Kansas vs. Missouri: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
KUTeam statsMIZ
- Q4 1:49MIZJamal Roberts 63 Yd Run (Robert Meyer Kick)31–42
- Q4 4:14MIZBrett Norfleet 27 Yd pass from Beau Pribula (Robert Meyer Kick)31–35
- Q4 8:45KUDeShawn Hanika 6 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Laith Marjan Kick)31–28
- Q3 0:24MIZBrett Norfleet 11 Yd pass from Beau Pribula (Robert Meyer Kick)24–28
- Q3 5:48KULaith Marjan 26 Yd Field Goal 24–21
- Q2 0:00MIZRobert Meyer 20 Yd Field Goal 21–21
- Q2 1:03MIZRobert Meyer 25 Yd Field Goal 21–18
- Q2 9:49MIZTeam Safety 21–15
- Q2 10:10MIZKevin Coleman Jr. 3 Yd pass from Beau Pribula (Robert Meyer Kick)21–13
- Q1 2:13KUJalon Daniels 1 Yd Run (Laith Marjan Kick)21–6
- Q1 6:53KUAustin Alexander 28 Yd Fumble Return (Laith Marjan Kick)14–6
- Q1 8:09KUDeShawn Hanika 15 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Laith Marjan Kick)7–6
- Q1 10:53MIZAhmad Hardy 32 Yd Run (Robert Meyer PAT blocked)0–6
How the model called it
- PassJalon Daniels 18/30, 223 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushJalon Daniels 10 CAR, 25 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDeShawn Hanika 6 REC, 74 YDS, 2 TD
- PassBeau Pribula 30/39, 334 YDS, 3 TD
- RushJamal Roberts 13 CAR, 143 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKevin Coleman Jr. 10 REC, 126 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMIZ up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 4:14MIZ +52%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Brett Norfleet for 27 yds for a TD (Robert Meyer KICK)
- Q4 8:45KU +43%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to DeShawn Hanika for 6 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)
- Q3 0:24MIZ +32%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Brett Norfleet for 11 yds for a TD (Robert Meyer KICK)
- Q1 14:48KU +19%
Leshon Williams run for 3 yds to the KU 28
- Q4 1:34MIZ +19%
Jalon Daniels pass incomplete
- Q1 6:53KU +18%
Austin Alexander 28 Yd Fumble Return (Laith Marjan Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of Kansas vs. Missouri?
Kansas 31, Missouri 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MIZ) was correct.
| KU | MIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| 254 | Total yards | 595 |
| 223 | Passing yards | 334 |
| 31 | Rushing yards | 261 |
| 13 | First downs | 28 |
| 3-11 | 3rd down | 10-19 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 4-5 |
| 18/30 | Comp/Att | 30/39 |
| 7.4 | Yards per pass | 8.6 |
| 1.6 | Yards per rush | 5.6 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 2-10 | Penalties | 7-70 |
| 19:33 | Possession | 40:27 |
Costliest call
Q2 3:40 MIZ go for it on 4th & 10 at KU 31. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.56 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:49MIZJamal Roberts 63 Yd Run (Robert Meyer Kick)31–42
- Q4 4:14MIZBrett Norfleet 27 Yd pass from Beau Pribula (Robert Meyer Kick)31–35
- Q4 8:45KUDeShawn Hanika 6 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Laith Marjan Kick)31–28
- Q3 0:24MIZBrett Norfleet 11 Yd pass from Beau Pribula (Robert Meyer Kick)24–28
- Q3 5:48KULaith Marjan 26 Yd Field Goal 24–21
- Q2 0:00MIZRobert Meyer 20 Yd Field Goal 21–21
- Q2 1:03MIZRobert Meyer 25 Yd Field Goal 21–18
- Q2 9:49MIZTeam Safety 21–15
- Q2 10:10MIZKevin Coleman Jr. 3 Yd pass from Beau Pribula (Robert Meyer Kick)21–13
- Q1 2:13KUJalon Daniels 1 Yd Run (Laith Marjan Kick)21–6
- Q1 6:53KUAustin Alexander 28 Yd Fumble Return (Laith Marjan Kick)14–6
- Q1 8:09KUDeShawn Hanika 15 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Laith Marjan Kick)7–6
- Q1 10:53MIZAhmad Hardy 32 Yd Run (Robert Meyer PAT blocked)0–6
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MIZ Elo 1640, KU Elo 1632 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MIZ -2.7 (58% to win) — 3.8 points clear of KU's market line of -6.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMissouri leads 55–48–8 · Missouri has won 4 straight · 45% have been one-possession games
| KU | MIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| +4.9 (#57) | CORE overall | +20.9 (#12) |
| +10 / +6 | offense / defense | +5 / -15 |
| 2.34 | points / drive | 2.45 |
| 2.60 | allowed / drive | 1.57 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| -2 | pass over expected | -7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →