Arizona StadiumNeutral siteClosing line: FRES -5.5 · FRES covered
Sat, Dec 27, 9:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M-OH | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| FRES | 0 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 18 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (FRES Elo 1517, M-OH Elo 1431) on a neutral field. That projects FRES -3.4 (60% to win) — 2.1 points of value on M-OH versus the market line of -5.5.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = M-OH ahead, below = FRES ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
FRES up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Miami (OH) 3, Fresno State 18.
Yes — the model's pick (FRES) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had FRES pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(01:22) Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FSU22 fumbled by #6 J.Brunson at FSU22 forced by #39 J.Pearson recovered by FSU #1 J.Embry at FSU22, End Of Play
(10:45) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short right to #5 J.Freeman caught at FSU18, for 51 yards to the MIA28 (#8 K.Beasley; #6 A.Walker Jr.), 1ST DOWN
End of 2nd quarter.
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