Kyle FieldConference gameClosing line: TA&M -17.5 · TA&M covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSST | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| TA&M | 0 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 31 |
Team stats
MSSTthis game · better side highlightedTA&M
219
Total yards
483142
Passing yards
18077
Rushing yards
30314
First downs
231-10 · 10%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
TA&M 1753
MSST 1523
Projected spread
TA&M -11.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
TA&M
80% to win
Market spread
TA&M -17.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
MSST
5.9 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
80%
TA&M · market 85%
Our model blends Elo ratings (TA&M Elo 1753, MSST Elo 1523) plus home-field advantage. That projects TA&M -11.6 (80% to win) — 5.9 points of value on MSST versus the market line of -17.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
TA&M (top)MSST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: TA&M 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- MSST pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. TA&M pass defense (0.10 allowed) — edge MSST.
- TA&M pass offense (0.38 PPA) vs. MSST pass defense (0.30 allowed) — edge TA&M.
- MSST rush offense (0.11 PPA) vs. TA&M rush defense (0.15 allowed) — edge TA&M.
Drive-by-drive
MSST 2/12 scoring drives← own end zone →TA&M 5/13 scoring drives
MSSTPUNT4 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q1
TA&MPUNT8 pl, 31 yds· own 15Q1
MSSTFG15 pl, 22 yds· own 11Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
TA&M up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
88%
TA&M went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M?
Mississippi State 9, Texas A&M 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TA&M) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had TA&M pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.