Merrimack vs. Kent State: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Merrimack

0017

Kent State

▸0021

Final

Dix Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
MERR	0	3	3	11	17
KENT	0	7	7	7	21

MERRTeam statsKENT

340Total yards305

176Pass209

164Rush96

17First downs15

3-143rd down5-14

0Turnovers1

31:31Possession28:24

Scoring plays

• Q4 5:28KENTDa'Realyst Clark 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Will Hryszko Kick)17–21
• Q4 5:40MERRCarlton Thai 45 Yd Field Goal 17–14
• Q4 8:38MERRSeth Sweitzer 36 Yd pass from Ayden Pereira (Aveon Smith Pass to Cade Callahan for Two-Point Conversion)14–14
• Q3 2:26MERRCarlton Thai 37 Yd Field Goal 6–14
• Q3 9:56KENTCade Wolford 79 Yd pass from Dru DeShields (Will Hryszko Kick)3–14
• Q2 0:01MERRCarlton Thai 26 Yd Field Goal 3–7
• Q2 3:24KENTCade Wolford 30 Yd pass from CJ Montes (Will Hryszko Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

KENT −5.5

Against the number

MERR covered

line KENT −5.5

What the numbers say

• MERR lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 12% explosive on a 33% success rate

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

KENT 100%50%MERR 100%

Kickoff152 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

KENT (top)MERR (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: KENT 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

KENT −5.5

Closing total

50.5

Model line

—

Actual result

MERR 17 – 21 KENT

Leaders

Merrimack

• PassAyden Pereira 15/31, 176 YDS, 1 TD
• RushAyden Pereira 19 CAR, 103 YDS
• RecSeth Sweitzer 3 REC, 59 YDS, 1 TD

Kent State

• PassDru DeShields 6/10, 118 YDS, 1 TD
• RushGavin Garcia 15 CAR, 49 YDS
• RecCade Wolford 2 REC, 109 YDS, 2 TD

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

KENT up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,588 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

85%

KENT went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WMontana vs Butler35-20WCampbell vs Monmouth37-31WKansas vs BYU38-27WLSU vs Arkansas34-31WTulane vs UAB35-23

Fourth downs

20 calls

MERR gave up 1.4 points to the model on fourth down.MERR 8/11 · KENT 5/8 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Merrimack vs. Kent State?

Merrimack 17, Kent State 21.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (KENT) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

MERR

KENT

33%

Success rate

35%

0.07

EPA / pass

0.61

0.08

EPA / rush

-0.19

37%

Early-down success

36%

38%

Pass success

41%

28%

Rush success

31%

12%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

12%

25%

Stuffed rush rate

17%

52%

Pass rate

39%

7.6

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.6

MERR

7.6 yards to go on 3rd down

66 scrimmage snaps

KENT

6.6 yards to go on 3rd down

57 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

MERR		KENT
340	Total yards	305
176	Passing yards	209
164	Rushing yards	96
17	First downs	15
3-14	3rd down	5-14
0-1	4th down	0-1
15/31	Comp/Att	12/19
5.7	Yards per pass	11.0
4.7	Yards per rush	2.6
0	Turnovers	1
11-115	Penalties	8-65
31:31	Possession	28:24

Fourth downs

20 calls

MERR

8/11 with the model

−1.4 pts · −0.0% win prob

KENT

5/8 with the model

−1.0 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q2 14:16 MERR punt on 4th & 2 at midfield. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.01 points.

Every call, priced (20)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

MERR 4/13 scoring drives← own end zone →KENT 2/12 scoring drives

MERRPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 12Q1

KENTDOWNS4 pl, 9 yds· opp 48Q1

MERRPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 39Q1

KENTMISS14 pl, 79 yds· own 11Q1

MERRPUNT4 pl, 30 yds· own 20Q1

KENTPUNT5 pl, 36 yds· own 20Q2

MERRPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 8Q2

KENTPUNT4 pl, 6 yds· own 34Q2

MERRPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 27Q2

KENTTD6 pl, 76 yds· own 24Q2

MERRPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q2

KENTPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 38Q2

MERRFG8 pl, 80 yds· own 11Q2

KENTPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 15Q3

MERRMISS7 pl, 28 yds· opp 47Q3

KENTPUNT4 pl, 20 yds· own 26Q3

KENTTD2 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q3

MERRFG14 pl, 55 yds· own 25Q3

MERRDOWNS11 pl, 34 yds· own 25Q4

MERRPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 12Q3

KENTEND4 pl, 8 yds· own 41Q4

KENTPUNT5 pl, 18 yds· own 31Q4

MERRTD4 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4

KENTFUM3 pl, -6 yds· own 25Q4

MERRFG4 pl, 6 yds· opp 34Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 5:28KENTDa'Realyst Clark 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Will Hryszko Kick)17–21
• Q4 5:40MERRCarlton Thai 45 Yd Field Goal 17–14
• Q4 8:38MERRSeth Sweitzer 36 Yd pass from Ayden Pereira (Aveon Smith Pass to Cade Callahan for Two-Point Conversion)14–14
• Q3 2:26MERRCarlton Thai 37 Yd Field Goal 6–14
• Q3 9:56KENTCade Wolford 79 Yd pass from Dru DeShields (Will Hryszko Kick)3–14
• Q2 0:01MERRCarlton Thai 26 Yd Field Goal 3–7
• Q2 3:24KENTCade Wolford 30 Yd pass from CJ Montes (Will Hryszko Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →