| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAVY | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| ND | 7 | 14 | 21 | 7 | 49 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (ND Elo 2153, NAVY Elo 1513) plus home-field advantage. That projects ND -28 (98% to win) — 2.5 points of value on NAVY versus the market line of -30.5.
ND up 32 entering the 4th quarter. Across 373 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Navy 10, Notre Dame 49.
Yes — the model's pick (ND) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had ND pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(11:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush right for 54 yards gain to the NAV00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:27, 1ST DOWN #18 E.Schmidt kick attempt good (H: #10 T.Buchner, LS: #96 J.Vinci)
(01:34) Shotgun #5 B.Woodson rush middle for 41 yards gain to the UND34 (#9 T.Johnson), 1ST DOWN
(13:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Love rush right for 48 yards gain to the NAV00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:27, 1ST DOWN #18 E.Schmidt kick attempt good (H: #10 T.Buchner, LS: #96 J.Vinci)
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →
