NC State vs. Duke: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NCSUTeam statsDUKE
- Q4 2:19DUKEAnderson Castle 66 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)33–45
- Q4 4:01NCSUWill Wilson 1 Yd Run (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)33–38
- Q4 14:18DUKETodd Pelino 43 Yd Field Goal 26–38
- Q3 8:32DUKECooper Barkate 37 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Todd Pelino Kick)26–35
- Q3 11:53NCSUHollywood Smothers 51 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)26–28
- Q3 13:30DUKESahmir Hagans 33 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Todd Pelino Kick)20–28
- Q2 0:16DUKEAnderson Castle 1 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)20–21
- Q2 2:20DUKELanden King 17 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Todd Pelino Kick)20–14
- Q2 5:45NCSUWill Wilson 1 Yd Run (Kanoah Vinesett PAT failed)20–7
- Q2 14:18NCSUTerrell Anderson 6 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)14–7
- Q1 10:49DUKEAnderson Castle 2 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)7–7
- Q1 14:10NCSUTerrell Anderson 75 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassCJ Bailey 29/39, 364 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
- RushHollywood Smothers 17 CAR, 123 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTerrell Anderson 6 REC, 166 YDS, 2 TD
- PassDarian Mensah 19/28, 269 YDS, 3 TD
- RushAnderson Castle 12 CAR, 92 YDS, 3 TD
- RecCooper Barkate 3 REC, 65 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsDUKE up 9 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,697 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 14:50NCSU +22%
Hollywood Smothers run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 25
- Q4 4:01NCSU +19%
Will Wilson run for 1 yd for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)
- Q4 3:56DUKE +14%
Nate Sheppard run for 5 yds to the DUKE 30
- Q4 14:18DUKE +6%
Todd Pelino 43 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 3:53DUKE +5%
PENALTY NCSU Offside 5 yards from DUKE12 to DUKE17. NO PLAY
FAQ
What was the final score of NC State vs. Duke?
NC State 33, Duke 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (DUKE) was correct.
| NCSU | DUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| 535 | Total yards | 418 |
| 364 | Passing yards | 269 |
| 171 | Rushing yards | 149 |
| 26 | First downs | 22 |
| 7-12 | 3rd down | 5-12 |
| 1-4 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 29/39 | Comp/Att | 19/28 |
| 9.3 | Yards per pass | 9.6 |
| 4.9 | Yards per rush | 4.3 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-49 | Penalties | 8-103 |
| 32:29 | Possession | 27:31 |
Costliest call
Q2 10:39 DUKE punt on 4th & 7 at NCSU 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.10 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:19DUKEAnderson Castle 66 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)33–45
- Q4 4:01NCSUWill Wilson 1 Yd Run (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)33–38
- Q4 14:18DUKETodd Pelino 43 Yd Field Goal 26–38
- Q3 8:32DUKECooper Barkate 37 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Todd Pelino Kick)26–35
- Q3 11:53NCSUHollywood Smothers 51 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)26–28
- Q3 13:30DUKESahmir Hagans 33 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Todd Pelino Kick)20–28
- Q2 0:16DUKEAnderson Castle 1 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)20–21
- Q2 2:20DUKELanden King 17 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Todd Pelino Kick)20–14
- Q2 5:45NCSUWill Wilson 1 Yd Run (Kanoah Vinesett PAT failed)20–7
- Q2 14:18NCSUTerrell Anderson 6 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)14–7
- Q1 10:49DUKEAnderson Castle 2 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)7–7
- Q1 14:10NCSUTerrell Anderson 75 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (DUKE Elo 1462, NCSU Elo 1521 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects DUKE PK (51% to win) — 3.0 points clear of NCSU's market line of -3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesDuke leads 44–37–5 · Duke has won 3 straight · 43% have been one-possession games
| NCSU | DUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| +7.0 (#48) | CORE overall | +2.4 (#60) |
| +6 / -1 | offense / defense | +9 / +7 |
| 2.46 | points / drive | 3.04 |
| 2.59 | allowed / drive | 2.85 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +5 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →