Iowa vs. Nebraska: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
IOWATeam statsNEB
- Q4 13:40IOWAKamari Moulton 1 Yd Run (Drew Stevens Kick)40–16
- Q3 4:47IOWAMark Gronowski 6 Yd Run (Drew Stevens Kick)33–16
- Q3 11:16IOWATeam Safety26–16
- Q2 0:37IOWAMark Gronowski 1 Yd Run (Drew Stevens Kick)24–16
- Q2 2:53NEBKyle Cunanan 35 Yd Field Goal 17–16
- Q2 8:13IOWAKamari Moulton 3 Yd Run (Drew Stevens Kick)17–13
- Q2 13:53NEBKyle Cunanan 29 Yd Field Goal 10–13
- Q1 1:13NEBKyle Cunanan 31 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q1 5:35IOWADJ Vonnahme 35 Yd pass from Mark Gronowski (Drew Stevens Kick)10–7
- Q1 8:49IOWADrew Stevens 41 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 10:40NEBEmmett Johnson 1 Yd Run (Kyle Cunanan Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassMark Gronowski 9/16, 166 YDS, 1 TD
- RushKamari Moulton 18 CAR, 93 YDS, 2 TD
- RecDJ Vonnahme 3 REC, 91 YDS, 1 TD
- PassTJ Lateef 9/24, 69 YDS
- RushEmmett Johnson 29 CAR, 217 YDS, 1 TD
- RecEmmett Johnson 2 REC, 22 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsIOWA up 22 entering the 4th quarter. Across 824 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Iowa vs. Nebraska?
Iowa 40, Nebraska 16.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (IOWA) was correct.
| IOWA | NEB | |
|---|---|---|
| 379 | Total yards | 300 |
| 166 | Passing yards | 69 |
| 213 | Rushing yards | 231 |
| 18 | First downs | 14 |
| 7-12 | 3rd down | 5-15 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 9/16 | Comp/Att | 9/24 |
| 10.4 | Yards per pass | 2.9 |
| 4.6 | Yards per rush | 6.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-45 | Penalties | 5-53 |
| 33:20 | Possession | 26:40 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:02 NEB go for it on 4th & 5 at NEB 33. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.43 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 13:40IOWAKamari Moulton 1 Yd Run (Drew Stevens Kick)40–16
- Q3 4:47IOWAMark Gronowski 6 Yd Run (Drew Stevens Kick)33–16
- Q3 11:16IOWATeam Safety26–16
- Q2 0:37IOWAMark Gronowski 1 Yd Run (Drew Stevens Kick)24–16
- Q2 2:53NEBKyle Cunanan 35 Yd Field Goal 17–16
- Q2 8:13IOWAKamari Moulton 3 Yd Run (Drew Stevens Kick)17–13
- Q2 13:53NEBKyle Cunanan 29 Yd Field Goal 10–13
- Q1 1:13NEBKyle Cunanan 31 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q1 5:35IOWADJ Vonnahme 35 Yd pass from Mark Gronowski (Drew Stevens Kick)10–7
- Q1 8:49IOWADrew Stevens 41 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 10:40NEBEmmett Johnson 1 Yd Run (Kyle Cunanan Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NEB Elo 1611, IOWA Elo 1902 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NEB +9.2 (28% to win) — 3.7 points clear of IOWA's market line of +5.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesNebraska leads 26–20–1 · Iowa has won 3 straight · 47% have been one-possession games
| IOWA | NEB | |
|---|---|---|
| +16.7 (#24) | CORE overall | -1.8 (#68) |
| +4 / -13 | offense / defense | +0 / +2 |
| 2.62 | points / drive | 2.52 |
| 1.35 | allowed / drive | 2.50 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| -8 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →