| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAVY | 0 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 28 |
| MEM | 3 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 17 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (MEM Elo 1660, NAVY Elo 1485) plus home-field advantage. That projects MEM -9.4 (76% to win) — 5.9 points of value on MEM versus the market line of -3.5.
NAVY up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Navy 28, Memphis 17.
No — the model picked MEM, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had MEM pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
(05:02) Navy rush middle for 5 yards loss to the MEM06 fumbled by Navy at MEM02 recovered by MEM #18 J.Hunter at MEM06, End Of Play
(06:37) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath pass complete deep right to #22 E.Heidenreich caught at MEM30, for 46 yards to the MEM26 (#31 D.Ward), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY MEM Pass Interference declined
(01:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Lewis pass complete deep right to #4 C.Braham Jr. caught at NAV00, for 38 yards to the NAV00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:43, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY NAV Offside declined #44 G.Spetic kick attempt good (H: #46 T.Gillis, LS: #40 J.Zarut)
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