Maine vs. Liberty: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Maine

07

Liberty

▸0028

Final

Williams Stadium (VA)

	1	2	3	4	T
MAIN	0	7	0	0	7
LIB	0	7	0	21	28

MAINTeam statsLIB

316Total yards391

132Pass197

184Rush194

15First downs22

2-113rd down11-19

2Turnovers0

26:26Possession33:34

Scoring plays

• Q4 2:38LIBEthan Vasko 13 Yd Run (Jay Billingsley Kick)7–28
• Q4 4:33LIBDonte Lee Jr. 16 Yd pass from Ethan Vasko (Jay Billingsley Kick)7–21
• Q4 10:24LIBEvan Dickens 24 Yd pass from Ethan Vasko (Jay Billingsley Kick)7–14
• Q2 0:07LIBReese Smith 9 Yd pass from Ethan Vasko (Jay Billingsley Kick)7–7
• Q2 13:58MAINSincere Baines 77 Yd Run (Samuel Tremblay Kick)7–0

How the model called it

Market line

LIB −25.5

Against the number

MAIN covered

line LIB −25.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

LIB 100%50%MAIN 100%

Kickoff153 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

LIB (top)MAIN (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: LIB 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

LIB −25.5

Closing total

51.0

Model line

—

Actual result

MAIN 7 – 28 LIB

Leaders

Maine

• PassCarter Peevy 13/31, 132 YDS, 1 INT
• RushSincere Baines 11 CAR, 118 YDS, 1 TD
• RecMolayo Irefin 3 REC, 35 YDS

Liberty

• PassEthan Vasko 19/33, 197 YDS, 3 TD
• RushEthan Vasko 13 CAR, 63 YDS, 1 TD
• RecReese Smith 6 REC, 46 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

26.2sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

137

Points / snap

0.26

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

50%

LIB win rate

How often the home team won from here

Most comparable games

LSam Houston vs Air Force3-13LEastern Kentucky vs Western Carolina24-27LArkansas vs BYU31-38LAbilene Christian vs Incarnate Word10-24WSt. Thomas (MN) vs Morehead State35-28

Fourth downs

20 calls

MAIN gave up 0.8 points to the model on fourth down.MAIN 4/6 · LIB 6/9 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Maine vs. Liberty?

Maine 7, Liberty 28.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (LIB) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

MAIN

LIB

29%

Success rate

45%

-0.01

EPA / pass

0.15

0.27

EPA / rush

0.11

30%

Early-down success

42%

27%

Pass success

43%

32%

Rush success

48%

8%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

13%

21%

Stuffed rush rate

18%

55%

Pass rate

47%

7.2

Avg 3rd-down distance

5.8

MAIN

7.2 yards to go on 3rd down

62 scrimmage snaps

LIB

5.8 yards to go on 3rd down

75 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

MAIN		LIB
316	Total yards	391
132	Passing yards	197
184	Rushing yards	194
15	First downs	22
2-11	3rd down	11-19
2-5	4th down	1-2
13/31	Comp/Att	19/33
4.3	Yards per pass	6.0
5.8	Yards per rush	4.9
2	Turnovers	0
2-20	Penalties	4-40
26:26	Possession	33:34

Fourth downs

20 calls

MAIN

4/6 with the model

−0.8 pts · −0.0% win prob

LIB

6/9 with the model

−0.7 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q3 11:59 MAIN punt on 4th & 8 at LIB 38. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.47 points.

Every call, priced (20)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

MAIN 1/12 scoring drives← own end zone →LIB 4/11 scoring drives

LIBMISS18 pl, 47 yds· own 34Q1

MAINDOWNS11 pl, 42 yds· own 20Q1

LIBPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 38Q1

MAINTD1 pl, 77 yds· own 23Q2

LIBPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 30Q2

MAINPUNT8 pl, 17 yds· own 19Q2

LIBPUNT6 pl, 35 yds· own 23Q2

MAINPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 14Q2

LIBPUNT4 pl, 15 yds· own 38Q2

MAINFUM6 pl, 22 yds· own 16Q2

LIBTD3 pl, 38 yds· opp 38Q2

MAINEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 14Q2

MAINPUNT7 pl, 37 yds· own 25Q3

LIBPUNT5 pl, 34 yds· own 2Q3

MAINPUNT7 pl, 39 yds· own 18Q3

LIBDOWNS12 pl, 64 yds· own 6Q3

MAINDOWNS5 pl, 32 yds· own 30Q4

LIBTD6 pl, 62 yds· own 38Q4

MAININT2 pl, 0 yds· own 40Q4

LIBTD10 pl, 48 yds· opp 48Q4

MAINDOWNS4 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q4

LIBTD4 pl, 32 yds· opp 32Q4

MAINEND8 pl, 43 yds· own 25Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 2:38LIBEthan Vasko 13 Yd Run (Jay Billingsley Kick)7–28
• Q4 4:33LIBDonte Lee Jr. 16 Yd pass from Ethan Vasko (Jay Billingsley Kick)7–21
• Q4 10:24LIBEvan Dickens 24 Yd pass from Ethan Vasko (Jay Billingsley Kick)7–14
• Q2 0:07LIBReese Smith 9 Yd pass from Ethan Vasko (Jay Billingsley Kick)7–7
• Q2 13:58MAINSincere Baines 77 Yd Run (Samuel Tremblay Kick)7–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →