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NC State vs. Notre Dame: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Oct 11, 7:30 PM
Notre Dame Stadium
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCSU | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| ND | 7 | 3 | 14 | 12 | 36 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
ND 2194
NCSU 1489
Projected spread
ND -30.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
ND
99% to win
Market spread
ND -24
sportsbook line
Model edge
ND
6.6 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
99%
ND · market 92%
Our model blends Elo ratings (ND Elo 2194, NCSU Elo 1489) plus home-field advantage. That projects ND -30.6 (99% to win) — 6.6 points of value on ND versus the market line of -24.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
ND (top)NCSU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ND 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
NCSU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedND
Offense
0.28
PPA / play
0.3644%
Success rate
49%1.38
Explosiveness
1.444.69
Pts / opportunity
4.7973%
Power success
62%Defense
0.21
PPA allowed / play
0.0439%
Success rate allowed
36%1.44
Explosiveness allowed
1.2815%
Havoc rate
18%19%
Stuff rate
18%Key matchups · Pro
- NCSU pass offense (0.39 PPA) vs. ND pass defense (0.09 allowed) — edge NCSU.
- ND pass offense (0.45 PPA) vs. NCSU pass defense (0.30 allowed) — edge ND.
- NCSU rush offense (0.19 PPA) vs. ND rush defense (0.04 allowed) — edge NCSU.
Drive-by-drive
NCSU 2/12 scoring drives← own end zone →ND 6/13 scoring drives
NCSUPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 18Q1
NDTD6 pl, 58 yds· own 42Q1
NCSUPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q1
NDDOWNS9 pl, 52 yds· own 31Q1
NCSUTD11 pl, 83 yds· own 17Q1
NDPUNT4 pl, 20 yds· own 23Q2
NCSUPUNT8 pl, 36 yds· own 17Q2
NDPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 10Q2
NCSUPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 37Q2
NDINT6 pl, 60 yds· own 32Q2
NCSUPUNT6 pl, 19 yds· own 20Q2
NDFG5 pl, 40 yds· own 30Q2
NDPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q3
NCSUPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 32Q3
NDTD11 pl, 90 yds· own 10Q3
NCSUPUNT5 pl, 19 yds· own 25Q3
NDTD5 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q3
NCSUINT6 pl, 23 yds· own 25Q3
NDFG4 pl, 1 yds· opp 17Q4
NCSUINT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q4
NDFUM5 pl, 18 yds· opp 20Q4
NCSUSAF1 pl, -2 yds· own 2Q4
NDTD10 pl, 82 yds· own 18Q4
NCSUINT7 pl, 46 yds· own 25Q4
NDEND2 pl, -2 yds· own 20Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
ND up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
97%
ND went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of NC State vs. Notre Dame?
NC State 7, Notre Dame 36.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ND) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had ND pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.