Maryland vs. Rutgers: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MDTeam statsRUTG
- Q4 4:10RUTGAntwan Raymond 5 Yd Run (Jai Patel Kick)20–35
- Q4 13:34MDSean O'Haire 44 Yd Field Goal 20–28
- Q3 10:26RUTGIan Strong 14 Yd pass from Athan Kaliakmanis (Jai Patel Kick)17–28
- Q2 0:34RUTGIan Strong 5 Yd pass from Athan Kaliakmanis (Jai Patel Kick)17–21
- Q2 3:08MDKaleb Webb 21 Yd pass from Malik Washington (Sean O'Haire Kick)17–14
- Q2 4:14RUTGIan Strong 45 Yd pass from Athan Kaliakmanis (Jai Patel Kick)10–14
- Q2 5:53MDSean O'Haire 27 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q2 11:56RUTGDT Sheffield 9 Yd pass from Athan Kaliakmanis (Jai Patel Kick)7–7
- Q1 14:23MDMalik Washington 73 Yd Run (Sean O'Haire Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MD lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 39% success rate
- PassMalik Washington 15/28, 98 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushMalik Washington 8 CAR, 164 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDorian Fleming 4 REC, 39 YDS
- PassAthan Kaliakmanis 13/20, 229 YDS, 4 TD, 2 INT
- RushAntwan Raymond 41 CAR, 240 YDS, 1 TD
- RecIan Strong 5 REC, 88 YDS, 3 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsRUTG up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 3:08MD +23%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete deep left to #84 K.Webb caught at RUT01, for 21 yards to the RUT00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 4:14RUTG +23%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Kaliakmanis pass complete deep right to #9 I.Strong caught at MD10, for 45 yards to the MD00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 11:56RUTG +20%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Kaliakmanis pass complete short left to #0 D.Sheffield caught at MD09, for 9 yards to the MD00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 14:23MD +17%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington rush right for 73 yards gain to the RUT00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 13:34MD +12%
#36 S.O'Haire field goal attempt from 44 yards GOOD
- Q4 3:35MD +11%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short right to #1 J.Farooq caught at MD25, for 2 yards to the MD27 (#10 J.Henderson)
FAQ
What was the final score of Maryland vs. Rutgers?
Maryland 20, Rutgers 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MD, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MD | RUTG | |
|---|---|---|
| 403 | Total yards | 485 |
| 98 | Passing yards | 229 |
| 305 | Rushing yards | 256 |
| 14 | First downs | 25 |
| 4-12 | 3rd down | 8-12 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 15/28 | Comp/Att | 13/20 |
| 3.5 | Yards per pass | 11.5 |
| 10.5 | Yards per rush | 5.2 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 5-45 | Penalties | 1-5 |
| 25:02 | Possession | 34:58 |
Costliest call
Q1 1:09 RUTG punt on 4th & 2 at RUTG 27. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.44 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:10RUTGAntwan Raymond 5 Yd Run (Jai Patel Kick)20–35
- Q4 13:34MDSean O'Haire 44 Yd Field Goal 20–28
- Q3 10:26RUTGIan Strong 14 Yd pass from Athan Kaliakmanis (Jai Patel Kick)17–28
- Q2 0:34RUTGIan Strong 5 Yd pass from Athan Kaliakmanis (Jai Patel Kick)17–21
- Q2 3:08MDKaleb Webb 21 Yd pass from Malik Washington (Sean O'Haire Kick)17–14
- Q2 4:14RUTGIan Strong 45 Yd pass from Athan Kaliakmanis (Jai Patel Kick)10–14
- Q2 5:53MDSean O'Haire 27 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q2 11:56RUTGDT Sheffield 9 Yd pass from Athan Kaliakmanis (Jai Patel Kick)7–7
- Q1 14:23MDMalik Washington 73 Yd Run (Sean O'Haire Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (RUTG Elo 1419, MD Elo 1506 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects RUTG +1.1 (48% to win) — 2.6 points clear of MD's market line of -1.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMaryland leads 12–9 · Rutgers has won 2 straight · 33% have been one-possession games
| MD | RUTG | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.8 (#75) | CORE overall | -4.9 (#79) |
| -7 / -4 | offense / defense | +10 / +14 |
| 1.74 | points / drive | 2.60 |
| 2.30 | allowed / drive | 3.60 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +14 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →