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James Madison vs. Georgia State: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Oct 4, 7:30 PM
Center Parc StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JMU | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 14 |
| GAST | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
GAST 1126
JMU 1669
Projected spread
GAST +19.3
incl. home edge
Model pick
JMU
92% to win
Market spread
GAST +19.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
8%
GAST · market 11%
Our model blends Elo ratings (GAST Elo 1126, JMU Elo 1669) plus home-field advantage. That projects GAST +19.3 (8% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
GAST (top)JMU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: GAST 0%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
JMU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedGAST
Offense
0.21
PPA / play
0.1445%
Success rate
41%1.30
Explosiveness
1.253.98
Pts / opportunity
3.3977%
Power success
63%Defense
0.03
PPA allowed / play
0.2731%
Success rate allowed
46%1.43
Explosiveness allowed
1.2720%
Havoc rate
13%26%
Stuff rate
14%Key matchups · Pro
- JMU pass offense (0.29 PPA) vs. GAST pass defense (0.43 allowed) — edge GAST.
- GAST pass offense (0.24 PPA) vs. JMU pass defense (0.10 allowed) — edge GAST.
- GAST rush offense (0.06 PPA) vs. JMU rush defense (-0.00 allowed) — edge GAST.
Drive-by-drive
JMU 2/9 scoring drives← own end zone →GAST 1/9 scoring drives
JMUPUNT4 pl, 31 yds· own 10Q1
GASTMISS8 pl, 53 yds· own 17Q1
JMUPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 30Q1
GASTTD6 pl, 71 yds· own 29Q1
JMUDOWNS18 pl, 59 yds· own 25Q1
GASTPUNT9 pl, 28 yds· own 16Q2
JMUPUNT8 pl, 31 yds· own 20Q2
GASTEND3 pl, 22 yds· own 7Q2
GASTPUNT10 pl, 17 yds· own 25Q3
JMUTD8 pl, 85 yds· own 15Q3
GASTPUNT3 pl, -4 yds· own 25Q3
JMUPUNT11 pl, 27 yds· own 33Q3
GASTPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 1Q4
JMUTD4 pl, 28 yds· opp 28Q4
GASTPUNT6 pl, 14 yds· own 18Q4
JMUPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 21Q4
GASTDOWNS7 pl, 15 yds· own 19Q4
JMUEND6 pl, 7 yds· opp 34Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
50%
GAST win rate
How often the home team won from here
FAQ
What was the final score of James Madison vs. Georgia State?
James Madison 14, Georgia State 7.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (JMU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had JMU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.