD
• RushTrequan Jones 5 CAR, 163 YDS, 3 TD
• RecJa'Cory Thomas 6 REC, 86 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

11.9sper snap · faster the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

134

Points / snap

0.45

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

ODU up 38 entering the 4th quarter. Across 183 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

ODU went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WKansas State vs Southeast Missouri State45-0WMichigan State vs Richmond45-14WSoutheast Missouri State vs Lindenwood45-7WMontana State vs Stetson57-20WMissouri State vs Utah Tech59-14

Fourth downs

16 calls

ODU gave up 2.3 points to the model on fourth down.NORT 7/9 · ODU 2/6 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of North Carolina Central vs. Old Dominion?

North Carolina Central 6, Old Dominion 54.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (ODU) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

NORT

ODU

29%

Success rate

49%

-0.01

EPA / pass

0.63

-0.26

EPA / rush

0.37

25%

Early-down success

50%

30%

Pass success

53%

29%

Rush success

46%

8%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

17%

40%

Stuffed rush rate

11%

46%

Pass rate

49%

7.9

Avg 3rd-down distance

5.9

NORT

7.9 yards to go on 3rd down

65 scrimmage snaps

ODU

5.9 yards to go on 3rd down

69 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

NORT		ODU
237	Total yards	544
101	Passing yards	277
136	Rushing yards	267
13	First downs	25
3-15	3rd down	3-10
0-3	4th down	1-1
13/27	Comp/Att	22/29
3.7	Yards per pass	9.6
3.6	Yards per rush	7.9
3	Turnovers	1
8-89	Penalties	6-79
31:37	Possession	28:23

Fourth downs

16 calls

NORT

7/9 with the model

−1.1 pts · −0.0% win prob

ODU

2/6 with the model

−2.3 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q1 7:21 ODU punt on 4th & 2 at NORT 46. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.12 points.

Every call, priced (16)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

NORT 3/13 scoring drives← own end zone →ODU 8/14 scoring drives

ODUFUM5 pl, 30 yds· own 25Q1

NORTDOWNS8 pl, 31 yds· own 45Q1

ODUPUNT5 pl, 30 yds· own 24Q1

NORTSAF4 pl, -9 yds· own 9Q1

ODUTD7 pl, 62 yds· own 38Q1

NORTUncateg11 pl, 59 yds· own 38Q1

ODUPUNT5 pl, 37 yds· own 3Q0

NORTINT6 pl, 18 yds· own 34Q2

ODUTD7 pl, 69 yds· own 31Q2

NORTFG8 pl, 61 yds· own 17Q2

ODUEND1 pl, 14 yds· own 27Q2

NORTPUNT6 pl, 21 yds· own 28Q3

ODUTD1 pl, 93 yds· own 7Q3

NORTPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 16Q3

ODUTD8 pl, 79 yds· own 21Q3

NORTINT3 pl, 0 yds· own 24Q3

ODUTD3 pl, 18 yds· opp 18Q3

NORTPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 32Q3

ODUTD4 pl, 36 yds· opp 36Q3

NORTFG5 pl, 46 yds· own 44Q3

ODUPUNT3 pl, 22 yds· own 25Q3

NORTPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 14Q4

ODUTD5 pl, 47 yds· opp 47Q4

NORTFUM3 pl, 14 yds· own 35Q4

ODUFG5 pl, 19 yds· opp 49Q4

NORTPUNT4 pl, -3 yds· own 17Q4

ODUEND5 pl, 14 yds· own 27Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 6:13ODURiley Callaghan 47 Yd Field Goal 6–54
• Q4 10:22ODUTrequan Jones 14 Yd Run (Riley Callaghan Kick)6–51
• Q3 0:13NORTKaleb Robison 27 Yd Field Goal 6–44
• Q3 2:24ODUTJ Lott 34 Yd pass from Colton Joseph (Riley Callaghan Kick)3–44
• Q3 5:19ODUColton Joseph 2 Yd Run (Riley Callaghan Kick)3–37
• Q3 7:09ODUJa'Cory Thomas 4 Yd pass from Colton Joseph (Riley Callaghan Kick)3–30
• Q3 11:42ODUTrequan Jones 93 Yd Run (Riley Callaghan Kick)3–23
• Q2 0:04NORTKaleb Robison 39 Yd Field Goal 3–16
• Q2 2:30ODUNa'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding 6 Yd pass from Colton Joseph (Riley Callaghan Kick)0–16
• Q1 1:59ODUTrequan Jones 39 Yd Run (Riley Callaghan Kick)0–9
• Q1 5:21ODUTre' Brown III Safety0–2

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →