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Indiana vs. Penn State: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Nov 8, 5:00 PM
Beaver StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IU | 7 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
| PSU | 0 | 7 | 3 | 14 | 24 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
PSU 1942
IU 2158
Projected spread
PSU +6.2
incl. home edge
Model pick
IU
68% to win
Market spread
PSU +14
sportsbook line
Model edge
PSU
7.8 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
32%
PSU · market 18%
Our model blends Elo ratings (PSU Elo 1942, IU Elo 2158) plus home-field advantage. That projects PSU +6.2 (32% to win) — 7.8 points of value on PSU versus the market line of +14.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
PSU (top)IU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: PSU 0%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
IU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedPSU
Offense
0.32
PPA / play
0.2351%
Success rate
46%1.18
Explosiveness
1.205.13
Pts / opportunity
4.3269%
Power success
76%Defense
0.03
PPA allowed / play
0.1235%
Success rate allowed
41%1.32
Explosiveness allowed
1.1723%
Havoc rate
16%30%
Stuff rate
18%Key matchups · Pro
- IU pass offense (0.52 PPA) vs. PSU pass defense (0.18 allowed) — edge IU.
- PSU rush offense (0.21 PPA) vs. IU rush defense (-0.09 allowed) — edge PSU.
- PSU pass offense (0.28 PPA) vs. IU pass defense (0.20 allowed) — edge PSU.
Drive-by-drive
IU 5/10 scoring drives← own end zone →PSU 4/11 scoring drives
IUPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 21Q1
PSUPUNT9 pl, 18 yds· own 42Q1
IUPUNT6 pl, 23 yds· own 14Q1
PSUPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 26Q1
IUTD3 pl, 68 yds· own 32Q1
PSUTD10 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q1
IUFG15 pl, 65 yds· own 25Q2
PSUFUM3 pl, 0 yds· own 22Q2
IUTD2 pl, 22 yds· opp 22Q2
PSUEND4 pl, 33 yds· own 25Q2
PSUINT2 pl, 0 yds· own 35Q3
IUFG11 pl, 37 yds· midfieldQ3
PSUFG10 pl, 56 yds· own 25Q3
IUPUNT8 pl, 21 yds· own 25Q3
PSUTD5 pl, 85 yds· own 15Q4
IUINT2 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q4
PSUTD7 pl, 44 yds· opp 44Q4
IUPUNT4 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q4
PSUPUNT6 pl, 10 yds· own 27Q4
IUTD10 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q4
PSUEND6 pl, 13 yds· own 36Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
IU up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
88%
IU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Indiana vs. Penn State?
Indiana 27, Penn State 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (IU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had IU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.