S.B. Ballard StadiumClosing line: ODU -21.5 · ODU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NORT | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| ODU | 9 | 7 | 28 | 10 | 54 |
Team stats
NORTthis game · better side highlightedODU
238
Total yards
545102
Passing yards
277136
Rushing yards
26814
First downs
254-15 · 27%
Third down
3-10 · 30%Gridpex Model Prediction
One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
ODU (top)NORT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ODU 100%
Drive-by-drive
NORT 3/13 scoring drives← own end zone →ODU 8/14 scoring drives
ODUFUM5 pl, 30 yds· own 25Q1
NORTDOWNS8 pl, 31 yds· own 45Q1
ODUPUNT5 pl, 30 yds· own 24Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
ODU up 38 entering the 4th quarter. Across 183 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
ODU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of North Carolina Central vs. Old Dominion?
North Carolina Central 6, Old Dominion 54.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ODU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had ODU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.