| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M-OH | 0 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 20 |
| AKR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (AKR Elo 1009, M-OH Elo 1449) plus home-field advantage. That projects AKR +15.2 (13% to win) — 3.7 points of value on M-OH versus the market line of +11.5.
M-OH up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Miami (OH) 20, Akron 7.
Yes — the model's pick (M-OH) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had M-OH pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Dequan Finn pass complete to Kam Perry for 60 yds for a TD (Dom Dzioban KICK)
Ben Finley pass intercepted Adam Trick return for 9 yds to the M-OH 10
Jordan Brunson run for a loss of 1 yard to the AKR 21
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