| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MD | 7 | 13 | 0 | 7 | 27 |
| WIS | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (WIS Elo 1591, MD Elo 1526) plus home-field advantage. That projects WIS -5 (64% to win) — 5.5 points of value on MD versus the market line of -10.5.
MD up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Maryland 27, Wisconsin 10.
No — the model picked WIS, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had WIS pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Malik Washington pass complete to Shaleak Knotts for 62 yds for a TD (Sean O'Haire KICK)
Danny O'Neil sacked by Cam Rice for a loss of 19 yards to the MD 40
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Trech Kekahuna for 45 yds to the MD 25 for a 1ST down
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