McNeese vs. Utah State: Final Score & Recap

CommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

McNeese0-1

07

Utah State2-1

▸0048

Final

Maverik Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
MCNE	0	7	0	0	7
USU	13	21	14	0	48

MCNETeam statsUSU

239Total yards627

130Pass293

109Rush334

13First downs27

6-183rd down6-12

0Turnovers2

28:46Possession31:14

Scoring plays

• Q3 3:36USUBrady Boyd 9 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Tanner Rinker Kick)7–48
• Q3 9:44USUBryson Barnes 21 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)7–41
• Q2 0:29USUJaven Jacobs 1 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)7–34
• Q2 1:35USUBryson Barnes 3 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)7–27
• Q2 6:05MCNEJonathan Harris 20 Yd pass from Jake Strong (Fabrizio Pinton Kick)7–20
• Q2 8:03USUMiles Davis 30 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)0–20
• Q1 4:04USUBrady Boyd 53 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Tanner Rinker Kick)0–13
• Q1 5:53USUKahanu Davis 45 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)0–6

How the model called it

Market line

USU −24

Against the number

USU covered

line USU −24

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

MCNE aheadUSU ahead

Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = MCNE ahead, below = USU ahead.

GRIDPEX.COM

Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

USU −24

Closing total

63.0

Model line

—

Actual result

MCNE 7 – 48 USU

Leaders

McNeese

• PassJake Strong 7/23, 89 YDS, 1 TD
• RushTre'Vonte Citizen 12 CAR, 71 YDS
• RecJonathan Harris 1 REC, 20 YDS, 1 TD

Utah State

• PassBryson Barnes 19/27, 293 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
• RushBryson Barnes 13 CAR, 128 YDS, 2 TD
• RecBraden Pegan 3 REC, 95 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

23.2sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

148

Points / snap

0.37

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

USU up 41 entering the 4th quarter. Across 198 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

USU went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WWashington vs Michigan State41-7WClemson vs Florida Atlantic48-14WUCF vs Villanova48-14WStephen F. Austin vs Northwestern State41-7WDuke vs UConn41-7

Fourth downs

15 calls

MCNE gave up 1.7 points to the model on fourth down.MCNE 8/11 · USU 1/3 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of McNeese vs. Utah State?

McNeese 7, Utah State 48.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (USU) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

MCNE

USU

23%

Success rate

58%

-0.04

EPA / pass

0.57

-0.03

EPA / rush

0.28

17%

Early-down success

58%

29%

Pass success

53%

17%

Rush success

60%

9%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

15%

17%

Stuffed rush rate

10%

49%

Pass rate

39%

7.0

Avg 3rd-down distance

5.6

MCNE

7.0 yards to go on 3rd down

70 scrimmage snaps

USU

5.6 yards to go on 3rd down

78 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

MCNE		USU
239	Total yards	627
130	Passing yards	293
109	Rushing yards	334
13	First downs	27
6-18	3rd down	6-12
2-4	4th down	1-1
11/28	Comp/Att	19/28
4.6	Yards per pass	10.5
2.7	Yards per rush	7.1
0	Turnovers	2
3-22	Penalties	6-55
28:46	Possession	31:14

Fourth downs

15 calls

MCNE

8/11 with the model

−1.7 pts · −0.0% win prob

USU

1/3 with the model

−1.0 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q4 12:26 MCNE go for it on 4th & 10 at USU 12. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.81 points.

Every call, priced (15)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

MCNE 1/12 scoring drives← own end zone →USU 7/12 scoring drives

USUFUM15 pl, 70 yds· own 25Q1

MCNEPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 20Q1

USUTD8 pl, 61 yds· own 39Q1

MCNEPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 21Q1

USUTD2 pl, 58 yds· own 42Q1

MCNEPUNT5 pl, 12 yds· own 25Q1

USUINT7 pl, 10 yds· own 14Q1

MCNEPUNT6 pl, 25 yds· own 28Q2

USUPUNT5 pl, 19 yds· own 11Q2

MCNEPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 5Q2

USUTD4 pl, 46 yds· opp 46Q2

MCNETD4 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2

USUTD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2

MCNEPUNT3 pl, -6 yds· own 25Q2

USUTD5 pl, 52 yds· own 48Q2

MCNEEND1 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q2

MCNEPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q3

USUTD8 pl, 69 yds· own 31Q3

MCNEPUNT9 pl, 25 yds· own 25Q3

USUTD4 pl, 89 yds· own 11Q3

MCNEDOWNS17 pl, 55 yds· own 25Q3

USUPUNT4 pl, 27 yds· own 20Q4

MCNEDOWNS13 pl, 48 yds· own 20Q4

USUUncateg6 pl, 13 yds· own 32Q4

Scoring plays

• Q3 3:36USUBrady Boyd 9 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Tanner Rinker Kick)7–48
• Q3 9:44USUBryson Barnes 21 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)7–41
• Q2 0:29USUJaven Jacobs 1 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)7–34
• Q2 1:35USUBryson Barnes 3 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)7–27
• Q2 6:05MCNEJonathan Harris 20 Yd pass from Jake Strong (Fabrizio Pinton Kick)7–20
• Q2 8:03USUMiles Davis 30 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)0–20
• Q1 4:04USUBrady Boyd 53 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Tanner Rinker Kick)0–13
• Q1 5:53USUKahanu Davis 45 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)0–6

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →