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Kent State vs. Toledo: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Oct 18, 6:00 PM
Glass BowlConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KENT | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| TOL | 7 | 10 | 21 | 7 | 45 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
TOL 1551
KENT 966
Projected spread
TOL -25.8
incl. home edge
Model pick
TOL
97% to win
Market spread
TOL -25.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
97%
TOL · market 93%
Our model blends Elo ratings (TOL Elo 1551, KENT Elo 966) plus home-field advantage. That projects TOL -25.8 (97% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
TOL (top)KENT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: TOL 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
KENT2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedTOL
Offense
0.09
PPA / play
0.1836%
Success rate
44%1.38
Explosiveness
1.233.42
Pts / opportunity
3.8663%
Power success
78%Defense
0.19
PPA allowed / play
-0.0743%
Success rate allowed
33%1.29
Explosiveness allowed
1.1714%
Havoc rate
20%18%
Stuff rate
22%Key matchups · Pro
- KENT pass offense (0.29 PPA) vs. TOL pass defense (-0.08 allowed) — edge KENT.
- TOL rush offense (0.12 PPA) vs. KENT rush defense (0.16 allowed) — edge KENT.
- TOL pass offense (0.28 PPA) vs. KENT pass defense (0.26 allowed) — edge TOL.
Drive-by-drive
KENT 3/12 scoring drives← own end zone →TOL 6/11 scoring drives
KENTTD1 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
TOLPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q1
KENTFG11 pl, 45 yds· own 34Q1
TOLPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 23Q1
KENTPUNT5 pl, 20 yds· own 29Q1
TOLTD4 pl, 89 yds· own 11Q1
KENTPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 40Q1
TOLFG8 pl, 67 yds· own 23Q1
KENTPUNT3 pl, -9 yds· own 21Q2
TOLPUNT5 pl, 20 yds· own 42Q2
KENTPUNT9 pl, 22 yds· own 20Q2
TOLTD11 pl, 81 yds· own 19Q2
KENTEND1 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q2
TOLPUNT7 pl, 28 yds· own 32Q3
KENTINT3 pl, 13 yds· own 20Q3
TOLTD4 pl, 51 yds· own 49Q3
KENTPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q3
TOLTD4 pl, 57 yds· own 43Q3
KENTTD3 pl, -6 yds· own 25Q3
KENTPUNT6 pl, 15 yds· own 25Q3
TOLTD11 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
KENTPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 28Q4
TOLEND13 pl, 85 yds· own 9Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
TOL up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
99%
TOL went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Kent State vs. Toledo?
Kent State 10, Toledo 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TOL) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had TOL pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.