Navy vs. Notre Dame: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NAVYTeam statsND
- Q4 11:27NDAneyas Williams 54 Yd Run (Erik Schmidt Kick)10–49
- Q3 6:27NDTy Washington 4 Yd pass from CJ Carr (Erik Schmidt Kick)10–42
- Q3 11:27NDKK Smith 34 Yd pass from CJ Carr (Erik Schmidt Kick)10–35
- Q3 13:27NDJeremiyah Love 48 Yd Run (Erik Schmidt Kick)10–28
- Q2 0:15NAVYNathan Kirkwood 33 Yd Field Goal 10–21
- Q2 1:42NDJordan Faison 5 Yd pass from CJ Carr (Erik Schmidt Kick)7–21
- Q2 5:57NDJadarian Price 2 Yd Run (Erik Schmidt Kick)7–14
- Q2 11:02NAVYBraxton Woodson 2 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:31NDJeremiyah Love 1 Yd Run (Erik Schmidt Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- NAVY played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ND did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.0 vs 3rd & 6.0
- PassBraxton Woodson 3/8, 22 YDS
- RushBraxton Woodson 23 CAR, 101 YDS, 1 TD
- RecEli Heidenreich 2 REC, 20 YDS
- PassCJ Carr 13/16, 218 YDS, 3 TD
- RushJeremiyah Love 13 CAR, 94 YDS, 2 TD
- RecMalachi Fields 4 REC, 97 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsND up 32 entering the 4th quarter. Across 373 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Navy vs. Notre Dame?
Navy 10, Notre Dame 49.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ND) was correct.
| NAVY | ND | |
|---|---|---|
| 228 | Total yards | 502 |
| 22 | Passing yards | 253 |
| 206 | Rushing yards | 249 |
| 13 | First downs | 23 |
| 3-11 | 3rd down | 7-10 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 3/10 | Comp/Att | 16/19 |
| 2.2 | Yards per pass | 13.3 |
| 4.6 | Yards per rush | 6.6 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-57 | Penalties | 0-0 |
| 29:23 | Possession | 30:37 |
Costliest call
Q1 1:48 NAVY punt on 4th & 12 at ND 42. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.10 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 11:27NDAneyas Williams 54 Yd Run (Erik Schmidt Kick)10–49
- Q3 6:27NDTy Washington 4 Yd pass from CJ Carr (Erik Schmidt Kick)10–42
- Q3 11:27NDKK Smith 34 Yd pass from CJ Carr (Erik Schmidt Kick)10–35
- Q3 13:27NDJeremiyah Love 48 Yd Run (Erik Schmidt Kick)10–28
- Q2 0:15NAVYNathan Kirkwood 33 Yd Field Goal 10–21
- Q2 1:42NDJordan Faison 5 Yd pass from CJ Carr (Erik Schmidt Kick)7–21
- Q2 5:57NDJadarian Price 2 Yd Run (Erik Schmidt Kick)7–14
- Q2 11:02NAVYBraxton Woodson 2 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:31NDJeremiyah Love 1 Yd Run (Erik Schmidt Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ND Elo 2153, NAVY Elo 1513 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ND -28 (95% to win) — 2.5 points clear of NAVY's market line of -30.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesNotre Dame leads 84–13–1 · Notre Dame has won 8 straight · 30% have been one-possession games
| NAVY | ND | |
|---|---|---|
| +9.3 (#43) | CORE overall | +38.3 (#2) |
| +13 / +3 | offense / defense | +20 / -18 |
| 3.12 | points / drive | 3.84 |
| 2.74 | allowed / drive | 1.28 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 17% |
| -20 | pass over expected | +0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →