Kentucky vs. Georgia: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UKTeam statsUGA
- Q4 1:51UKKendrick Law 5 Yd pass from Cutter Boley (Jacob Kauwe Kick)14–35
- Q3 4:23UGACash Jones 16 Yd pass from Gunner Stockton (Peyton Woodring Kick)7–35
- Q3 10:54UGADillon Bell 3 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)7–28
- Q2 2:45UGADillon Bell 3 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)7–21
- Q2 14:21UKJosh Kattus 29 Yd pass from Cutter Boley (Jacob Kauwe Kick)7–14
- Q1 0:55UGAGunner Stockton 6 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)0–14
- Q1 8:51UGAGunner Stockton 7 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UK played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UGA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.4 vs 3rd & 5.4
- PassCutter Boley 25/41, 225 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushSeth McGowan 11 CAR, 44 YDS
- RecKendrick Law 6 REC, 64 YDS, 1 TD
- PassGunner Stockton 15/23, 196 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushChauncey Bowens 15 CAR, 70 YDS
- RecDillon Bell 4 REC, 68 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUGA up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Kentucky vs. Georgia?
Kentucky 14, Georgia 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UGA) was correct.
| UK | UGA | |
|---|---|---|
| 270 | Total yards | 425 |
| 225 | Passing yards | 245 |
| 45 | Rushing yards | 180 |
| 19 | First downs | 26 |
| 3-11 | 3rd down | 9-12 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 25/42 | Comp/Att | 18/27 |
| 5.4 | Yards per pass | 9.1 |
| 2.0 | Yards per rush | 4.1 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 7-41 | Penalties | 7-58 |
| 26:22 | Possession | 33:38 |
Costliest call
Q4 7:34 UK go for it on 4th & 10 at UGA 47. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.24 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:51UKKendrick Law 5 Yd pass from Cutter Boley (Jacob Kauwe Kick)14–35
- Q3 4:23UGACash Jones 16 Yd pass from Gunner Stockton (Peyton Woodring Kick)7–35
- Q3 10:54UGADillon Bell 3 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)7–28
- Q2 2:45UGADillon Bell 3 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)7–21
- Q2 14:21UKJosh Kattus 29 Yd pass from Cutter Boley (Jacob Kauwe Kick)7–14
- Q1 0:55UGAGunner Stockton 6 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)0–14
- Q1 8:51UGAGunner Stockton 7 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UGA Elo 2033, UK Elo 1513 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UGA -23.2 (93% to win) — 3.7 points clear of UGA's market line of -19.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesGeorgia leads 65–12–2 · Georgia has won 16 straight · 37% have been one-possession games
| UK | UGA | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.8 (#52) | CORE overall | +20.0 (#15) |
| -2 / -8 | offense / defense | +9 / -11 |
| 1.77 | points / drive | 3.08 |
| 2.42 | allowed / drive | 1.83 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| -1 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →