Kansas State vs. Baylor: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
KSUTeam statsBAY
- Q4 0:31BAYConnor Hawkins 53 Yd Field Goal 34–35
- Q4 1:48KSULuis Rodriguez 22 Yd Field Goal 34–32
- Q4 4:28BAYJacob Redding 66 Yd Interception Return (Connor Hawkins Kick)31–32
- Q4 8:50BAYBryson Washington 11 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Sawyer Robertson Run for Two-Point Conversion)31–25
- Q3 1:15KSUDylan Edwards 5 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)31–17
- Q3 4:35KSUJayce Brown 12 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Luis Rodriguez Kick)24–17
- Q2 0:13KSUGarrett Oakley 9 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Luis Rodriguez Kick)17–17
- Q2 1:57BAYMichael Turner 17 Yd Run (Connor Hawkins Kick)10–17
- Q2 4:23KSULuis Rodriguez 49 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q2 7:39BAYKobe Prentice 30 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Connor Hawkins Kick)7–10
- Q1 4:18BAYConnor Hawkins 30 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 9:33KSUAvery Johnson 31 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassAvery Johnson 29/45, 344 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushAvery Johnson 10 CAR, 72 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJayce Brown 4 REC, 106 YDS, 1 TD
- PassSawyer Robertson 25/39, 345 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushBryson Washington 9 CAR, 65 YDS
- RecMichael Trigg 8 REC, 155 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsKSU up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:00BAY +84%
S. Robertson takes a knee
- Q4 0:17KSU +55%
No Huddle-Shotgun Johnson,Avery pass incomplete short middle to Koch,Isaac thrown to BAYLOR48 PENALTY BAYLOR Pass Interference (Simpkins,Kendrick) 15 yards from KSTATE…
- Q4 0:31BAY +54%
Connor Hawkins 53 yd FG GOOD
- Q1 14:52BAY +33%
Dylan Edwards run for 2 yds to the KSU 27
- Q4 1:18BAY +21%
No Huddle-Shotgun Robertson,Sawyer pass incomplete deep right to Wilson,Kole thrown to KSTATE25 PENALTY KSTATE Pass Interference (Moss,Qua) 15 yards from BAYLOR48 to K…
- Q4 8:35KSU +17%
Dylan Edwards run for 4 yds to the KSU 21
FAQ
What was the final score of Kansas State vs. Baylor?
Kansas State 34, Baylor 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked KSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| KSU | BAY | |
|---|---|---|
| 506 | Total yards | 443 |
| 344 | Passing yards | 345 |
| 162 | Rushing yards | 98 |
| 31 | First downs | 25 |
| 8-15 | 3rd down | 3-9 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 29/46 | Comp/Att | 25/39 |
| 7.5 | Yards per pass | 8.8 |
| 4.5 | Yards per rush | 3.9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 3-40 | Penalties | 7-69 |
| 37:47 | Possession | 22:13 |
Costliest call
Q4 13:01 BAY go for it on 4th & 7 at KSU 15. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.71 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:31BAYConnor Hawkins 53 Yd Field Goal 34–35
- Q4 1:48KSULuis Rodriguez 22 Yd Field Goal 34–32
- Q4 4:28BAYJacob Redding 66 Yd Interception Return (Connor Hawkins Kick)31–32
- Q4 8:50BAYBryson Washington 11 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Sawyer Robertson Run for Two-Point Conversion)31–25
- Q3 1:15KSUDylan Edwards 5 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)31–17
- Q3 4:35KSUJayce Brown 12 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Luis Rodriguez Kick)24–17
- Q2 0:13KSUGarrett Oakley 9 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Luis Rodriguez Kick)17–17
- Q2 1:57BAYMichael Turner 17 Yd Run (Connor Hawkins Kick)10–17
- Q2 4:23KSULuis Rodriguez 49 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q2 7:39BAYKobe Prentice 30 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Connor Hawkins Kick)7–10
- Q1 4:18BAYConnor Hawkins 30 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 9:33KSUAvery Johnson 31 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BAY Elo 1590, KSU Elo 1665 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BAY +0.6 (50% to win) — 5.1 points clear of KSU's market line of -4.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesThe series is level at 11–11 · 27% have been one-possession games
| KSU | BAY | |
|---|---|---|
| +6.7 (#49) | CORE overall | +5.3 (#54) |
| +3 / -4 | offense / defense | +6 / +0 |
| 2.44 | points / drive | 2.31 |
| 2.09 | allowed / drive | 2.85 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 16% |
| -2 | pass over expected | +8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →