Minnesota vs. California: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MINNTeam statsCAL
- Q4 1:10CALChase Meyer 38 Yd Field Goal 14–27
- Q4 6:55CALJordan King 2 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick)14–24
- Q3 0:20CALMason Mini 9 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick)14–17
- Q3 4:36MINNJameson Geers 3 Yd pass from Drake Lindsey (Brady Denaburg Kick)14–10
- Q2 0:00CALAbram Murray 45 Yd Field Goal7–10
- Q2 0:43MINNCam Davis 1 Yd Run (Brady Denaburg Kick)7–7
- Q1 2:54CALJacob De Jesus 3 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassDrake Lindsey 19/32, 205 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushFame Ijeboi 16 CAR, 85 YDS
- RecLe'Meke Brockington 8 REC, 106 YDS
- PassJaron-Keawe Sagapolutele 24/38, 279 YDS, 3 TD
- RushKendrick Raphael 13 CAR, 42 YDS
- RecTrond Grizzell 4 REC, 60 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCAL up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 4:36MINN +29%
Jameson Geers 3 Yd pass from Drake Lindsey (Brady Denaburg Kick)
- Q2 0:43MINN +23%
Cam Davis 1 Yd Run (Brady Denaburg Kick)
- Q4 6:55CAL +20%
Jordan King 2 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick)
- Q3 0:20CAL +19%
Mason Mini 9 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick)
- Q1 2:54CAL +19%
Jacob De Jesus 3 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick)
- Q4 8:37CAL +17%
California Penalty, false start (Braden Miller) to the CAL 47
FAQ
What was the final score of Minnesota vs. California?
Minnesota 14, California 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (CAL) was correct.
| MINN | CAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 335 | Total yards | 340 |
| 205 | Passing yards | 279 |
| 130 | Rushing yards | 61 |
| 19 | First downs | 19 |
| 7-15 | 3rd down | 6-13 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 19/32 | Comp/Att | 24/39 |
| 6.4 | Yards per pass | 7.2 |
| 3.5 | Yards per rush | 2.5 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 8-85 | Penalties | 8-59 |
| 33:56 | Possession | 26:04 |
Costliest call
Q1 5:24 MINN punt on 4th & 3 at MINN 10. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.16 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:10CALChase Meyer 38 Yd Field Goal 14–27
- Q4 6:55CALJordan King 2 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick)14–24
- Q3 0:20CALMason Mini 9 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick)14–17
- Q3 4:36MINNJameson Geers 3 Yd pass from Drake Lindsey (Brady Denaburg Kick)14–10
- Q2 0:00CALAbram Murray 45 Yd Field Goal7–10
- Q2 0:43MINNCam Davis 1 Yd Run (Brady Denaburg Kick)7–7
- Q1 2:54CALJacob De Jesus 3 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CAL Elo 1554, MINN Elo 1625 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CAL +0.4 (50% to win) — 2.6 points clear of CAL's market line of +3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| MINN | CAL | |
|---|---|---|
| -10.1 (#96) | CORE overall | -6.6 (#85) |
| -7 / +3 | offense / defense | -4 / +3 |
| 1.72 | points / drive | 2.06 |
| 2.38 | allowed / drive | 2.48 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| +10 | pass over expected | +12 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →