Lafayette vs. Oregon State: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Lafayette0-1

0013

Oregon State0-7

▸0045

Final

Reser Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
LAFA	3	10	0	0	13
ORST	3	7	21	14	45

LAFATeam statsORST

269Total yards517

182Pass152

87Rush365

17First downs23

8-203rd down3-9

1Turnovers2

30:09Possession29:51

Scoring plays

• Q4 6:39ORSTAnthony Hankerson 65 Yd Run (Caleb Ojeda Kick)13–45
• Q4 9:00ORSTAnthony Hankerson 9 Yd Run (Caleb Ojeda Kick)13–38
• Q3 1:29ORSTAnthony Hankerson 15 Yd Run (Caleb Ojeda Kick)13–31
• Q3 3:38ORSTGabarri Johnson 20 Yd Run (Caleb Ojeda Kick)13–24
• Q3 7:56ORSTGabe Milbourn 1 Yd pass from Gabarri Johnson (Caleb Ojeda Kick)13–17
• Q2 0:04LAFAJack Simonetta 37 Yd Field Goal 13–10
• Q2 1:48LAFAMatthew Scerbo 15 Yd pass from Dean DeNobile (Jack Simonetta Kick)10–10
• Q2 6:03ORSTAnthony Hankerson 1 Yd Run (Caleb Ojeda Kick)3–10
• Q1 1:33ORSTCaleb Ojeda 40 Yd Field Goal 3–3
• Q1 5:42LAFAJack Simonetta 28 Yd Field Goal 3–0

How the model called it

Market line

ORST −21

Against the number

ORST covered

line ORST −21

What the numbers say

• LAFA played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ORST did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.7 vs 3rd & 5.1

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

ORST 100%50%LAFA 100%

Kickoff161 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

ORST (top)LAFA (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ORST 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

ORST −21

Closing total

56.0

Model line

—

Actual result

LAFA 13 – 45 ORST

Leaders

Lafayette

• PassDean DeNobile 18/40, 176 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
• RushKente Edwards 13 CAR, 41 YDS
• RecElijah Steward 4 REC, 68 YDS

Oregon State

• PassGabarri Johnson 7/9, 79 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
• RushAnthony Hankerson 25 CAR, 204 YDS, 4 TD
• RecGabe Milbourn 6 REC, 48 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

19.3sper snap · faster the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

141

Points / snap

0.41

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

ORST up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

97%

ORST went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WWisconsin vs Buffalo38-17WKansas State vs Troy42-13WTCU vs Nicholls41-6WLafayette vs Columbia24-3WTulane vs Southern Miss21-3

Fourth downs

18 calls

ORST gave up 0.8 points to the model on fourth down.LAFA 7/11 · ORST 4/5 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Lafayette vs. Oregon State?

Lafayette 13, Oregon State 45.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (ORST) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

LAFA

ORST

28%

Success rate

63%

0.06

EPA / pass

0.29

-0.05

EPA / rush

0.50

23%

Early-down success

67%

29%

Pass success

64%

26%

Rush success

63%

9%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

15%

36%

Stuffed rush rate

5%

59%

Pass rate

39%

8.7

Avg 3rd-down distance

5.1

LAFA

8.7 yards to go on 3rd down

76 scrimmage snaps

ORST

5.1 yards to go on 3rd down

65 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

LAFA		ORST
269	Total yards	517
182	Passing yards	152
87	Rushing yards	365
17	First downs	23
8-20	3rd down	3-9
1-2	4th down	2-2
19/41	Comp/Att	17/23
4.4	Yards per pass	6.6
2.9	Yards per rush	8.7
1	Turnovers	2
8-50	Penalties	6-68
30:09	Possession	29:51

Fourth downs

18 calls

LAFA

7/11 with the model

−0.4 pts · −0.0% win prob

ORST

4/5 with the model

−0.8 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q1 12:37 ORST punt on 4th & 2 at ORST 46. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.81 points.

Every call, priced (18)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

LAFA 3/13 scoring drives← own end zone →ORST 7/14 scoring drives

ORSTPUNT6 pl, 21 yds· own 25Q1

LAFAFG14 pl, 76 yds· own 13Q1

ORSTFG9 pl, 40 yds· own 38Q1

LAFAPUNT6 pl, 30 yds· own 25Q1

ORSTINT8 pl, 53 yds· own 20Q2

LAFAPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 2Q2

ORSTTD5 pl, 18 yds· opp 18Q2

LAFATD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2

ORSTPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 25Q2

LAFAFG7 pl, 44 yds· own 37Q2

ORSTEND1 pl, 5 yds· own 30Q2

LAFAPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q3

ORSTPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q3

LAFADOWNS4 pl, 9 yds· opp 36Q3

ORSTTD7 pl, 73 yds· own 27Q3

LAFAPUNT5 pl, 19 yds· own 23Q3

ORSTTD4 pl, 81 yds· own 19Q3

LAFAPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 25Q3

ORSTTD3 pl, 44 yds· opp 44Q3

LAFAINT3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q3

ORSTFUM1 pl, 6 yds· opp 19Q3

LAFAPUNT9 pl, 26 yds· own 13Q3

ORSTTD7 pl, 78 yds· own 22Q4

LAFAPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 20Q4

ORSTTD1 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q4

LAFAPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q4

ORSTEND8 pl, 37 yds· own 41Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 6:39ORSTAnthony Hankerson 65 Yd Run (Caleb Ojeda Kick)13–45
• Q4 9:00ORSTAnthony Hankerson 9 Yd Run (Caleb Ojeda Kick)13–38
• Q3 1:29ORSTAnthony Hankerson 15 Yd Run (Caleb Ojeda Kick)13–31
• Q3 3:38ORSTGabarri Johnson 20 Yd Run (Caleb Ojeda Kick)13–24
• Q3 7:56ORSTGabe Milbourn 1 Yd pass from Gabarri Johnson (Caleb Ojeda Kick)13–17
• Q2 0:04LAFAJack Simonetta 37 Yd Field Goal 13–10
• Q2 1:48LAFAMatthew Scerbo 15 Yd pass from Dean DeNobile (Jack Simonetta Kick)10–10
• Q2 6:03ORSTAnthony Hankerson 1 Yd Run (Caleb Ojeda Kick)3–10
• Q1 1:33ORSTCaleb Ojeda 40 Yd Field Goal 3–3
• Q1 5:42LAFAJack Simonetta 28 Yd Field Goal 3–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →