| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MD | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| ILL | 7 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 24 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (ILL Elo 1603, MD Elo 1467) plus home-field advantage. That projects ILL -7.8 (72% to win) — 8.2 points of value on MD versus the market line of -16.
ILL up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,206 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Maryland 6, Illinois 24.
Yes — the model's pick (ILL) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had ILL pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(01:36) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass incomplete short right to #80 H.Beatty thrown to UMD00 QB hurried by #32 C.Smith, TURNOVER ON DOWNS
(10:17) Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass incomplete short right to #9 D.Fleming thrown to ILL00, TURNOVER ON DOWNS
(14:29) Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short middle to #4 S.Knotts caught at ILL39, for 16 yards to the ILL39, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN
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