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Nevada vs. Wyoming: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Nov 22, 7:00 PM
War Memorial StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEV | 0 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| WYO | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
WYO 1348
NEV 1288
Projected spread
WYO -4.8
incl. home edge
Model pick
WYO
64% to win
Market spread
WYO -6.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
64%
WYO · market 67%
Our model blends Elo ratings (WYO Elo 1348, NEV Elo 1288) plus home-field advantage. That projects WYO -4.8 (64% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
WYO (top)NEV (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: WYO 0%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
NEV2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedWYO
Offense
0.02
PPA / play
0.0537%
Success rate
38%1.20
Explosiveness
1.172.67
Pts / opportunity
2.9072%
Power success
56%Defense
0.19
PPA allowed / play
0.0744%
Success rate allowed
38%1.20
Explosiveness allowed
1.2114%
Havoc rate
13%16%
Stuff rate
17%Key matchups · Pro
- WYO rush offense (0.02 PPA) vs. NEV rush defense (0.22 allowed) — edge NEV.
- NEV pass offense (-0.02 PPA) vs. WYO pass defense (0.13 allowed) — edge WYO.
- WYO pass offense (0.12 PPA) vs. NEV pass defense (0.18 allowed) — edge NEV.
Drive-by-drive
NEV 3/10 scoring drives← own end zone →WYO 1/10 scoring drives
NEVMISS11 pl, 49 yds· own 25Q1
WYOMISS11 pl, 60 yds· own 26Q1
NEVPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 20Q1
WYOPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 30Q1
NEVPUNT4 pl, 9 yds· own 11Q2
WYOPUNT6 pl, 29 yds· own 23Q2
NEVTD13 pl, 90 yds· own 10Q2
WYOMISS7 pl, 39 yds· own 25Q2
NEVEND1 pl, -2 yds· own 36Q2
WYOPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q3
NEVFG7 pl, 60 yds· own 16Q3
WYOPUNT7 pl, 10 yds· own 25Q3
NEVFUM2 pl, 1 yds· own 20Q3
WYOTD6 pl, 21 yds· opp 21Q3
NEVFG12 pl, 49 yds· own 25Q3
WYOPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 25Q4
NEVPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 18Q4
WYOPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 22Q4
NEVPUNT5 pl, 20 yds· own 28Q4
WYOEND17 pl, 77 yds· own 18Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
NEV up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
61%
NEV went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Nevada vs. Wyoming?
Nevada 13, Wyoming 7.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked WYO, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had WYO pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.