Morgan State vs. Toledo: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Morgan State0-1

00

Toledo1-1

▸0060

Final

Glass Bowl

	1	2	3	4	T
MORG	0	0	0	0	0
TOL	3	43	7	7	60

MORGTeam statsTOL

56Total yards557

20Pass297

36Rush260

4First downs31

0-123rd down7-14

1Turnovers1

26:01Possession33:59

Scoring plays

• Q4 13:48TOLKalieb Osborne 7 Yd Run (Anthony Ruggles Kick)0–60
• Q3 7:50TOLCC Ezirim 2 Yd pass from John Alan Richter (Dylan Cunanan Kick)0–53
• Q2 0:07TOLJunior Vandeross III 7 Yd pass from John Alan Richter (Dylan Cunanan Kick)0–46
• Q2 2:18TOLKenji Christian 2 Yd Run (Dylan Cunanan Kick)0–39
• Q2 4:54TOLChip Trayanum 1 Yd Run (Dylan Cunanan Kick)0–32
• Q2 8:19TOLKenji Christian 10 Yd Run (Dylan Cunanan Kick)0–25
• Q2 11:07TOLChip Trayanum 1 Yd Run (Dylan Cunanan Kick)0–18
• Q2 14:08TOLJunior Vandeross III 12 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Connor Jones Run for Two-Point Conversion)0–11
• Q1 12:37TOLDylan Cunanan 28 Yd Field Goal 0–3

How the model called it

Market line

TOL −33.5

Against the number

TOL covered

line TOL −33.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

TOL 100%50%MORG 100%

Kickoff157 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

TOL (top)MORG (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: TOL 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

TOL −33.5

Closing total

54.5

Model line

—

Actual result

MORG 0 – 60 TOL

Leaders

Morgan State

• PassKobe Muasau 6/8, 18 YDS
• RushDae'Jeaun Dennis 4 CAR, 18 YDS
• RecJoshua Smith 1 REC, 21 YDS

Toledo

• PassTucker Gleason 13/17, 174 YDS, 1 TD
• RushKalieb Osborne 7 CAR, 49 YDS, 1 TD
• RecJavon Brown 5 REC, 94 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

23.9sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

132

Points / snap

0.45

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

TOL up 53 entering the 4th quarter. Across 48 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

TOL went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WKennesaw State vs Virginia University Of Lynchburg63-3WGeorgia vs Florida State63-3WNorthern Arizona vs Lincoln (CA)66-6WIndiana vs Western Illinois77-3WNorth Alabama vs Utah Tech60-14

Fourth downs

19 calls

MORG gave up 4.1 points to the model on fourth down.MORG 9/13 · TOL 2/4 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Morgan State vs. Toledo?

Morgan State 0, Toledo 60.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (TOL) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

MORG

TOL

15%

Success rate

59%

-0.20

EPA / pass

0.52

-0.37

EPA / rush

0.25

20%

Early-down success

61%

11%

Pass success

64%

17%

Rush success

54%

2%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

13%

35%

Stuffed rush rate

24%

38%

Pass rate

46%

8.1

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.6

MORG

8.1 yards to go on 3rd down

47 scrimmage snaps

TOL

6.6 yards to go on 3rd down

85 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

MORG		TOL
56	Total yards	557
20	Passing yards	297
36	Rushing yards	260
4	First downs	31
0-12	3rd down	7-14
0-0	4th down	0-1
9/16	Comp/Att	27/37
1.3	Yards per pass	8.0
1.1	Yards per rush	5.5
1	Turnovers	1
5-19	Penalties	7-65
26:01	Possession	33:59

Fourth downs

19 calls

MORG

9/13 with the model

−4.1 pts · −0.0% win prob

TOL

2/4 with the model

−1.0 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q4 10:01 MORG punt on 4th & 1 at MORG 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.25 points.

Every call, priced (19)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

MORG 0/15 scoring drives← own end zone →TOL 9/14 scoring drives

TOLFG7 pl, 65 yds· own 25Q1

MORGPUNT7 pl, 28 yds· own 25Q1

TOLPUNT6 pl, 28 yds· own 9Q1

MORGPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 10Q1

TOLPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· opp 41Q1

MORGPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 3Q1

TOLTD2 pl, 12 yds· opp 12Q2

MORGFUM2 pl, -2 yds· own 22Q2

TOLTD5 pl, 20 yds· opp 20Q2

MORGPUNT3 pl, -11 yds· own 25Q2

TOLTD5 pl, 36 yds· opp 36Q2

MORGPUNT3 pl, -11 yds· own 25Q2

TOLTD4 pl, 42 yds· opp 42Q2

MORGPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q2

TOLTD3 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q2

MORGPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q2

TOLTD10 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q2

MORGEND1 pl, -2 yds· own 25Q2

MORGPUNT5 pl, 12 yds· own 25Q3

TOLTD11 pl, 74 yds· own 26Q3

MORGPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q3

TOLFUM3 pl, 3 yds· own 33Q3

MORGPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· opp 36Q3

TOLTD11 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q3

MORGPUNT5 pl, 20 yds· own 25Q4

TOLPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 22Q4

MORGPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 30Q4

TOLDOWNS12 pl, 57 yds· own 23Q4

MORGEND1 pl, 5 yds· own 20Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 13:48TOLKalieb Osborne 7 Yd Run (Anthony Ruggles Kick)0–60
• Q3 7:50TOLCC Ezirim 2 Yd pass from John Alan Richter (Dylan Cunanan Kick)0–53
• Q2 0:07TOLJunior Vandeross III 7 Yd pass from John Alan Richter (Dylan Cunanan Kick)0–46
• Q2 2:18TOLKenji Christian 2 Yd Run (Dylan Cunanan Kick)0–39
• Q2 4:54TOLChip Trayanum 1 Yd Run (Dylan Cunanan Kick)0–32
• Q2 8:19TOLKenji Christian 10 Yd Run (Dylan Cunanan Kick)0–25
• Q2 11:07TOLChip Trayanum 1 Yd Run (Dylan Cunanan Kick)0–18
• Q2 14:08TOLJunior Vandeross III 12 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Connor Jones Run for Two-Point Conversion)0–11
• Q1 12:37TOLDylan Cunanan 28 Yd Field Goal 0–3

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →