Miami (OH) vs. Fresno State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
M-OHTeam statsFRES
- Q4 2:56FRESDylan Lynch 37 Yd Field Goal 3–18
- Q4 11:12FRESRichie Anderson III 2 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)3–15
- Q2 0:00FRESDylan Lynch 25 Yd Field Goal 3–9
- Q2 5:00FRESDylan Lynch 23 Yd Field Goal 3–6
- Q2 7:54FRESDylan Lynch 28 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 9:09M-OHDom Dzioban 33 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = M-OH ahead, below = FRES ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
- PassThomas Gotkowski 6/22, 72 YDS, 1 INT
- RushKeith Reynolds 3 CAR, 46 YDS
- RecCole Weaver 2 REC, 43 YDS
- PassE.J. Warner 15/22, 219 YDS, 1 TD
- RushBrandon Ramirez 11 CAR, 53 YDS
- RecJosiah Freeman 7 REC, 143 YDS
FAQ
What was the final score of Miami (OH) vs. Fresno State?
Miami (OH) 3, Fresno State 18.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (FRES) was correct.
| M-OH | FRES | |
|---|---|---|
| 192 | Total yards | 396 |
| 72 | Passing yards | 219 |
| 120 | Rushing yards | 177 |
| 12 | First downs | 18 |
| 4-12 | 3rd down | 6-16 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 6/22 | Comp/Att | 15/22 |
| 3.3 | Yards per pass | 10.0 |
| 4.6 | Yards per rush | 3.6 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-39 | Penalties | 8-70 |
| 21:20 | Possession | 38:40 |
- Q4 2:56FRESDylan Lynch 37 Yd Field Goal 3–18
- Q4 11:12FRESRichie Anderson III 2 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)3–15
- Q2 0:00FRESDylan Lynch 25 Yd Field Goal 3–9
- Q2 5:00FRESDylan Lynch 23 Yd Field Goal 3–6
- Q2 7:54FRESDylan Lynch 28 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 9:09M-OHDom Dzioban 33 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FRES Elo 1517, M-OH Elo 1431 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects FRES -3.4 (60% to win) — 2.1 points clear of M-OH's market line of -5.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| M-OH | FRES | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.0 (#81) | CORE overall | -3.4 (#73) |
| -7 / -1 | offense / defense | -7 / -4 |
| 1.96 | points / drive | 1.67 |
| 1.91 | allowed / drive | 1.49 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| -1 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →