| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MD | 7 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 20 |
| RUTG | 0 | 21 | 7 | 7 | 35 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (RUTG Elo 1419, MD Elo 1506) plus home-field advantage. That projects RUTG +1.1 (47% to win) — 2.6 points of value on MD versus the market line of -1.5.
RUTG up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Maryland 20, Rutgers 35.
No — the model picked MD, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had MD pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
(14:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington rush right for 73 yards gain to the RUT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:23, 1ST DOWN #36 S.O'Haire kick attempt good (H: #34 B.McFerson, LS: #96 E.Gough)
(07:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Kaliakmanis pass intercepted by #13 L.Scruggs at MD01 #13 L.Scruggs return 0 yards to the MD01 (#9 I.Strong)
(11:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Kaliakmanis pass complete deep left to #8 K.Duff caught at MD25, for 49 yards to the MD15 (#14 J.Glasker), 1ST DOWN
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