Iowa
Big Ten· Elo 1902
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IOWA | 10 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 40 |
| NEB | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (NEB Elo 1611, IOWA Elo 1902) plus home-field advantage. That projects NEB +9.2 (25% to win) — 3.7 points of value on IOWA versus the market line of +5.5.
IOWA up 22 entering the 4th quarter. Across 824 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Iowa 40, Nebraska 16.
Yes — the model's pick (IOWA) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had IOWA pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(06:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 H.Haarberg rush left for 1 yard gain to the IOW00 fumbled by #10 H.Haarberg at IOW01 forced by #7 R.Godfrey Jr. recovered by IOW #90 B.Allen at IOW00, Touchback
(11:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 E.Johnson rush right for 70 yards gain to the IOW01 (#4 K.Entringer), 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was down by contact". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (11:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 E.Johnson rush right for 71 yards gain to the IOW00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:06, 1ST DOWN)
(02:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush left for 34 yards gain to the NEB40 (#37 D.Jones), 1ST DOWN
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