Jackson State vs. Southern Miss: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Jackson State

0020

Southern Miss0-1

▸0038

Final

M. M. Roberts Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
JACK	3	7	0	10	20
USM	14	3	7	14	38

JACKTeam statsUSM

322Total yards363

131Pass224

191Rush139

19First downs25

5-163rd down4-11

2Turnovers0

31:15Possession28:45

Scoring plays

• Q4 5:32JACKAhmad Miller 8 Yd Run (Gerardo Baeza Kick)20–38
• Q4 9:59USMRobert Briggs 15 Yd Run (Reed Harradine Kick)13–38
• Q4 13:24JACKGerardo Baeza 40 Yd Field Goal 13–31
• Q4 14:54USMKadinn Morris 10 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Reed Harradine Kick)10–31
• Q3 5:29USMMicah Davis 15 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Reed Harradine Kick)10–24
• Q2 10:44USMReed Harradine 35 Yd Field Goal 10–17
• Q2 13:16JACKEmari Matthews 21 Yd Run (Gerardo Baeza Kick)10–14
• Q1 0:23USMBralon Brown 8 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Reed Harradine Kick)3–14
• Q1 4:45JACKGerardo Baeza 46 Yd Field Goal 3–7
• Q1 12:06USMZach Ruffin 30 Yd Punt Return (Reed Harradine Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

USM −13.5

Against the number

USM covered

line USM −13.5

What the numbers say

• JACK lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 15% explosive on a 39% success rate

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

USM 100%50%JACK 100%

Kickoff161 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

USM (top)JACK (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: USM 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

USM −13.5

Closing total

53.0

Model line

—

Actual result

JACK 20 – 38 USM

Leaders

Jackson State

• PassJaCobian Morgan 14/27, 131 YDS, 1 INT
• RushTravis Terrell Jr. 10 CAR, 80 YDS
• RecNate Rembert 4 REC, 64 YDS

Southern Miss

• PassBraylon Braxton 20/30, 214 YDS, 3 TD
• RushJeffery Pittman 10 CAR, 71 YDS
• RecBralon Brown 3 REC, 52 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

24.8sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

145

Points / snap

0.40

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

USM up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

94%

USM went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WVanderbilt vs Hawai'i35-28WFurman vs Tennessee Tech45-10WTulane vs South Alabama37-17WWilliam & Mary vs Wofford23-6WOld Dominion vs Louisiana38-31

Fourth downs

16 calls

JACK gave up 0.9 points to the model on fourth down.JACK 8/9 · USM 4/6 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Jackson State vs. Southern Miss?

Jackson State 20, Southern Miss 38.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (USM) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

JACK

USM

39%

Success rate

45%

-0.27

EPA / pass

0.30

0.30

EPA / rush

-0.01

35%

Early-down success

44%

34%

Pass success

53%

43%

Rush success

36%

15%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

13%

21%

Stuffed rush rate

18%

43%

Pass rate

54%

7.0

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.1

JACK

7.0 yards to go on 3rd down

74 scrimmage snaps

USM

6.1 yards to go on 3rd down

71 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

JACK		USM
322	Total yards	363
131	Passing yards	224
191	Rushing yards	139
19	First downs	25
5-16	3rd down	4-11
1-1	4th down	0-0
14/28	Comp/Att	22/32
4.7	Yards per pass	7.0
4.5	Yards per rush	3.9
2	Turnovers	0
12-87	Penalties	4-43
31:15	Possession	28:45

Fourth downs

16 calls

JACK

8/9 with the model

−0.9 pts · −0.0% win prob

USM

4/6 with the model

−0.2 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q1 9:54 JACK punt on 4th & 1 at JACK 22. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.91 points.

Every call, priced (16)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

JACK 5/12 scoring drives← own end zone →USM 5/11 scoring drives

JACKTD6 pl, 13 yds· own 25Q1

JACKPUNT6 pl, 11 yds· own 13Q1

USMMISS4 pl, 6 yds· opp 33Q1

JACKFG8 pl, 44 yds· own 27Q1

USMTD12 pl, 87 yds· own 13Q1

JACKTD5 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

USMFG7 pl, 58 yds· own 25Q2

JACKPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 35Q2

USMPUNT7 pl, 10 yds· own 40Q2

JACKINT10 pl, 50 yds· own 10Q2

USMMISS5 pl, 19 yds· own 45Q2

JACKEND2 pl, -8 yds· own 36Q2

USMPUNT5 pl, 20 yds· own 38Q3

JACKPUNT9 pl, 21 yds· own 5Q3

USMTD7 pl, 45 yds· opp 45Q3

JACKPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q3

USMTD11 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q3

JACKFG4 pl, 0 yds· opp 23Q4

USMTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4

JACKTD11 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4

USMPUNT4 pl, 12 yds· own 30Q4

JACKINT5 pl, 24 yds· own 29Q4

USMEND2 pl, 1 yds· opp 40Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 5:32JACKAhmad Miller 8 Yd Run (Gerardo Baeza Kick)20–38
• Q4 9:59USMRobert Briggs 15 Yd Run (Reed Harradine Kick)13–38
• Q4 13:24JACKGerardo Baeza 40 Yd Field Goal 13–31
• Q4 14:54USMKadinn Morris 10 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Reed Harradine Kick)10–31
• Q3 5:29USMMicah Davis 15 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Reed Harradine Kick)10–24
• Q2 10:44USMReed Harradine 35 Yd Field Goal 10–17
• Q2 13:16JACKEmari Matthews 21 Yd Run (Gerardo Baeza Kick)10–14
• Q1 0:23USMBralon Brown 8 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Reed Harradine Kick)3–14
• Q1 4:45JACKGerardo Baeza 46 Yd Field Goal 3–7
• Q1 12:06USMZach Ruffin 30 Yd Punt Return (Reed Harradine Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →