Navy vs. Memphis: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NAVYTeam statsMEM
- Q4 5:53NAVYBlake Horvath 2 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)28–17
- Q3 1:01NAVYAlex Tecza 12 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)21–17
- Q2 1:43MEMCortez Braham Jr. 38 Yd pass from Brendon Lewis (Gianni Spetic Kick)14–17
- Q2 5:13NAVYAlex Tecza 2 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)14–10
- Q2 7:28MEMMatt Adcock 1 Yd pass from Brendon Lewis (Gianni Spetic Kick)7–10
- Q2 12:11NAVYKendall Evans 3 Yd pass from Blake Horvath (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)7–3
- Q1 5:35MEMGianni Spetic 31 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MEM played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and NAVY did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.7 vs 3rd & 4.6
- PassBlake Horvath 5/9, 100 YDS, 1 TD
- RushAlex Tecza 26 CAR, 103 YDS, 2 TD
- RecEli Heidenreich 2 REC, 64 YDS
- PassBrendon Lewis 19/36, 172 YDS, 2 TD
- RushBrendon Lewis 10 CAR, 36 YDS
- RecCortez Braham Jr. 4 REC, 65 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNAVY up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 1:01NAVY +33%
#46 A.Tecza rush right for 12 yards gain to the MEM00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 1:43MEM +21%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Lewis pass complete deep right to #4 C.Braham Jr. caught at NAV00, for 38 yards to the NAV00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY NAV Offside declined
- Q2 5:13NAVY +21%
#46 A.Tecza rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MEM00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 9:26NAVY +21%
Shotgun #11 B.Horvath pass incomplete deep right to #82 N.Kent thrown to MEM04 PENALTY MEM Pass Interference (#13 J.Jordan) 15 yards from MEM36 to MEM21, 1ST DOWN. NO…
- Q2 7:28MEM +19%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Lewis pass complete short right to #32 M.Adcock caught at NAV01, for 1 yard to the NAV00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 5:53NAVY +19%
Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MEM00 TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Navy vs. Memphis?
Navy 28, Memphis 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MEM, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| NAVY | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 300 | Total yards | 288 |
| 100 | Passing yards | 172 |
| 200 | Rushing yards | 116 |
| 21 | First downs | 18 |
| 8-15 | 3rd down | 4-12 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 5/9 | Comp/Att | 19/36 |
| 11.1 | Yards per pass | 4.8 |
| 3.3 | Yards per rush | 4.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-56 | Penalties | 6-49 |
| 35:29 | Possession | 24:31 |
Costliest call
Q1 2:24 NAVY go for it on 4th & 6 at NAVY 40. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.31 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:53NAVYBlake Horvath 2 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)28–17
- Q3 1:01NAVYAlex Tecza 12 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)21–17
- Q2 1:43MEMCortez Braham Jr. 38 Yd pass from Brendon Lewis (Gianni Spetic Kick)14–17
- Q2 5:13NAVYAlex Tecza 2 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)14–10
- Q2 7:28MEMMatt Adcock 1 Yd pass from Brendon Lewis (Gianni Spetic Kick)7–10
- Q2 12:11NAVYKendall Evans 3 Yd pass from Blake Horvath (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)7–3
- Q1 5:35MEMGianni Spetic 31 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MEM Elo 1660, NAVY Elo 1485 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MEM -9.4 (74% to win) — 5.9 points clear of MEM's market line of -3.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMemphis leads 6–5 · Navy has won 2 straight · 36% have been one-possession games
| NAVY | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| +9.3 (#43) | CORE overall | +2.0 (#61) |
| +13 / +3 | offense / defense | +4 / +2 |
| 3.12 | points / drive | 2.73 |
| 2.74 | allowed / drive | 2.19 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| -20 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →