Miami (OH) vs. Rutgers: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
M-OHTeam statsRUTG
- Q4 1:53RUTGAntwan Raymond 4 Yd Run (Jai Patel Kick)17–45
- Q4 5:42RUTGDT Sheffield 5 Yd pass from Athan Kaliakmanis (Jai Patel Kick)17–38
- Q3 6:08RUTGIan Strong 17 Yd pass from Athan Kaliakmanis (Jai Patel Kick)17–31
- Q3 10:21M-OHDequan Finn 5 Yd Run (Dom Dzioban Kick)17–24
- Q2 0:02M-OHDom Dzioban 40 Yd Field Goal 10–24
- Q2 1:20RUTGKJ Duff 11 Yd pass from Athan Kaliakmanis (Jai Patel Kick)7–24
- Q2 8:18RUTGAntwan Raymond 2 Yd Run (Jai Patel Kick)7–17
- Q2 12:34RUTGJai Patel 39 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 5:11M-OHD'Shawntae Jones 1 Yd Run (Dom Dzioban Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:25RUTGIan Strong 14 Yd pass from Athan Kaliakmanis (Jai Patel Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassDequan Finn 14/23, 251 YDS, 1 INT
- RushDequan Finn 11 CAR, 85 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKeith Reynolds 7 REC, 120 YDS
- PassAthan Kaliakmanis 26/36, 259 YDS, 4 TD
- RushAntwan Raymond 13 CAR, 82 YDS, 2 TD
- RecIan Strong 9 REC, 116 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsRUTG up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 5:11M-OH +17%
D'Shawntae Jones run for 1 yd for a TD (Dom Dzioban KICK)
- Q1 7:25RUTG +17%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 14 yds for a TD (Jai Patel KICK)
- Q2 8:18RUTG +17%
Antwan Raymond run for 2 yds for a TD (Jai Patel KICK)
- Q3 10:21M-OH +15%
Rutgers Penalty, Defensive Holding (Yards) declined
- Q3 6:08RUTG +14%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 17 yds for a TD (Jai Patel KICK)
- Q2 1:20RUTG +9%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 11 yds for a TD Miami (OH) Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Keith Reynolds) declined (Jai Patel KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Miami (OH) vs. Rutgers?
Miami (OH) 17, Rutgers 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (RUTG) was correct.
| M-OH | RUTG | |
|---|---|---|
| 368 | Total yards | 421 |
| 251 | Passing yards | 259 |
| 117 | Rushing yards | 162 |
| 14 | First downs | 31 |
| 3-8 | 3rd down | 7-10 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 14/23 | Comp/Att | 26/36 |
| 10.9 | Yards per pass | 7.2 |
| 5.3 | Yards per rush | 4.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 10-94 | Penalties | 2-14 |
| 20:54 | Possession | 39:06 |
Costliest call
Q4 12:11 M-OH punt on 4th & 4 at M-OH 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.14 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:53RUTGAntwan Raymond 4 Yd Run (Jai Patel Kick)17–45
- Q4 5:42RUTGDT Sheffield 5 Yd pass from Athan Kaliakmanis (Jai Patel Kick)17–38
- Q3 6:08RUTGIan Strong 17 Yd pass from Athan Kaliakmanis (Jai Patel Kick)17–31
- Q3 10:21M-OHDequan Finn 5 Yd Run (Dom Dzioban Kick)17–24
- Q2 0:02M-OHDom Dzioban 40 Yd Field Goal 10–24
- Q2 1:20RUTGKJ Duff 11 Yd pass from Athan Kaliakmanis (Jai Patel Kick)7–24
- Q2 8:18RUTGAntwan Raymond 2 Yd Run (Jai Patel Kick)7–17
- Q2 12:34RUTGJai Patel 39 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 5:11M-OHD'Shawntae Jones 1 Yd Run (Dom Dzioban Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:25RUTGIan Strong 14 Yd pass from Athan Kaliakmanis (Jai Patel Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (RUTG Elo 1524, M-OH Elo 1491 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects RUTG -3.7 (61% to win) — 11.8 points clear of M-OH's market line of -15.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| M-OH | RUTG | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.0 (#81) | CORE overall | -4.9 (#79) |
| -7 / -1 | offense / defense | +10 / +14 |
| 1.96 | points / drive | 2.60 |
| 1.91 | allowed / drive | 3.60 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →