California Memorial StadiumClosing line: MINN +-3 · CAL covered
Sun, Sep 14, 2:30 AM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MINN | 0 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 14 |
| CAL | 7 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 27 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (CAL Elo 1554, MINN Elo 1625) plus home-field advantage. That projects CAL +0.4 (49% to win) — 2.6 points of value on CAL versus the market line of +3.
CAL up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Minnesota 14, California 27.
No — the model picked MINN, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had MINN pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jaiven Plummer for 51 yds to the MINN 39 for a 1ST down
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to QuaRon Adams for 20 yds to the MINN 45 for a 1ST down
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 19 yds to the MINN 30 for a 1ST down
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →