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Kansas vs. Missouri: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Sep 6, 7:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KU | 21 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 31 |
| MIZ | 6 | 15 | 7 | 14 | 42 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
MIZ 1640
KU 1632
Projected spread
MIZ -2.7
incl. home edge
Model pick
MIZ
58% to win
Market spread
MIZ -6.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
KU
3.8 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
58%
MIZ · market 66%
Our model blends Elo ratings (MIZ Elo 1640, KU Elo 1632) plus home-field advantage. That projects MIZ -2.7 (58% to win) — 3.8 points of value on KU versus the market line of -6.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
MIZ (top)KU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MIZ 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
KU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedMIZ
Offense
0.25
PPA / play
0.2048%
Success rate
45%1.18
Explosiveness
1.223.94
Pts / opportunity
3.8584%
Power success
89%Defense
0.25
PPA allowed / play
0.0442%
Success rate allowed
35%1.43
Explosiveness allowed
1.2718%
Havoc rate
20%22%
Stuff rate
21%Key matchups · Pro
- KU pass offense (0.32 PPA) vs. MIZ pass defense (0.10 allowed) — edge KU.
- MIZ pass offense (0.18 PPA) vs. KU pass defense (0.39 allowed) — edge KU.
- KU rush offense (0.22 PPA) vs. MIZ rush defense (0.01 allowed) — edge KU.
Drive-by-drive
KU 5/10 scoring drives← own end zone →MIZ 8/12 scoring drives
KUPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q1
MIZTD5 pl, 71 yds· own 29Q1
KUTD7 pl, 62 yds· own 38Q1
MIZTD3 pl, 10 yds· own 18Q1
MIZPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q1
KUTD6 pl, 53 yds· own 47Q1
MIZTD15 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
KUSAF1 pl, -50 yds· own 25Q2
MIZFG17 pl, 63 yds· own 30Q2
KUPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 23Q2
MIZFG4 pl, 84 yds· own 14Q2
MIZDOWNS10 pl, 45 yds· own 20Q3
KUFG11 pl, 53 yds· own 35Q3
MIZTD12 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
KUPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q3
MIZPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 36Q4
KUTD8 pl, 92 yds· own 8Q4
MIZTD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
KUPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q4
MIZTD3 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
KUINT5 pl, 11 yds· own 29Q4
MIZEND3 pl, 12 yds· own 37Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
MIZ up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
65%
MIZ went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Kansas vs. Missouri?
Kansas 31, Missouri 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MIZ) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had MIZ pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.