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Miami (OH) vs. Buffalo: Final Score & Recap
Thu, Nov 20, 12:00 AM
UB StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M-OH | 0 | 17 | 14 | 6 | 37 |
| BUF | 3 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 20 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
BUF 1318
M-OH 1421
Projected spread
BUF +1.7
incl. home edge
Model pick
M-OH
55% to win
Market spread
BUF +2.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
45%
BUF · market 46%
Our model blends Elo ratings (BUF Elo 1318, M-OH Elo 1421) plus home-field advantage. That projects BUF +1.7 (45% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
BUF (top)M-OH (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: BUF 0%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
M-OH2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedBUF
Offense
0.10
PPA / play
0.0739%
Success rate
39%1.23
Explosiveness
1.203.34
Pts / opportunity
3.5066%
Power success
69%Defense
0.08
PPA allowed / play
0.1239%
Success rate allowed
39%1.19
Explosiveness allowed
1.2318%
Havoc rate
15%20%
Stuff rate
17%Key matchups · Pro
- BUF rush offense (-0.03 PPA) vs. M-OH rush defense (0.05 allowed) — edge M-OH.
- M-OH pass offense (0.18 PPA) vs. BUF pass defense (0.23 allowed) — edge BUF.
- M-OH rush offense (0.07 PPA) vs. BUF rush defense (0.05 allowed) — edge M-OH.
Drive-by-drive
M-OH 7/16 scoring drives← own end zone →BUF 4/16 scoring drives
M-OHPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 25Q1
BUFPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 31Q1
M-OHPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 9Q1
BUFINT4 pl, 11 yds· opp 49Q1
M-OHPUNT3 pl, 14 yds· own 36Q1
BUFFG13 pl, 77 yds· own 8Q1
M-OHTD5 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
BUFPUNT5 pl, 16 yds· own 33Q2
M-OHPUNT8 pl, 21 yds· own 9Q2
BUFPUNT3 pl, -6 yds· own 33Q2
M-OHTD7 pl, 62 yds· own 38Q2
BUFINT1 pl, -5 yds· own 25Q2
M-OHFG4 pl, -3 yds· opp 22Q2
BUFTD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
M-OHEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 30Q2
BUFTD6 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
M-OHDOWNS5 pl, 20 yds· own 39Q3
BUFFG8 pl, 30 yds· own 41Q3
M-OHTD3 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
BUFPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q3
M-OHPUNT5 pl, 17 yds· own 30Q3
BUFPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 12Q3
M-OHTD2 pl, 27 yds· opp 27Q3
BUFPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 22Q3
M-OHPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 41Q4
BUFPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 13Q4
M-OHFG7 pl, 25 yds· opp 45Q4
BUFDOWNS10 pl, 17 yds· own 25Q4
M-OHFG6 pl, 11 yds· opp 42Q4
BUFFUM6 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q4
M-OHDOWNS4 pl, -5 yds· opp 28Q4
BUFEND2 pl, 17 yds· own 33Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
M-OH up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
88%
M-OH went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Miami (OH) vs. Buffalo?
Miami (OH) 37, Buffalo 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (M-OH) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had M-OH pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.