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Kansas State vs. Baylor: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Oct 4, 4:00 PM
McLane StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KSU | 7 | 10 | 14 | 3 | 34 |
| BAY | 3 | 14 | 0 | 18 | 35 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
BAY 1590
KSU 1665
Projected spread
BAY +0.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
KSU
52% to win
Market spread
BAY -4.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
KSU
5.1 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
48%
BAY · market 65%
Our model blends Elo ratings (BAY Elo 1590, KSU Elo 1665) plus home-field advantage. That projects BAY +0.6 (48% to win) — 5.1 points of value on KSU versus the market line of -4.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
BAY (top)KSU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: BAY 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
KSU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedBAY
Offense
0.20
PPA / play
0.2041%
Success rate
45%1.39
Explosiveness
1.274.15
Pts / opportunity
3.6967%
Power success
77%Defense
0.13
PPA allowed / play
0.1839%
Success rate allowed
44%1.33
Explosiveness allowed
1.1617%
Havoc rate
12%20%
Stuff rate
15%Key matchups · Pro
- BAY pass offense (0.25 PPA) vs. KSU pass defense (0.15 allowed) — edge BAY.
- BAY rush offense (0.17 PPA) vs. KSU rush defense (0.12 allowed) — edge BAY.
- KSU rush offense (0.18 PPA) vs. BAY rush defense (0.14 allowed) — edge KSU.
Drive-by-drive
KSU 7/12 scoring drives← own end zone →BAY 5/12 scoring drives
KSUTD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
BAYFG13 pl, 76 yds· own 11Q1
KSUPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 15Q1
BAYINT5 pl, 17 yds· opp 40Q1
KSUPUNT5 pl, 21 yds· own 2Q1
BAYFUM3 pl, 36 yds· own 43Q2
KSUPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 21Q2
BAYTD4 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q2
KSUFG9 pl, 57 yds· own 12Q2
BAYTD8 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
KSUTD9 pl, 72 yds· own 28Q2
BAYEND1 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q2
BAYPUNT9 pl, 23 yds· own 25Q3
KSUTD14 pl, 97 yds· own 3Q3
BAYPUNT3 pl, -21 yds· own 25Q3
KSUTD4 pl, 44 yds· opp 44Q3
BAYDOWNS10 pl, 60 yds· own 25Q3
KSUPUNT5 pl, 22 yds· own 15Q4
BAYTD3 pl, 82 yds· own 18Q4
KSUTD10 pl, 41 yds· own 17Q4
KSUFG7 pl, 72 yds· own 24Q4
BAYFG6 pl, 28 yds· own 36Q4
KSUMISS6 pl, 37 yds· own 25Q4
BAYEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 43Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
KSU up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
94%
KSU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Kansas State vs. Baylor?
Kansas State 34, Baylor 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked KSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had KSU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.