Kent State vs. Toledo: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
KENTTeam statsTOL
- Q4 10:00TOLTerrell Crosby Jr. 18 Yd pass from Kalieb Osborne (Dylan Cunanan Kick)10–45
- Q3 4:25TOLEric Williams 19 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Dylan Cunanan Kick)10–38
- Q3 6:04TOLJavon Brown 16 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Dylan Cunanan Kick)10–31
- Q3 9:24TOLJunior Vandeross III 21 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Dylan Cunanan Kick)10–24
- Q2 0:32TOLRyder Treadway 11 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Dylan Cunanan Kick)10–17
- Q2 12:31TOLDylan Cunanan 28 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q1 1:18TOLTrayvon Rudolph 58 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Dylan Cunanan Kick)10–7
- Q1 7:33KENTWill Hryszko 38 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 14:50KENTCade Wolford 75 Yd pass from Dru DeShields (Will Hryszko Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- KENT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and TOL did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.8 vs 3rd & 4.8
- PassDru DeShields 12/23, 159 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJordan Nubin 13 CAR, 61 YDS
- RecCade Wolford 3 REC, 87 YDS, 1 TD
- PassTucker Gleason 21/28, 294 YDS, 4 TD
- RushKenji Christian 16 CAR, 113 YDS
- RecTrayvon Rudolph 5 REC, 119 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTOL up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 1:18TOL +12%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 58 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)
- Q2 0:32TOL +8%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Ryder Treadway for 11 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)
- Q1 7:33KENT +6%
Will Hryszko 38 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Kent State vs. Toledo?
Kent State 10, Toledo 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TOL) was correct.
| KENT | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| 224 | Total yards | 552 |
| 159 | Passing yards | 374 |
| 65 | Rushing yards | 178 |
| 9 | First downs | 29 |
| 3-13 | 3rd down | 7-13 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 12/24 | Comp/Att | 25/32 |
| 6.6 | Yards per pass | 11.7 |
| 2.5 | Yards per rush | 4.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 8-57 | Penalties | 3-15 |
| 26:12 | Possession | 33:48 |
Costliest call
Q1 2:37 KENT punt on 4th & 3 at KENT 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.58 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 10:00TOLTerrell Crosby Jr. 18 Yd pass from Kalieb Osborne (Dylan Cunanan Kick)10–45
- Q3 4:25TOLEric Williams 19 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Dylan Cunanan Kick)10–38
- Q3 6:04TOLJavon Brown 16 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Dylan Cunanan Kick)10–31
- Q3 9:24TOLJunior Vandeross III 21 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Dylan Cunanan Kick)10–24
- Q2 0:32TOLRyder Treadway 11 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Dylan Cunanan Kick)10–17
- Q2 12:31TOLDylan Cunanan 28 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q1 1:18TOLTrayvon Rudolph 58 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Dylan Cunanan Kick)10–7
- Q1 7:33KENTWill Hryszko 38 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 14:50KENTCade Wolford 75 Yd pass from Dru DeShields (Will Hryszko Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TOL Elo 1551, KENT Elo 966 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TOL -25.8 (94% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesToledo leads 26–16 · Toledo has won 7 straight · 38% have been one-possession games
| KENT | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| -19.8 (#125) | CORE overall | +18.3 (#19) |
| -5 / +14 | offense / defense | +3 / -15 |
| 1.65 | points / drive | 2.25 |
| 2.87 | allowed / drive | 1.17 |
| 34% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| -4 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →