| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCSU | 14 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 34 |
| WAKE | 14 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 24 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (WAKE Elo 1394, NCSU Elo 1510) plus home-field advantage. That projects WAKE +2.2 (43% to win) — 5.3 points of value on WAKE versus the market line of +7.5.
Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
NC State 34, Wake Forest 24.
Yes — the model's pick (NCSU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had NCSU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Robby Ashford pass intercepted Isaiah Shirley return for 41 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)
Robby Ashford pass complete to Chris Barnes for 70 yds to the NCSU 8 for a 1ST down NC State Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Brody Barnhardt) to the NCSU 4 for a 1ST down
CJ Bailey pass complete to Terrell Anderson for 30 yds to the WAKE 39 for a 1ST down
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