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Iowa State vs. Cincinnati: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Oct 4, 4:00 PM
Nippert StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISU | 0 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 30 |
| CIN | 17 | 14 | 0 | 7 | 38 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
CIN 1520
ISU 1655
Projected spread
CIN +3
incl. home edge
Model pick
ISU
59% to win
Market spread
CIN -1.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
ISU
4.5 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
41%
CIN · market 43%
Our model blends Elo ratings (CIN Elo 1520, ISU Elo 1655) plus home-field advantage. That projects CIN +3 (41% to win) — 4.5 points of value on ISU versus the market line of -1.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
CIN (top)ISU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: CIN 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
ISU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedCIN
Offense
0.19
PPA / play
0.2945%
Success rate
46%1.21
Explosiveness
1.313.54
Pts / opportunity
4.6069%
Power success
76%Defense
0.09
PPA allowed / play
0.2139%
Success rate allowed
45%1.22
Explosiveness allowed
1.1717%
Havoc rate
12%21%
Stuff rate
15%Key matchups · Pro
- CIN rush offense (0.24 PPA) vs. ISU rush defense (0.01 allowed) — edge CIN.
- CIN pass offense (0.42 PPA) vs. ISU pass defense (0.24 allowed) — edge CIN.
- ISU pass offense (0.29 PPA) vs. CIN pass defense (0.27 allowed) — edge ISU.
Drive-by-drive
ISU 4/12 scoring drives← own end zone →CIN 6/11 scoring drives
CINTD6 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q1
ISUPUNT5 pl, 12 yds· own 25Q1
CINFG8 pl, 62 yds· own 18Q1
ISUDOWNS7 pl, 48 yds· own 22Q1
CINTD9 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q1
ISUTD3 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
CINTD4 pl, 55 yds· own 45Q2
ISUMISS15 pl, 53 yds· own 25Q2
CINTD13 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q2
ISUEND6 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
ISUTD14 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
CINFUM3 pl, 7 yds· opp 46Q3
ISUDOWNS7 pl, 28 yds· own 39Q3
CINPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 33Q3
ISUPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 1Q3
CINDOWNS4 pl, 7 yds· opp 45Q3
ISUPUNT3 pl, -12 yds· own 38Q4
CINPUNT4 pl, 1 yds· own 37Q4
ISUDOWNS9 pl, 48 yds· own 36Q4
CINTD3 pl, 84 yds· own 16Q4
ISUTD13 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
CINPUNT3 pl, -18 yds· own 49Q4
ISUEND2 pl, 14 yds· own 35Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
CIN up 9 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,697 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
87%
CIN went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Iowa State vs. Cincinnati?
Iowa State 30, Cincinnati 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ISU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had ISU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.