Indiana vs. Penn State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
IUTeam statsPSU
- Q4 0:36IUOmar Cooper Jr. 7 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)27–24
- Q4 6:27PSUNicholas Singleton 19 Yd pass from Ethan Grunkemeyer (Ryan Barker Kick)20–24
- Q4 11:36PSUNicholas Singleton 1 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)20–17
- Q3 3:36PSURyan Barker 36 Yd Field Goal 20–10
- Q3 8:41IUNico Radicic 31 Yd Field Goal 20–7
- Q2 0:38IUKaelon Black 1 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)17–7
- Q2 2:30IUNico Radicic 28 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q2 11:08PSUNicholas Singleton 2 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)7–7
- Q1 1:42IUFernando Mendoza 18 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassFernando Mendoza 19/30, 218 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushRoman Hemby 12 CAR, 55 YDS
- RecCharlie Becker 7 REC, 118 YDS
- PassEthan Grunkemeyer 22/31, 219 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushNicholas Singleton 10 CAR, 71 YDS, 2 TD
- RecTrebor Pena 6 REC, 99 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsIU up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:36IU +90%
Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete short middle to #3 O.Cooper Jr. caught at PSU00, for 7 yards to the PSU00 TOUCHDOWN. The previous play is under automatic review -…
- Q4 6:27PSU +48%
Shotgun #17 E.Grunkemeyer pass complete short left to #10 N.Singleton caught at IND21, for 19 yards to the IND00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 2:00PSU +32%
PENALTY PSU False Start (#31 K.Dinkins) 5 yards from PSU42 to PSU37. NO PLAY
- Q4 11:36PSU +24%
Shotgun #10 N.Singleton rush middle for 1 yard gain to the IND00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 11:08PSU +18%
Shotgun #10 N.Singleton rush middle for 2 yards gain to the IND00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 6:27IU +18%
PENALTY IND Delay Of Game (#15 F.Mendoza) 5 yards from IND37 to IND32. NO PLAY
FAQ
What was the final score of Indiana vs. Penn State?
Indiana 27, Penn State 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (IU) was correct.
| IU | PSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 326 | Total yards | 336 |
| 218 | Passing yards | 219 |
| 108 | Rushing yards | 117 |
| 20 | First downs | 17 |
| 5-12 | 3rd down | 8-15 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 19/31 | Comp/Att | 22/31 |
| 7.0 | Yards per pass | 7.1 |
| 3.5 | Yards per rush | 3.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 5-21 | Penalties | 5-37 |
| 30:37 | Possession | 29:23 |
Costliest call
Q1 12:47 IU punt on 4th & 2 at IU 29. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.51 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:36IUOmar Cooper Jr. 7 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)27–24
- Q4 6:27PSUNicholas Singleton 19 Yd pass from Ethan Grunkemeyer (Ryan Barker Kick)20–24
- Q4 11:36PSUNicholas Singleton 1 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)20–17
- Q3 3:36PSURyan Barker 36 Yd Field Goal 20–10
- Q3 8:41IUNico Radicic 31 Yd Field Goal 20–7
- Q2 0:38IUKaelon Black 1 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)17–7
- Q2 2:30IUNico Radicic 28 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q2 11:08PSUNicholas Singleton 2 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)7–7
- Q1 1:42IUFernando Mendoza 18 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (PSU Elo 1942, IU Elo 2158 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects PSU +6.2 (35% to win) — 7.8 points clear of PSU's market line of +14. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesPenn State leads 25–3 · 39% have been one-possession games
| IU | PSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +35.3 (#3) | CORE overall | +13.0 (#32) |
| +19 / -17 | offense / defense | +8 / -5 |
| 3.69 | points / drive | 2.96 |
| 0.94 | allowed / drive | 2.25 |
| 17% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| -1 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →