Kentucky
2-2·SEC· Elo 1513
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UK | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| UGA | 14 | 7 | 14 | 0 | 35 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (UGA Elo 2033, UK Elo 1513) plus home-field advantage. That projects UGA -23.2 (96% to win) — 3.7 points of value on UGA versus the market line of -19.5.
UGA up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Kentucky 14, Georgia 35.
Yes — the model's pick (UGA) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had UGA pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Josh McCray run for no gain to the UK 11
Gunner Stockton pass intercepted Jordan Lovett return for 20 yds to the UK 28
Cutter Boley pass intercepted, touchback. Ellis Robinson IV return for no gain
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