| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UL | 7 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 23 |
| TROY | 7 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 35 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (TROY Elo 1488, UL Elo 1333) plus home-field advantage. That projects TROY -8.6 (74% to win), essentially in line with the market.
TROY up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,588 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Louisiana 23, Troy 35.
Yes — the model's pick (TROY) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had TROY pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Jaquez White 30 Yd Interception Return (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)
(01:17) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield pass intercepted by #6 J.Powe at TROY21 #6 J.Powe return 4 yards to the TROY25, End Of Play
(01:23) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield pass complete short left to #0 R.Williams caught at TROY33, for 18 yards to the TROY33, out of bounds at TROY33, 1ST DOWN
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