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Louisiana Tech vs. Washington State: Final Score & Recap
Sun, Nov 16, 3:00 AM
Gesa Field
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LT | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| WSU | 7 | 7 | 0 | 14 | 28 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
WSU 1434
LT 1462
Projected spread
WSU -1.3
incl. home edge
Model pick
WSU
54% to win
Market spread
WSU -10
sportsbook line
Model edge
LT
8.7 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
54%
WSU · market 75%
Our model blends Elo ratings (WSU Elo 1434, LT Elo 1462) plus home-field advantage. That projects WSU -1.3 (54% to win) — 8.7 points of value on LT versus the market line of -10.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
WSU (top)LT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: WSU 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
LT2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedWSU
Offense
0.14
PPA / play
0.1340%
Success rate
42%1.25
Explosiveness
1.123.32
Pts / opportunity
3.9375%
Power success
68%Defense
0.07
PPA allowed / play
0.0738%
Success rate allowed
40%1.34
Explosiveness allowed
1.0920%
Havoc rate
14%23%
Stuff rate
18%Key matchups · Pro
- LT pass offense (0.19 PPA) vs. WSU pass defense (0.11 allowed) — edge LT.
- WSU rush offense (0.09 PPA) vs. LT rush defense (0.02 allowed) — edge WSU.
- LT rush offense (0.14 PPA) vs. WSU rush defense (0.08 allowed) — edge LT.
Drive-by-drive
LT 1/10 scoring drives← own end zone →WSU 4/9 scoring drives
LTDOWNS7 pl, 23 yds· own 25Q1
WSUTD6 pl, 48 yds· opp 48Q1
LTPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q1
WSUPUNT9 pl, 37 yds· own 25Q1
LTPUNT4 pl, 7 yds· own 3Q1
WSUTD6 pl, 17 yds· opp 17Q2
LTPUNT6 pl, 18 yds· own 24Q2
WSUPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 20Q2
LTMISS9 pl, 38 yds· own 33Q2
WSUPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 29Q2
LTFG8 pl, 30 yds· own 37Q2
WSUPUNT8 pl, 27 yds· own 25Q3
LTPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 20Q3
WSUPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 32Q3
LTPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 8Q3
WSUTD14 pl, 66 yds· own 34Q3
LTINT8 pl, 38 yds· own 35Q4
WSUTD12 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q4
LTEND2 pl, 4 yds· own 13Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
WSU up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
88%
WSU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Louisiana Tech vs. Washington State?
Louisiana Tech 3, Washington State 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WSU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had WSU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.