Arizona StadiumClosing line: KSU +-1.5 · ARIZ covered
Sat, Sep 13, 1:00 AM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KSU | 3 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 17 |
| ARIZ | 7 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 23 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (ARIZ Elo 1451, KSU Elo 1658) plus home-field advantage. That projects ARIZ +5.9 (33% to win) — 4.4 points of value on KSU versus the market line of +1.5.
ARIZ up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Kansas State 17, Arizona 23.
No — the model picked KSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had KSU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Jayce Brown 75 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)
Noah Fifita pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 27 yds to the KSU 30 for a 1ST down
Javin Whatley pass intercepted Qua Moss return for no gain to the KSU 15
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