Nevada vs. Wyoming: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NEVTeam statsWYO
- Q4 8:35NEVJoe McFadden 43 Yd Field Goal 13–7
- Q3 1:27WYOEvan Svoboda 5 Yd pass from Kaden Anderson (Erik Sandvik Kick)10–7
- Q3 9:09NEVJoe McFadden 41 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q2 1:12NEVJett Carpenter 8 Yd pass from Carter Jones (Joe McFadden Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassCarter Jones 11/17, 58 YDS, 1 TD
- RushCaleb Ramseur 19 CAR, 88 YDS
- RecCaleb Ramseur 1 REC, 21 YDS
- PassKaden Anderson 22/39, 157 YDS, 1 TD
- RushSam Scott 11 CAR, 48 YDS
- RecMichael Fitzgerald 4 REC, 53 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNEV up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 1:27WYO +27%
Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass complete short middle to #86 E.Svoboda caught at NEV00, for 5 yards to the NEV00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 1:12NEV +24%
Jett Carpenter 8 Yd pass from Carter Jones (Joe McFadden Kick)
- Q4 8:35NEV +22%
#84 J.McFadden field goal attempt from 43 yards GOOD
- Q4 6:00WYO +13%
Shotgun #12 K.Anderson rush left for 1 yard gain to the WYO23 (#9 J.Maldonado)
- Q4 7:31NEV +13%
Shotgun #22 D.Kelley rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NEV21 (#9 B.Johnson)
- Q4 8:35WYO +12%
Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass complete short right to #31 T.Deen caught at WYO22, for 3 yards loss to the WYO22 (#18 A.Walker)
FAQ
What was the final score of Nevada vs. Wyoming?
Nevada 13, Wyoming 7.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked WYO, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| NEV | WYO | |
|---|---|---|
| 271 | Total yards | 220 |
| 58 | Passing yards | 152 |
| 213 | Rushing yards | 68 |
| 17 | First downs | 15 |
| 4-13 | 3rd down | 6-18 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 11/18 | Comp/Att | 23/41 |
| 3.2 | Yards per pass | 3.7 |
| 5.3 | Yards per rush | 3.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 9-66 | Penalties | 6-55 |
| 34:50 | Possession | 25:10 |
Costliest call
Q2 8:15 NEV go for it on 4th & 5 at NEV 15. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.52 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:35NEVJoe McFadden 43 Yd Field Goal 13–7
- Q3 1:27WYOEvan Svoboda 5 Yd pass from Kaden Anderson (Erik Sandvik Kick)10–7
- Q3 9:09NEVJoe McFadden 41 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q2 1:12NEVJett Carpenter 8 Yd pass from Carter Jones (Joe McFadden Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WYO Elo 1348, NEV Elo 1288 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WYO -4.8 (64% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesWyoming leads 6–5 · 73% have been one-possession games
| NEV | WYO | |
|---|---|---|
| -15.3 (#110) | CORE overall | -15.3 (#111) |
| -11 / +4 | offense / defense | -18 / -3 |
| 1.33 | points / drive | 1.07 |
| 2.49 | allowed / drive | 1.65 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| -8 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →