James Madison vs. Georgia State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
JMUTeam statsGAST
- Q4 9:50JMUWayne Knight 9 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)14–7
- Q3 6:50JMUAlonza Barnett III 1 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)7–7
- Q1 4:03GASTCamden Overton-Howard 19 Yd pass from TJ Finley (Braeden McAlister Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- GAST played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and JMU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.2 vs 3rd & 6.7
- PassAlonza Barnett III 11/22, 74 YDS
- RushJordan Fuller 18 CAR, 94 YDS
- RecLandon Ellis 3 REC, 28 YDS
- PassTJ Finley 19/28, 198 YDS, 1 TD
- RushRashad Amos 11 CAR, 30 YDS
- RecCamden Overton-Howard 7 REC, 65 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 6:50JMU +25%
Alonza Barnett III run for 1 yd for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK)
- Q4 9:50JMU +20%
Wayne Knight run for 9 yds for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK)
- Q1 4:03GAST +14%
TJ Finley pass complete to Camden Overton-Howard for 19 yds for a TD (Braeden McAlister KICK)
- Q4 11:26JMU +12%
Jordan Fuller run for 4 yds to the GAST 24
- Q4 12:30GAST +12%
PENALTY GSU False Start (Boyd,Kynjrick). NO PLAY
- Q3 6:44GAST +7%
No Huddle Murray Jr.,Dennis rush right for 5 yards gain to the GSU30 (Thomas,Jacob; Hendrick,Trent) PENALTY GSU Holding (Burton,Jeff) 10 yards from GSU25 to GSU15. NO…
FAQ
What was the final score of James Madison vs. Georgia State?
James Madison 14, Georgia State 7.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (JMU) was correct.
| JMU | GAST | |
|---|---|---|
| 285 | Total yards | 249 |
| 74 | Passing yards | 212 |
| 211 | Rushing yards | 37 |
| 19 | First downs | 14 |
| 4-14 | 3rd down | 7-14 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 11/22 | Comp/Att | 22/32 |
| 3.4 | Yards per pass | 6.6 |
| 4.9 | Yards per rush | 1.7 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 11-100 | Penalties | 15-114 |
| 31:53 | Possession | 28:07 |
Costliest call
Q2 14:31 JMU go for it on 4th & 17 at JMU 32. The model preferred punt, a gap of 1.21 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 9:50JMUWayne Knight 9 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)14–7
- Q3 6:50JMUAlonza Barnett III 1 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)7–7
- Q1 4:03GASTCamden Overton-Howard 19 Yd pass from TJ Finley (Braeden McAlister Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (GAST Elo 1126, JMU Elo 1669 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects GAST +19.3 (12% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| JMU | GAST | |
|---|---|---|
| +20.6 (#13) | CORE overall | -16.7 (#117) |
| +5 / -16 | offense / defense | -6 / +11 |
| 3.06 | points / drive | 1.62 |
| 1.42 | allowed / drive | 3.54 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| -3 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →