Maryland vs. Illinois: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MDTeam statsILL
- Q4 4:19ILLDavid Olano 33 Yd Field Goal 6–24
- Q3 10:55ILLHudson Clement 23 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (David Olano Kick)6–21
- Q2 1:38ILLKaden Feagin 3 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)6–14
- Q2 6:12MDSean O'Haire 43 Yd Field Goal 6–7
- Q1 0:00ILLHudson Clement 22 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (David Olano Kick)3–7
- Q1 9:15MDSean O'Haire 29 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassMalik Washington 25/46, 238 YDS, 1 INT
- RushDeJuan Williams 9 CAR, 43 YDS
- RecShaleak Knotts 4 REC, 62 YDS
- PassLuke Altmyer 15/25, 172 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushKaden Feagin 14 CAR, 81 YDS, 1 TD
- RecHudson Clement 3 REC, 72 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsILL up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,206 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 0:00ILL +18%
Hudson Clement 22 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (David Olano Kick)
- Q2 1:38ILL +17%
Kaden Feagin 3 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)
- Q2 6:12MD +11%
#36 S.O'Haire field goal attempt from 43 yards GOOD
- Q3 10:55ILL +9%
Hudson Clement 23 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (David Olano Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of Maryland vs. Illinois?
Maryland 6, Illinois 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ILL) was correct.
| MD | ILL | |
|---|---|---|
| 293 | Total yards | 397 |
| 238 | Passing yards | 172 |
| 55 | Rushing yards | 225 |
| 18 | First downs | 24 |
| 3-12 | 3rd down | 7-13 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 25/46 | Comp/Att | 15/25 |
| 5.2 | Yards per pass | 6.9 |
| 3.1 | Yards per rush | 4.7 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-40 | Penalties | 4-30 |
| 24:03 | Possession | 35:57 |
Costliest call
Q2 1:00 MD punt on 4th & 6 at ILL 41. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.55 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:19ILLDavid Olano 33 Yd Field Goal 6–24
- Q3 10:55ILLHudson Clement 23 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (David Olano Kick)6–21
- Q2 1:38ILLKaden Feagin 3 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)6–14
- Q2 6:12MDSean O'Haire 43 Yd Field Goal 6–7
- Q1 0:00ILLHudson Clement 22 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (David Olano Kick)3–7
- Q1 9:15MDSean O'Haire 29 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ILL Elo 1603, MD Elo 1467 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ILL -7.8 (71% to win) — 8.2 points clear of MD's market line of -16. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| MD | ILL | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.8 (#75) | CORE overall | +11.1 (#36) |
| -7 / -4 | offense / defense | +10 / -1 |
| 1.74 | points / drive | 2.76 |
| 2.30 | allowed / drive | 2.56 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| +14 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →