| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEB | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 10 |
| PSU | 7 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 37 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (PSU Elo 1938, NEB Elo 1648) plus home-field advantage. That projects PSU -14 (85% to win) — 7.0 points of value on PSU versus the market line of -7.
PSU up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 818 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Nebraska 10, Penn State 37.
Yes — the model's pick (PSU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had PSU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
#21 E.Johnson rush middle for 0 yards to the PSU02 (#28 Z.Durant), TURNOVER ON DOWNS
#85 L.Reynolds rush left for 26 yards gain to the NEB28 (#2 J.Barney Jr.), 1ST DOWN
#21 E.Johnson rush middle for 52 yards gain to the PSU11 (#10 D.Lane), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
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