| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UK | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 10 |
| AUB | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (AUB Elo 1694, UK Elo 1506) plus home-field advantage. That projects AUB -9.9 (77% to win), essentially in line with the market.
UK up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Kentucky 10, Auburn 3.
No — the model picked AUB, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had AUB pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
End of 2nd quarter.
End of 1st quarter.
End of 3rd quarter.
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