Murray State vs. Georgia State: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Murray State

0021

Georgia State0-2

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Final

Center Parc Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
MURR	0	7	0	14	21
GAST	14	9	7	7	37

MURRTeam statsGAST

282Total yards454

159Pass288

123Rush166

22First downs18

4-143rd down5-11

1Turnovers3

29:05Possession30:55

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:55MURRBaxter Wright 3 Yd Run (Baxter Wright Pass to Tyrell Campbell for Two-Point Conversion)21–37
• Q4 7:07GASTCamden Overton-Howard 3 Yd pass from Cameran Brown (Braeden McAlister Kick)13–37
• Q4 12:50MURRLucas Desjardins 4 Yd pass from Jim Ogle (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)13–30
• Q3 3:04GASTTed Hurst 16 Yd pass from Cameran Brown (Braeden McAlister Kick)7–30
• Q2 0:48GASTRashad Amos 1 Yd Run (Braeden McAlister Kick)7–23
• Q2 3:50GASTJaylen Jones Safety7–16
• Q2 13:51MURRJawaun Northington 5 Yd Run (Jack Tannehill Kick)7–14
• Q1 2:47GASTLeo Blackburn 5 Yd pass from Cameran Brown (Braeden McAlister Kick)0–14
• Q1 7:26GASTTed Hurst 1 Yd pass from TJ Finley (Braeden McAlister Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

GAST −31.5

Against the number

MURR covered

line GAST −31.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

GAST 100%50%MURR 100%

Kickoff154 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

GAST (top)MURR (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: GAST 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

GAST −31.5

Closing total

63.5

Model line

—

Actual result

MURR 21 – 37 GAST

Leaders

Murray State

• PassJim Ogle 17/28, 138 YDS, 1 TD
• RushJawaun Northington 14 CAR, 64 YDS, 1 TD
• RecLucas Desjardins 7 REC, 75 YDS, 1 TD

Georgia State

• PassTJ Finley 11/18, 150 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
• RushBranson Robinson 8 CAR, 65 YDS
• RecTed Hurst III 10 REC, 172 YDS, 2 TD

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

GAST up 23 entering the 4th quarter. Across 836 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

99%

GAST went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WSouth Alabama vs Oklahoma State33-7WPennsylvania vs Bucknell37-21WVillanova vs North Carolina A&T37-14WTroy vs Arkansas State37-3WSamford vs The Citadel37-7

Fourth downs

16 calls

MURR gave up 1.1 points to the model on fourth down.MURR 5/8 · GAST 6/7 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Murray State vs. Georgia State?

Murray State 21, Georgia State 37.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (GAST) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

MURR

GAST

41%

Success rate

49%

0.08

EPA / pass

0.69

0.13

EPA / rush

0.14

42%

Early-down success

47%

46%

Pass success

55%

38%

Rush success

44%

8%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

16%

20%

Stuffed rush rate

16%

45%

Pass rate

48%

7.1

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.6

MURR

7.1 yards to go on 3rd down

73 scrimmage snaps

GAST

6.6 yards to go on 3rd down

61 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

MURR		GAST
282	Total yards	454
159	Passing yards	288
123	Rushing yards	166
22	First downs	18
4-14	3rd down	5-11
1-3	4th down	2-2
19/30	Comp/Att	21/30
5.3	Yards per pass	9.6
2.9	Yards per rush	5.2
1	Turnovers	3
2-25	Penalties	13-132
29:05	Possession	30:55

Fourth downs

16 calls

MURR

5/8 with the model

−1.1 pts · −0.0% win prob

GAST

6/7 with the model

−0.5 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q4 14:56 MURR go for it on 4th & 8 at GAST 29. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.70 points.

Every call, priced (16)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

MURR 4/13 scoring drives← own end zone →GAST 5/12 scoring drives

GASTPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 23Q1

MURRDOWNS6 pl, 22 yds· own 43Q1

GASTTD6 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q1

MURRPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q1

GASTTD9 pl, 58 yds· own 42Q1

MURRTD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

GASTPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 5Q2

MURRDOWNS4 pl, 4 yds· opp 29Q2

GASTPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q2

MURRPUNT4 pl, 16 yds· own 16Q2

GASTINT3 pl, 25 yds· own 16Q2

MURRSAF3 pl, -6 yds· own 6Q2

GASTINT4 pl, 54 yds· own 42Q2

MURRFUM3 pl, 0 yds· own 4Q2

GASTTD2 pl, 4 yds· opp 4Q2

MURRMISS7 pl, 42 yds· own 25Q2

MURRPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 25Q3

MURRMISS4 pl, 6 yds· opp 21Q3

GASTPUNT6 pl, 26 yds· own 20Q3

MURRPUNT5 pl, 17 yds· own 12Q3

GASTTD10 pl, 76 yds· own 24Q3

MURRTD11 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

GASTTD10 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q4

MURRTD11 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4

GASTEND3 pl, 8 yds· opp 42Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:55MURRBaxter Wright 3 Yd Run (Baxter Wright Pass to Tyrell Campbell for Two-Point Conversion)21–37
• Q4 7:07GASTCamden Overton-Howard 3 Yd pass from Cameran Brown (Braeden McAlister Kick)13–37
• Q4 12:50MURRLucas Desjardins 4 Yd pass from Jim Ogle (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)13–30
• Q3 3:04GASTTed Hurst 16 Yd pass from Cameran Brown (Braeden McAlister Kick)7–30
• Q2 0:48GASTRashad Amos 1 Yd Run (Braeden McAlister Kick)7–23
• Q2 3:50GASTJaylen Jones Safety7–16
• Q2 13:51MURRJawaun Northington 5 Yd Run (Jack Tannehill Kick)7–14
• Q1 2:47GASTLeo Blackburn 5 Yd pass from Cameran Brown (Braeden McAlister Kick)0–14
• Q1 7:26GASTTed Hurst 1 Yd pass from TJ Finley (Braeden McAlister Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →