Nevada vs. Fresno State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NEVTeam statsFRES
- Q4 12:36NEVCaleb Ramseur 17 Yd pass from Carter Jones (Joe McFadden Kick)17–20
- Q3 0:43NEVDakota Thomas 15 Yd pass from Carter Jones (Joe McFadden Kick)10–20
- Q2 0:32FRESJosiah Freeman 24 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Dylan Lynch Kick)3–20
- Q2 3:19FRESDylan Lynch 38 Yd Field Goal 3–13
- Q2 8:25FRESJosiah Freeman 12 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Dylan Lynch Kick)3–10
- Q2 9:46FRESDylan Lynch 21 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 1:59NEVJoe McFadden 39 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- FRES played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and NEV did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.6 vs 3rd & 5.3
- PassCarter Jones 11/15, 121 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushCaleb Ramseur 16 CAR, 77 YDS
- RecNate Burleson II 1 REC, 45 YDS
- PassE.J. Warner 18/26, 190 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushRayshon Luke 8 CAR, 83 YDS
- RecRichie Anderson III 7 REC, 67 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFRES up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 12:36NEV +21%
Carter Jones pass complete to Caleb Ramseur for 17 yds for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK)
- Q2 8:25FRES +14%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 12 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)
- Q4 8:42FRES +13%
Shotgun Luke,Rayshon rush middle for 0 yards to the FST31 (Floyd,Nathaneal) PENALTY FST Holding 10 yards from FST31 to FST21. NO PLAY
- Q4 8:42NEV +11%
Bailey Ettridge punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jordan Malau'ulu at the FRES 16
- Q4 2:00FRES +11%
E. Warner takes a knee
- Q4 12:36FRES +10%
Shotgun Warner,E.J. pass incomplete short right to Malauulu,Jordan thrown to FST43 PENALTY FST Holding (Fullwood,Rolan) 10 yards from FST25 to FST15. NO PLAY
FAQ
What was the final score of Nevada vs. Fresno State?
Nevada 17, Fresno State 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (FRES) was correct.
| NEV | FRES | |
|---|---|---|
| 246 | Total yards | 342 |
| 117 | Passing yards | 190 |
| 129 | Rushing yards | 152 |
| 13 | First downs | 16 |
| 7-14 | 3rd down | 3-13 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 12/21 | Comp/Att | 18/26 |
| 5.6 | Yards per pass | 7.3 |
| 3.8 | Yards per rush | 4.2 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 1-10 | Penalties | 6-55 |
| 27:11 | Possession | 32:49 |
Costliest call
Q2 9:46 FRES field goal on 4th & 3 at NEV 3. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.83 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 12:36NEVCaleb Ramseur 17 Yd pass from Carter Jones (Joe McFadden Kick)17–20
- Q3 0:43NEVDakota Thomas 15 Yd pass from Carter Jones (Joe McFadden Kick)10–20
- Q2 0:32FRESJosiah Freeman 24 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Dylan Lynch Kick)3–20
- Q2 3:19FRESDylan Lynch 38 Yd Field Goal 3–13
- Q2 8:25FRESJosiah Freeman 12 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Dylan Lynch Kick)3–10
- Q2 9:46FRESDylan Lynch 21 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 1:59NEVJoe McFadden 39 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FRES Elo 1510, NEV Elo 1257 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FRES -12.5 (80% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesFresno State leads 19–14 · Fresno State has won 5 straight · 36% have been one-possession games
| NEV | FRES | |
|---|---|---|
| -15.3 (#110) | CORE overall | -3.4 (#73) |
| -11 / +4 | offense / defense | -7 / -4 |
| 1.33 | points / drive | 1.67 |
| 2.49 | allowed / drive | 1.49 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| -8 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →