Louisiana vs. Troy: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ULTeam statsTROY
- Q4 2:55TROYJordan Lovett 19 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)23–35
- Q4 7:08ULTony Sterner 32 Yd Field Goal 23–28
- Q3 1:29ULTony Sterner 31 Yd Field Goal 20–28
- Q3 7:16TROYJordan Lovett 1 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)17–28
- Q2 1:51ULTony Sterner 37 Yd Field Goal 17–21
- Q2 8:03TROYTucker Kilcrease 4 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)14–21
- Q2 9:42TROYJaquez White 30 Yd Interception Return (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)14–14
- Q2 14:14ULZylan Perry 1 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)14–7
- Q1 8:27ULShelton Sampson Jr. 36 Yd pass from Lunch Winfield (Tony Sterner Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:01TROYTucker Kilcrease 8 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassLunch Winfield 12/22, 187 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushLunch Winfield 23 CAR, 139 YDS
- RecShelton Sampson Jr. 5 REC, 74 YDS, 1 TD
- PassTucker Kilcrease 16/24, 180 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJordan Lovett 21 CAR, 113 YDS, 2 TD
- RecEthan Conner 3 REC, 68 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTROY up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,588 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 14:14UL +22%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 Z.Perry rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TROY00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 7:16TROY +20%
#1 J.Lovett rush middle for 1 yard gain to the LA 00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 8:03TROY +20%
#10 T.Kilcrease rush middle for 4 yards gain to the LA 00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 9:42TROY +18%
Jaquez White 30 Yd Interception Return (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)
- Q1 8:27UL +15%
Shotgun #2 L.Winfield pass complete deep middle to #6 S.Sampson Jr. caught at TROY07, for 36 yards to the TROY00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 7:01TROY +12%
Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease pass complete short left to #18 D.Epps caught at TROY27, for 2 yards to the TROY27 (#7 C.Flowers)
FAQ
What was the final score of Louisiana vs. Troy?
Louisiana 23, Troy 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TROY) was correct.
| UL | TROY | |
|---|---|---|
| 371 | Total yards | 345 |
| 187 | Passing yards | 180 |
| 184 | Rushing yards | 165 |
| 18 | First downs | 21 |
| 7-15 | 3rd down | 9-13 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 12/23 | Comp/Att | 16/24 |
| 8.1 | Yards per pass | 7.5 |
| 4.4 | Yards per rush | 4.2 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-25 | Penalties | 2-15 |
| 29:28 | Possession | 30:32 |
Costliest call
Q3 12:45 UL punt on 4th & 1 at UL 31. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.10 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:55TROYJordan Lovett 19 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)23–35
- Q4 7:08ULTony Sterner 32 Yd Field Goal 23–28
- Q3 1:29ULTony Sterner 31 Yd Field Goal 20–28
- Q3 7:16TROYJordan Lovett 1 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)17–28
- Q2 1:51ULTony Sterner 37 Yd Field Goal 17–21
- Q2 8:03TROYTucker Kilcrease 4 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)14–21
- Q2 9:42TROYJaquez White 30 Yd Interception Return (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)14–14
- Q2 14:14ULZylan Perry 1 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)14–7
- Q1 8:27ULShelton Sampson Jr. 36 Yd pass from Lunch Winfield (Tony Sterner Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:01TROYTucker Kilcrease 8 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TROY Elo 1488, UL Elo 1333 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TROY -8.6 (73% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesTroy leads 12–8 · 30% have been one-possession games
| UL | TROY | |
|---|---|---|
| -20.6 (#126) | CORE overall | -16.6 (#116) |
| -8 / +13 | offense / defense | -13 / +4 |
| 2.09 | points / drive | 1.77 |
| 2.56 | allowed / drive | 1.83 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| -9 | pass over expected | +0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →