Iowa vs. Wisconsin: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
IOWATeam statsWIS
- Q4 7:25IOWAXavier Williams 19 Yd Run (Drew Stevens Kick)37–0
- Q3 10:34IOWAXavier Williams 29 Yd Run (Drew Stevens Kick)30–0
- Q2 0:00IOWADrew Stevens 49 Yd Field Goal 23–0
- Q2 8:44IOWADrew Stevens 25 Yd Field Goal 20–0
- Q1 1:30IOWAMark Gronowski 1 Yd Run (Drew Stevens Kick)17–0
- Q1 2:33IOWAKamari Moulton 6 Yd Run (Drew Stevens Kick)10–0
- Q1 4:33IOWADrew Stevens 32 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassMark Gronowski 17/24, 107 YDS, 1 INT
- RushKamari Moulton 15 CAR, 96 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKamari Moulton 3 REC, 29 YDS
- PassHunter Simmons 8/21, 82 YDS, 2 INT
- RushDilin Jones 16 CAR, 69 YDS
- RecLance Mason 1 REC, 29 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsIOWA up 30 entering the 4th quarter. Across 533 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 2:33IOWA +14%
Kamari Moulton run for 6 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)
- Q1 1:30IOWA +10%
Mark Gronowski run for 1 yd for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)
- Q1 4:33IOWA +7%
Drew Stevens 32 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Iowa vs. Wisconsin?
Iowa 37, Wisconsin 0.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (IOWA) was correct.
| IOWA | WIS | |
|---|---|---|
| 319 | Total yards | 209 |
| 109 | Passing yards | 82 |
| 210 | Rushing yards | 127 |
| 18 | First downs | 12 |
| 5-12 | 3rd down | 5-13 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 18/25 | Comp/Att | 8/21 |
| 4.4 | Yards per pass | 3.9 |
| 5.8 | Yards per rush | 3.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 2-10 | Penalties | 3-35 |
| 31:15 | Possession | 28:45 |
Costliest call
Q1 10:02 WIS punt on 4th & 1 at WIS 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.15 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:25IOWAXavier Williams 19 Yd Run (Drew Stevens Kick)37–0
- Q3 10:34IOWAXavier Williams 29 Yd Run (Drew Stevens Kick)30–0
- Q2 0:00IOWADrew Stevens 49 Yd Field Goal 23–0
- Q2 8:44IOWADrew Stevens 25 Yd Field Goal 20–0
- Q1 1:30IOWAMark Gronowski 1 Yd Run (Drew Stevens Kick)17–0
- Q1 2:33IOWAKamari Moulton 6 Yd Run (Drew Stevens Kick)10–0
- Q1 4:33IOWADrew Stevens 32 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WIS Elo 1540, IOWA Elo 1743 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WIS +5.7 (36% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesWisconsin leads 49–48–2 · Iowa has won 4 straight · 33% have been one-possession games
| IOWA | WIS | |
|---|---|---|
| +16.7 (#24) | CORE overall | -3.3 (#72) |
| +4 / -13 | offense / defense | -11 / -8 |
| 2.62 | points / drive | 1.23 |
| 1.35 | allowed / drive | 2.09 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 35% |
| -8 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →