Nebraska vs. Penn State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NEBTeam statsPSU
- Q4 11:10PSUKaytron Allen 13 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)10–37
- Q3 0:55NEBTJ Lateef 11 Yd Run (Kyle Cunanan Kick)10–30
- Q3 10:07PSUKaytron Allen 3 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)3–30
- Q2 1:14PSUNicholas Singleton 10 Yd Run (Ryan Barker PAT failed)3–23
- Q2 4:09PSUNicholas Singleton 4 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)3–17
- Q2 8:31NEBKyle Cunanan 31 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q2 12:20PSURyan Barker 26 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 7:22PSUAndrew Rappleyea 4 Yd pass from Ethan Grunkemeyer (Ryan Barker Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- NEB played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and PSU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 6.7 vs 3rd & 4.1
- PassTJ Lateef 21/37, 187 YDS
- RushEmmett Johnson 19 CAR, 103 YDS
- RecJacory Barney Jr. 5 REC, 55 YDS
- PassEthan Grunkemeyer 11/12, 181 YDS, 1 TD
- RushKaytron Allen 25 CAR, 160 YDS, 2 TD
- RecNicholas Singleton 3 REC, 51 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsPSU up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 818 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Nebraska vs. Penn State?
Nebraska 10, Penn State 37.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (PSU) was correct.
| NEB | PSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 318 | Total yards | 412 |
| 187 | Passing yards | 181 |
| 131 | Rushing yards | 231 |
| 17 | First downs | 20 |
| 9-18 | 3rd down | 5-9 |
| 1-6 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 21/37 | Comp/Att | 11/12 |
| 5.1 | Yards per pass | 15.1 |
| 4.1 | Yards per rush | 5.9 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-58 | Penalties | 5-65 |
| 29:38 | Possession | 30:22 |
Costliest call
Q2 12:20 PSU field goal on 4th & 3 at NEB 8. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.27 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 11:10PSUKaytron Allen 13 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)10–37
- Q3 0:55NEBTJ Lateef 11 Yd Run (Kyle Cunanan Kick)10–30
- Q3 10:07PSUKaytron Allen 3 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)3–30
- Q2 1:14PSUNicholas Singleton 10 Yd Run (Ryan Barker PAT failed)3–23
- Q2 4:09PSUNicholas Singleton 4 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)3–17
- Q2 8:31NEBKyle Cunanan 31 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q2 12:20PSURyan Barker 26 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 7:22PSUAndrew Rappleyea 4 Yd pass from Ethan Grunkemeyer (Ryan Barker Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (PSU Elo 1938, NEB Elo 1648 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects PSU -14 (83% to win) — 7.0 points clear of PSU's market line of -7. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesNebraska leads 10–9 · 42% have been one-possession games
| NEB | PSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.8 (#68) | CORE overall | +13.0 (#32) |
| +0 / +2 | offense / defense | +8 / -5 |
| 2.52 | points / drive | 2.96 |
| 2.50 | allowed / drive | 2.25 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +2 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →