NC State
3-0·ACC· Elo 1521
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCSU | 7 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 33 |
| DUKE | 7 | 14 | 14 | 10 | 45 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (DUKE Elo 1462, NCSU Elo 1521) plus home-field advantage. That projects DUKE PK (50% to win) — 3.0 points of value on NCSU versus the market line of -3.
DUKE up 9 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,697 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
NC State 33, Duke 45.
Yes — the model's pick (DUKE) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had DUKE pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
CJ Bailey pass complete to Terrell Anderson for 75 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)
Anderson Castle run for 66 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
Darian Mensah pass complete to Cooper Barkate for 37 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →