Kansas State vs. Arizona: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
KSUTeam statsARIZ
- Q4 4:25ARIZMichael Salgado-Medina 41 Yd Field Goal 17–23
- Q3 2:40ARIZMichael Salgado-Medina 31 Yd Field Goal 17–20
- Q3 10:36KSUAvery Johnson 1 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)17–17
- Q3 14:47KSUJayce Brown 75 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)10–17
- Q2 3:42ARIZNoah Fifita 2 Yd Run (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)3–17
- Q2 10:28ARIZMichael Salgado-Medina 31 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q1 5:01ARIZNoah Fifita 15 Yd Run (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)3–7
- Q1 7:42KSULuis Rodriguez 51 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ARIZ played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and KSU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.2 vs 3rd & 7.5
- ARIZ lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 12% explosive on a 31% success rate
- PassAvery Johnson 13/29, 88 YDS
- RushJayce Brown 1 CAR, 75 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJayce Brown 6 REC, 68 YDS
- PassNoah Fifita 16/33, 178 YDS
- RushIsmail Mahdi 22 CAR, 189 YDS
- RecChris Hunter III 3 REC, 37 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsARIZ up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 4:25ARIZ +42%
Michael Salgado-Medina 41 Yd Field Goal
- Q3 10:36KSU +26%
Avery Johnson 1 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)
- Q1 5:01ARIZ +18%
Noah Fifita run for 15 yds for a TD (Michael Salgado-Medina KICK)
- Q3 2:40ARIZ +14%
Michael Salgado-Medina 31 Yd Field Goal
- Q4 14:04ARIZ +13%
Michael Salgado-Medina punt for 51 yds for a touchback
- Q4 11:43KSU +13%
Ismail Mahdi run for 19 yds to the ARIZ 38 for a 1ST down
FAQ
What was the final score of Kansas State vs. Arizona?
Kansas State 17, Arizona 23.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked KSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| KSU | ARIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| 193 | Total yards | 412 |
| 88 | Passing yards | 178 |
| 105 | Rushing yards | 234 |
| 8 | First downs | 21 |
| 3-13 | 3rd down | 8-18 |
| 0-4 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 13/29 | Comp/Att | 16/34 |
| 3.0 | Yards per pass | 5.2 |
| 4.4 | Yards per rush | 5.2 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 2-30 | Penalties | 7-56 |
| 23:05 | Possession | 36:55 |
Costliest call
Q4 14:04 ARIZ punt on 4th & 1 at ARIZ 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.43 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:25ARIZMichael Salgado-Medina 41 Yd Field Goal 17–23
- Q3 2:40ARIZMichael Salgado-Medina 31 Yd Field Goal 17–20
- Q3 10:36KSUAvery Johnson 1 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)17–17
- Q3 14:47KSUJayce Brown 75 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)10–17
- Q2 3:42ARIZNoah Fifita 2 Yd Run (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)3–17
- Q2 10:28ARIZMichael Salgado-Medina 31 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q1 5:01ARIZNoah Fifita 15 Yd Run (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)3–7
- Q1 7:42KSULuis Rodriguez 51 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARIZ Elo 1451, KSU Elo 1658 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARIZ +5.9 (36% to win) — 4.4 points clear of KSU's market line of +1.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesArizona leads 6–2–1 · 44% have been one-possession games
| KSU | ARIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| +6.7 (#49) | CORE overall | +12.4 (#33) |
| +3 / -4 | offense / defense | +5 / -8 |
| 2.44 | points / drive | 2.61 |
| 2.09 | allowed / drive | 1.75 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| -2 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →