| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M-OH | 7 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 17 |
| RUTG | 7 | 17 | 7 | 14 | 45 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (RUTG Elo 1524, M-OH Elo 1491) plus home-field advantage. That projects RUTG -3.7 (61% to win) — 11.8 points of value on M-OH versus the market line of -15.5.
RUTG up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Miami (OH) 17, Rutgers 45.
Yes — the model's pick (RUTG) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had RUTG pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Dequan Finn pass complete to Kam Perry for 62 yds to the RUTG 1 for a 1ST down
Dequan Finn pass complete to Keith Reynolds for 69 yds to the RUTG 15 for a 1ST down
Antwan Raymond run for a loss of 3 yards to the M-OH 24
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