| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEV | 3 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 17 |
| FRES | 0 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 20 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (FRES Elo 1510, NEV Elo 1257) plus home-field advantage. That projects FRES -12.5 (82% to win), essentially in line with the market.
FRES up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Nevada 17, Fresno State 20.
Yes — the model's pick (FRES) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had FRES pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Rayshon Luke run for 68 yds to the NEV 22 for a 1ST down
Chubba Purdy pass intercepted Camryn Bracha return for no gain to the FRES 2
Chubba Purdy pass intercepted Simeon Harris return for 4 yds to the FRES 34
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