Iowa
3-2·Big Ten· Elo 1743
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IOWA | 17 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 37 |
| WIS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (WIS Elo 1540, IOWA Elo 1743) plus home-field advantage. That projects WIS +5.7 (34% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = IOWA ahead, below = WIS ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
IOWA up 30 entering the 4th quarter. Across 533 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Iowa 37, Wisconsin 0.
Yes — the model's pick (IOWA) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had IOWA pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Xavier Williams run for 19 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)
Xavier Williams run for 29 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)
Vinny Anthony II run for a loss of 9 yards to the WIS 38 Vinny Anthony II fumbled, recovered by WIS Vinny Anthony II
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