#7Duane Thomas Jr.

WR·UCF·2025

Duane Thomas Jr. is a Versatile WR for UCF. Duane's 2025 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 83 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Duane Thomas Jr.'s projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Rushing

45 Rush yards0 Rush TD14 Carries3.2 Yards/carry

Receiving

53 Receptions528 Rec yards0 Rec TD10.0 Yards/rec

Returns

6 Kick returns103 KR yards0 KR TD2 Punt returns13 PR yards0 PR TD

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume31
Explosiveness20
Consistency43
Pass-Down100

Player type

Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency43th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.31 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 2.04 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs North Carolina A&T.

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Davis Bryson	Kennesaw State	2024	97	0.200	0.0	19.4
Justin Lynch	Temple	2021	63	0.240	0.3	15.1
Samajie Grant	Arizona	2016	62	0.250	0.3	15.5
Amare Jones	Tulane	2020	71	0.180	0.0	12.8
Justin Lynch	Northern Illinois	2022	66	0.230	0.7	15.2

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Long	EPA/play
1	vsJacksonville State	W17-10	-6.7	4	49	12.3	20	-0.40
2	vsNorth Carolina A&T	W68-7	—	3	68	22.7	41	2.04
4	vsNorth Carolina	W34-9	-6.6	5	31	6.2	14	0.28
5	@Kansas State	L20-34	7.0	4	55	13.8	37	0.14
6	vsKansas	L20-27	4.1	5	42	8.4	13	1.01
7	@Cincinnati	L11-20	4.5	5	27	5.4	9	-0.16
8	vsWest Virginia	W45-13	-6.8	4	44	11.0	25	0.10
10	@Baylor	L3-30	1.4	8	77	9.6	29	0.40
11	vsHouston	L27-30	7.4	2	9	4.5	9	-0.28
12	@Texas Tech	L9-48	27.6	6	39	6.5	10	0.57
13	vsOklahoma State	W17-14	-15.1	3	13	4.3	10	-0.12
14	@BYU	L21-41	15.9	4	74	18.5	33	0.42

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

11.0%

Passing plays

17.3%

Rushing plays

4.0%

Standard downs

9.2%

Passing downs

14.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.02
Passing downs: 0.52
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.41 / -0.56

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).