← All games
Louisiana Tech vs. Delaware: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Nov 8, 8:00 PM
Delaware StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LT | 7 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 24 |
| DEL | 3 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 25 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
DEL 1383
LT 1465
Projected spread
DEL +0.9
incl. home edge
Model pick
LT
53% to win
Market spread
DEL +5.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
DEL
4.6 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
47%
DEL · market 34%
Our model blends Elo ratings (DEL Elo 1383, LT Elo 1465) plus home-field advantage. That projects DEL +0.9 (47% to win) — 4.6 points of value on DEL versus the market line of +5.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
DEL (top)LT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: DEL 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
LT2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedDEL
Offense
0.14
PPA / play
0.1940%
Success rate
44%1.25
Explosiveness
1.253.32
Pts / opportunity
3.5275%
Power success
69%Defense
0.07
PPA allowed / play
0.2238%
Success rate allowed
42%1.34
Explosiveness allowed
1.4220%
Havoc rate
16%23%
Stuff rate
21%Key matchups · Pro
- DEL pass offense (0.27 PPA) vs. LT pass defense (0.14 allowed) — edge DEL.
- LT pass offense (0.19 PPA) vs. DEL pass defense (0.29 allowed) — edge DEL.
- LT rush offense (0.14 PPA) vs. DEL rush defense (0.19 allowed) — edge DEL.
Drive-by-drive
LT 3/11 scoring drives← own end zone →DEL 7/12 scoring drives
LTPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q1
DELINT6 pl, 14 yds· own 18Q1
LTMISS7 pl, 42 yds· own 42Q1
DELFG10 pl, 69 yds· own 20Q1
LTTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
DELFG11 pl, 51 yds· own 25Q1
LTINT3 pl, 29 yds· own 26Q2
DELPUNT5 pl, 14 yds· own 40Q2
LTMISS10 pl, 54 yds· own 15Q2
DELFG9 pl, 59 yds· own 31Q2
LTEND1 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q2
DELPUNT6 pl, 10 yds· own 25Q3
LTPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 29Q3
DELPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 31Q3
LTPUNT5 pl, 38 yds· own 22Q3
DELTD9 pl, 96 yds· own 4Q3
LTFG14 pl, 55 yds· own 25Q3
DELPUNT3 pl, -4 yds· own 22Q4
LTTD8 pl, 39 yds· opp 39Q4
DELTD6 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q4
DELTD8 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
DELFG4 pl, 6 yds· opp 40Q4
LTEND1 pl, 35 yds· own 35Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
DEL up 9 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,697 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
87%
DEL went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Louisiana Tech vs. Delaware?
Louisiana Tech 24, Delaware 25.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked LT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had LT pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.