NC State vs. Wake Forest: Final Score, Recap & Advanced Stats

NC State2-0

▸

Wake Forest2-0

Final

Allegacy Federal Credit Union StadiumConference game

	1	2	3	4	T
NCSU	14	3	7	10	34
WAKE	14	10	0	0	24

NCSUTeam statsWAKE

406Total yards311

201Pass252

205Rush59

24First downs12

7-183rd down6-15

0Turnovers2

38:05Possession21:55

Q4 6:19NCSUKanoah Vinesett 38 Yd Field Goal 34–24
Q4 12:37NCSUKeenan Jackson 12 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)31–24
Q3 6:22NCSUJustin Joly 4 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)24–24
Q2 1:00NCSUKanoah Vinesett 24 Yd Field Goal 17–24
Q2 4:07WAKEConnor Calvert 28 Yd Field Goal 14–24
Q2 12:12WAKERobby Ashford 1 Yd Run (Connor Calvert Kick)14–21
Q1 1:19NCSUIsaiah Shirley 41 Yd Interception Return (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)14–14
Q1 2:35NCSUJustin Joly 5 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)7–14
Q1 7:19WAKEDemond Claiborne 1 Yd Run (Connor Calvert Kick)0–14
Q1 14:48WAKEChris Barnes 98 Yd Kickoff Return (Connor Calvert Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Model line

NCSU −2.2

market NCSU −7.5

Biggest swing

NCSU +21%

Q1 4:54

Against the number

NCSU covered

line NCSU −7.5

WAKE favored ↑50%NCSU favored ↓

GridpexNCSU 100%

Closing line

NCSU −7.5

Closing total

52.5

Model line

NCSU −2.2

Actual result

NCSU 34 – 24 WAKE

NC State

PassCJ Bailey 23/32, 201 YDS, 3 TD
RushHollywood Smothers 24 CAR, 164 YDS
RecNoah Rogers 4 REC, 52 YDS

Wake Forest

PassRobby Ashford 21/35, 252 YDS, 2 INT
RushDemond Claiborne 12 CAR, 35 YDS, 1 TD
RecChris Barnes 3 REC, 76 YDS

12sper snap · faster the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

143

Points / snap

0.41

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

50%

WAKE win rate

How often the home team won from here

Most comparable games

LSam Houston vs Air Force3-13 LEastern Kentucky vs Western Carolina24-27 LArkansas vs BYU31-38 LAbilene Christian vs Incarnate Word10-24 WSt. Thomas (MN) vs Morehead State35-28

Q1 4:54NCSU +21%
Bailey, CJ rush for loss of 1 yard to the WAKEFOREST15, PENALTY NCSU holding (Carter Jr., Anthony) 10 yards to the WAKEFOREST24, NO PLAY
Q2 12:12WAKE +20%
Robby Ashford run for 1 yd for a TD (Connor Calvert KICK)
Q1 1:19NCSU +19%
Robby Ashford pass intercepted Isaiah Shirley return for 41 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)
Q1 14:48WAKE +17%
Charlie Birtwistle kickoff for 63 yds, Chris Barnes return for 98 yds for a TD (Connor Calvert KICK)
Q1 2:35NCSU +16%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 5 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)
Q1 7:19WAKE +16%
Demond Claiborne run for 1 yd for a TD (Connor Calvert KICK)

FAQ

What was the final score of NC State vs. Wake Forest?

NC State 34, Wake Forest 24.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (NCSU) was correct.

NCSU

WAKE

42%

Success rate

30%

0.44

EPA / pass

-0.03

-0.13

EPA / rush

0.16

41%

Early-down success

26%

51%

Pass success

29%

35%

Rush success

32%

13%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

37%

Stuffed rush rate

18%

45%

Pass rate

63%

6.9

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.8

NCSU

6.9 yards to go on 3rd down

83 scrimmage snaps

WAKE

6.8 yards to go on 3rd down

60 scrimmage snaps

NCSU		WAKE
406	Total yards	311
201	Passing yards	252
205	Rushing yards	59
24	First downs	12
7-18	3rd down	6-15
2-2	4th down	1-2
23/32	Comp/Att	21/35
6.3	Yards per pass	7.2
4.7	Yards per rush	2.7
0	Turnovers	2
10-94	Penalties	8-82
38:05	Possession	21:55

Model prediction

how the number is built

Power rating (Elo)

WAKE 1394

NCSU 1510

Projected spread

WAKE +2.2

incl. home edge

Model pick

NCSU

55% to win

Market spread

WAKE +7.5

sportsbook line

Model vs market

WAKE

5.3 pts apart

Win prob: model / mkt

45%

WAKE · market 29%

Our model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WAKE Elo 1394, NCSU Elo 1510 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WAKE +2.2 (45% to win) — 5.3 points clear of WAKE's market line of +7.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.

Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).

Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation

Season form — 2025

nationally ranked

NCSU2025 season · national rank shownWAKE

392.865th

Total yards / game

393.863rd

6.135th

Yards / play

6.045th

245.749th

Passing yards / game

237.758th

147.181st

Rushing yards / game

156.270th

41.2%51st

3rd down %

40.0%67th

412.5111th

Yards allowed / game

328.526th

45.7%128th

3rd down % allowed

35.6%40th

+254th

Turnover margin

-6108th

5.545th

Penalties / game

7.4119th

The matchup, in context

series history + adjusted profiles

The series118 meetings since 1908

NC State leads 70–43–5 · 42% have been one-possession games

Opponent-adjusted profile2025

NCSU		WAKE
+7.0 (#48)	CORE overall	+9.3 (#42)
+6 / -1	offense / defense	-4 / -13
2.46	points / drive	2.03
2.59	allowed / drive	1.84
27%	three-and-outs	30%
+5	pass over expected	+1

Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.

CORE ratings →Drive efficiency →Play-calling →

Pro

Key matchups

The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.

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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →

Game Info

Kickoff: Thu, Sep 11, 7:30 PM EDT
Venue: Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
Setting: Conference game
Model line: NCSU -2.2

The Model's Pick

NC State

to win · 55%

✓ Hit

Projected spreadNCSU -2.2

Market71%

Game Leaders

NC State

Pass CJ Bailey23/32, 201 yds, 3 TD
Rush Daylan Smothers24 car, 164 yds
Rec Noah Rogers4 rec, 52 yds

Wake Forest

Pass Robby Ashford21/35, 252 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
Rush Demond Claiborne12 car, 35 yds, 1 TD
Rec Chris Barnes3 rec, 76 yds

Biggest Plays

NC State+-8.2 EPA
Robby Ashford pass intercepted Isaiah Shirley return for 41 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)
Wake Forest+4.6 EPA
Robby Ashford pass complete to Chris Barnes for 70 yds to the NCSU 8 for a 1ST down NC State Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Brody Barnhardt) to the NCSU 4 for a 1ST down
NC State+3.5 EPA
CJ Bailey pass complete to Terrell Anderson for 30 yds to the WAKE 39 for a 1ST down

NCSUTeam statsWAKE

Scoring plays

How the model called it

Win probability

How the line closed

Leaders

Tempo

This exact spot, historically

Fourth downs

What decided it

FAQ

What was the final score of NC State vs. Wake Forest?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Situational splits

Team stats

Fourth downs

Drive chart

Scoring plays

Model prediction

Season form — 2025

The matchup, in context

Key matchups

NC State vs. Wake Forest: Final Score & Recap

NCSUTeam statsWAKE

How the model called it

What was the final score of NC State vs. Wake Forest?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Key matchups