North Carolina A&T vs. UCF: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

North Carolina A&T

07

UCF1-0

▸0068

Final

FBC Mortgage Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
NORT	0	0	0	7	7
UCF	28	12	14	14	68

NORTTeam statsUCF

200Total yards560

40Pass204

160Rush356

13First downs20

5-173rd down5-11

3Turnovers0

36:15Possession24:01

Scoring plays

• Q4 3:00NORTShimique Blizzard 17 Yd Run (Andrew Brown Kick)7–68
• Q4 7:41UCFStacy Gage 23 Yd Run (Noah McGough Kick)0–68
• Q4 14:42UCFJacurri Brown 15 Yd Run (Noe Ruelas Kick)0–61
• Q3 4:18UCFJacurri Brown 60 Yd Run (Noe Ruelas Kick)0–54
• Q3 6:56UCFJaden Nixon 66 Yd Run (Noe Ruelas Kick)0–47
• Q2 0:00UCFNoe Ruelas 36 Yd Field Goal 0–40
• Q2 3:37UCFNoe Ruelas 34 Yd Field Goal 0–37
• Q2 13:55UCFJaden Nixon 87 Yd Run (Noe Ruelas PAT failed)0–34
• Q1 2:06UCFRodney Lora 0 Yd Fumble Return (Noe Ruelas Kick)0–28
• Q1 7:16UCFTayven Jackson 4 Yd Run (Noe Ruelas Kick)0–21
• Q1 9:46UCFTayven Jackson 1 Yd Run (Noe Ruelas Kick)0–14
• Q1 14:57UCFJaden Nixon 96 Yd Kickoff Return (Noe Ruelas Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

UCF −37.5

Against the number

UCF covered

line UCF −37.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

UCF 100%50%NORT 100%

Kickoff141 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

UCF (top)NORT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: UCF 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

UCF −37.5

Closing total

51.5

Model line

—

Actual result

NORT 7 – 68 UCF

Leaders

North Carolina A&T

• PassChamp Long 3/7, 26 YDS, 1 INT
• RushShimique Blizzard 11 CAR, 75 YDS, 1 TD
• RecElijah Kennedy 2 REC, 20 YDS

UCF

• PassTayven Jackson 12/21, 189 YDS
• RushJaden Nixon 4 CAR, 156 YDS, 2 TD
• RecDuane Thomas Jr. 3 REC, 68 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

24.3sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

116

Points / snap

0.65

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

UCF up 54 entering the 4th quarter. Across 58 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

UCF went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WToledo vs Texas Southern71-3WUCF vs New Hampshire57-3WTennessee State vs Lincoln (CA)54-0WKennesaw State vs Virginia University Of Lynchburg63-3WGeorgia vs Florida State63-3

Fourth downs

16 calls

NORT gave up 0.6 points to the model on fourth down.NORT 9/10 · UCF 6/6 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of North Carolina A&T vs. UCF?

North Carolina A&T 7, UCF 68.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (UCF) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

NORT

UCF

25%

Success rate

50%

0.04

EPA / pass

0.45

-0.08

EPA / rush

0.79

22%

Early-down success

49%

27%

Pass success

48%

25%

Rush success

52%

8%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

21%

27%

Stuffed rush rate

19%

18%

Pass rate

45%

8.1

Avg 3rd-down distance

7.4

NORT

8.1 yards to go on 3rd down

60 scrimmage snaps

UCF

7.4 yards to go on 3rd down

56 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

NORT		UCF
200	Total yards	560
40	Passing yards	204
160	Rushing yards	356
13	First downs	20
5-17	3rd down	5-11
0-0	4th down	2-2
5/11	Comp/Att	14/24
3.6	Yards per pass	8.5
3.1	Yards per rush	11.1
3	Turnovers	0
7-59	Penalties	6-55
36:15	Possession	24:01

Fourth downs

16 calls

NORT

9/10 with the model

−0.6 pts · −0.0% win prob

UCF

6/6 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q2 0:57 NORT punt on 4th & 1 at NORT 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.

Every call, priced (16)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

NORT 2/13 scoring drives← own end zone →UCF 9/12 scoring drives

NORTPUNT3 pl, -7 yds· own 20Q1

UCFTD8 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q1

NORTINT2 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q1

UCFTD4 pl, 24 yds· opp 24Q1

NORTFUM7 pl, 39 yds· own 27Q1

UCFPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 34Q1

NORTTD3 pl, -9 yds· own 9Q1

NORTPUNT6 pl, 12 yds· own 34Q1

UCFTD1 pl, 87 yds· own 13Q2

NORTPUNT4 pl, 19 yds· own 25Q2

UCFPUNT7 pl, 12 yds· own 38Q2

NORTPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 6Q2

UCFFG7 pl, 48 yds· own 36Q2

NORTPUNT6 pl, 19 yds· own 15Q2

UCFFG6 pl, 71 yds· own 11Q2

NORTMISS12 pl, 49 yds· own 25Q3

UCFTD3 pl, 74 yds· own 26Q3

NORTPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q3

UCFTD1 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q3

NORTPUNT4 pl, 8 yds· own 30Q3

UCFTD4 pl, 25 yds· opp 25Q3

NORTPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 25Q4

UCFTD8 pl, 63 yds· own 37Q4

NORTTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4

UCFEND6 pl, 25 yds· own 25Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 3:00NORTShimique Blizzard 17 Yd Run (Andrew Brown Kick)7–68
• Q4 7:41UCFStacy Gage 23 Yd Run (Noah McGough Kick)0–68
• Q4 14:42UCFJacurri Brown 15 Yd Run (Noe Ruelas Kick)0–61
• Q3 4:18UCFJacurri Brown 60 Yd Run (Noe Ruelas Kick)0–54
• Q3 6:56UCFJaden Nixon 66 Yd Run (Noe Ruelas Kick)0–47
• Q2 0:00UCFNoe Ruelas 36 Yd Field Goal 0–40
• Q2 3:37UCFNoe Ruelas 34 Yd Field Goal 0–37
• Q2 13:55UCFJaden Nixon 87 Yd Run (Noe Ruelas PAT failed)0–34
• Q1 2:06UCFRodney Lora 0 Yd Fumble Return (Noe Ruelas Kick)0–28
• Q1 7:16UCFTayven Jackson 4 Yd Run (Noe Ruelas Kick)0–21
• Q1 9:46UCFTayven Jackson 1 Yd Run (Noe Ruelas Kick)0–14
• Q1 14:57UCFJaden Nixon 96 Yd Kickoff Return (Noe Ruelas Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →