Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MSSTTeam statsTA&M
- Q4 4:41TA&MRandy Bond 27 Yd Field Goal 9–31
- Q4 7:53MSSTBrenen Thompson 44 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)9–28
- Q4 9:13TA&MMario Craver 7 Yd Run (Randy Bond Kick)3–28
- Q4 11:38TA&MMarcel Reed 7 Yd Run (Randy Bond Kick)3–21
- Q3 3:30TA&MKC Concepcion 2 Yd pass from Marcel Reed (Randy Bond Kick)3–14
- Q2 1:51TA&MKC Concepcion 34 Yd pass from Marcel Reed (Randy Bond Kick)3–7
- Q1 4:21MSSTKyle Ferrie 24 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MSST played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and TA&M did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.9 vs 3rd & 5.3
- PassBlake Shapen 15/20, 142 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushFluff Bothwell 14 CAR, 60 YDS
- RecBrenen Thompson 2 REC, 54 YDS, 1 TD
- PassMarcel Reed 13/23, 180 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushRueben Owens II 21 CAR, 142 YDS
- RecMario Craver 6 REC, 80 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTA&M up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 1:51TA&M +19%
KC Concepcion 34 Yd pass from Marcel Reed (Randy Bond Kick)
- Q3 3:30TA&M +13%
KC Concepcion 2 Yd pass from Marcel Reed (Randy Bond Kick)
- Q1 4:21MSST +9%
Kyle Ferrie 24 Yd Field Goal
- Q3 5:38TA&M +6%
Rueben Owens II run for 17 yds to the MSST 45 for a 1ST down
- Q3 5:49MSST +6%
Ethan Pulliam punt for 58 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TA&M 38, KC Concepcion returns for 13 yds to the TA&M 38
FAQ
What was the final score of Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M?
Mississippi State 9, Texas A&M 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TA&M) was correct.
| MSST | TA&M | |
|---|---|---|
| 219 | Total yards | 479 |
| 142 | Passing yards | 180 |
| 77 | Rushing yards | 299 |
| 14 | First downs | 23 |
| 1-10 | 3rd down | 7-15 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 15/20 | Comp/Att | 13/23 |
| 7.1 | Yards per pass | 7.8 |
| 2.5 | Yards per rush | 5.5 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-35 | Penalties | 9-66 |
| 21:43 | Possession | 38:17 |
Costliest call
Q3 5:49 MSST punt on 4th & 1 at MSST 17. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.85 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:41TA&MRandy Bond 27 Yd Field Goal 9–31
- Q4 7:53MSSTBrenen Thompson 44 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)9–28
- Q4 9:13TA&MMario Craver 7 Yd Run (Randy Bond Kick)3–28
- Q4 11:38TA&MMarcel Reed 7 Yd Run (Randy Bond Kick)3–21
- Q3 3:30TA&MKC Concepcion 2 Yd pass from Marcel Reed (Randy Bond Kick)3–14
- Q2 1:51TA&MKC Concepcion 34 Yd pass from Marcel Reed (Randy Bond Kick)3–7
- Q1 4:21MSSTKyle Ferrie 24 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TA&M Elo 1753, MSST Elo 1523 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TA&M -11.6 (78% to win) — 5.9 points clear of MSST's market line of -17.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesTexas A&M leads 10–9 · Texas A&M has won 3 straight · 26% have been one-possession games
| MSST | TA&M | |
|---|---|---|
| +0.1 (#64) | CORE overall | +22.7 (#9) |
| -1 / -1 | offense / defense | +12 / -11 |
| 2.07 | points / drive | 2.65 |
| 2.54 | allowed / drive | 1.67 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| -4 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →