Center Parc StadiumClosing line: GAST -31.5 · MURR covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MURR | 0 | 7 | 0 | 14 | 21 |
| GAST | 14 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 37 |
Team stats
MURRthis game · better side highlightedGAST
282
Total yards
454159
Passing yards
288123
Rushing yards
16622
First downs
184-14 · 29%
Third down
5-11 · 45%Gridpex Model Prediction
One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
GAST (top)MURR (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: GAST 100%
Drive-by-drive
MURR 4/13 scoring drives← own end zone →GAST 5/12 scoring drives
GASTPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 23Q1
MURRDOWNS6 pl, 22 yds· own 43Q1
GASTTD6 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
GAST up 23 entering the 4th quarter. Across 836 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
99%
GAST went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Murray State vs. Georgia State?
Murray State 21, Georgia State 37.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MURR, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had MURR pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.