Louisiana Tech vs. Delaware: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
LTTeam statsDEL
- Q4 0:12DELNate Reed 51 Yd Field Goal 24–25
- Q4 0:34DELN. Minicucci pass to E. Sessoms for 3 yds, for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)24–22
- Q4 2:23LTN. Minicucci pass intercepted, J. Fields return for 38 yds, for a TD (D. Henderson KICK)24–16
- Q4 3:09LTC. Thevenin run for 13 yds, for a TD (D. Henderson KICK)17–16
- Q4 9:09LTDrew Henderson 38 Yd Field Goal 10–16
- Q3 2:44DELKyre Duplessis 14 Yd pass from Nick Minicucci (Nate Reed Kick)7–16
- Q2 0:07DELNate Reed 27 Yd Field Goal 7–9
- Q2 11:05DELNate Reed 41 Yd Field Goal 7–6
- Q1 0:06LTClay Thevenin 37 Yd Run (Drew Henderson Kick)7–3
- Q1 2:59DELNate Reed 28 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- LT lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 15% explosive on a 39% success rate
- PassEvan Bullock 11/15, 95 YDS, 1 INT
- RushClay Thevenin 10 CAR, 64 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJalen Mickens 4 REC, 42 YDS
- PassNick Minicucci 26/52, 304 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushNick Minicucci 9 CAR, 55 YDS
- RecSean Wilson 5 REC, 107 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsDEL up 9 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,697 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 3:09LT +56%
C. Thevenin run for 13 yds, for a TD (D. Henderson KICK)
- Q4 0:06LT +39%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass complete short right to #4 C.Thevenin caught at TECH27, for 35 yards to the DEL40 lateral to #2 T.Kukuk for 12 yards gain to the TECH…
- Q4 0:12DEL +32%
Nate Reed 51 Yd Field Goal
- Q4 0:06DEL +27%
#91 N.Reed kickoff 45 yards to the TECH35 #1 D.Gandy return 0 yards to the TECH35 (#58 C.Gallagher) PENALTY TECH Holding (#4 K.Franklin) 10 yards from TECH35 to TECH25
- Q3 2:44DEL +26%
Kyre Duplessis 14 Yd pass from Nick Minicucci (Nate Reed Kick)
- Q4 2:23LT +22%
N. Minicucci pass intercepted, J. Fields return for 38 yds, for a TD (D. Henderson KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Louisiana Tech vs. Delaware?
Louisiana Tech 24, Delaware 25.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked LT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| LT | DEL | |
|---|---|---|
| 333 | Total yards | 399 |
| 202 | Passing yards | 304 |
| 131 | Rushing yards | 95 |
| 22 | First downs | 21 |
| 4-11 | 3rd down | 4-15 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 18/25 | Comp/Att | 26/52 |
| 8.1 | Yards per pass | 5.8 |
| 3.9 | Yards per rush | 4.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 9-98 | Penalties | 12-114 |
| 30:03 | Possession | 29:57 |
Costliest call
Q3 7:03 LT punt on 4th & 6 at DEL 40. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.57 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:12DELNate Reed 51 Yd Field Goal 24–25
- Q4 0:34DELN. Minicucci pass to E. Sessoms for 3 yds, for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)24–22
- Q4 2:23LTN. Minicucci pass intercepted, J. Fields return for 38 yds, for a TD (D. Henderson KICK)24–16
- Q4 3:09LTC. Thevenin run for 13 yds, for a TD (D. Henderson KICK)17–16
- Q4 9:09LTDrew Henderson 38 Yd Field Goal 10–16
- Q3 2:44DELKyre Duplessis 14 Yd pass from Nick Minicucci (Nate Reed Kick)7–16
- Q2 0:07DELNate Reed 27 Yd Field Goal 7–9
- Q2 11:05DELNate Reed 41 Yd Field Goal 7–6
- Q1 0:06LTClay Thevenin 37 Yd Run (Drew Henderson Kick)7–3
- Q1 2:59DELNate Reed 28 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (DEL Elo 1383, LT Elo 1465 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects DEL +0.9 (49% to win) — 4.6 points clear of DEL's market line of +5.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| LT | DEL | |
|---|---|---|
| -2.2 (#70) | CORE overall | -15.0 (#107) |
| -6 / -4 | offense / defense | -5 / +10 |
| 2.08 | points / drive | 2.26 |
| 1.61 | allowed / drive | 2.63 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| -9 | pass over expected | +10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →