Sat, Oct 4, 11:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSST | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| TA&M | 0 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 31 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (TA&M Elo 1753, MSST Elo 1523) plus home-field advantage. That projects TA&M -11.6 (80% to win) — 5.9 points of value on MSST versus the market line of -17.5.
TA&M up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Mississippi State 9, Texas A&M 31.
Yes — the model's pick (TA&M) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had TA&M pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Rueben Owens II run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 2
Mario Craver run for 28 yds to the MSST 34 for a 1ST down
Brenen Thompson 44 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
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