Indiana State vs. Indiana: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Indiana State

00

Indiana2-0

▸0073

Final

Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)

	1	2	3	4	T
INDI	0	0	0	0	0
IU	21	24	21	7	73

INDITeam statsIU

77Total yards680

38Pass379

39Rush301

5First downs33

2-143rd down6-8

0Turnovers0

26:08Possession33:37

Scoring plays

• Q4 2:18IUKhobie Martin 1 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)0–73
• Q3 1:22IUKhobie Martin 20 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)0–66
• Q3 6:15IUJonathan Brady 12 Yd pass from Alberto Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)0–59
• Q3 11:51IUOmar Cooper Jr. 58 Yd pass from Alberto Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)0–52
• Q2 1:51IUOmar Cooper Jr. 31 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)0–45
• Q2 5:03IUJonathan Brady 4 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)0–38
• Q2 7:56IUHolden Staes 18 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)0–31
• Q2 10:28IUNico Radicic 25 Yd Field Goal 0–24
• Q1 1:07IUOmar Cooper Jr. 13 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)0–21
• Q1 4:42IUOmar Cooper Jr. 13 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)0–14
• Q1 11:22IUFernando Mendoza 7 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

IU −47.5

Against the number

IU covered

line IU −47.5

What the numbers say

• INDI played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and IU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.1 vs 3rd & 5.1

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

IU 100%50%INDI 100%

Kickoff137 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

IU (top)INDI (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: IU 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

IU −47.5

Closing total

60.5

Model line

—

Actual result

INDI 0 – 73 IU

Leaders

Indiana State

• PassBrock Riddle 3/4, 25 YDS
• RushAngelo St. Louis 5 CAR, 22 YDS
• RecKeshon Singleton 1 REC, 17 YDS

Indiana

• PassFernando Mendoza 19/20, 270 YDS, 5 TD
• RushKhobie Martin 11 CAR, 109 YDS, 2 TD
• RecOmar Cooper Jr. 10 REC, 207 YDS, 4 TD

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

IU up 66 entering the 4th quarter. Across 60 historically comparable game states (within ±5 pts and ±8 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

IU went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WOklahoma vs Arkansas State73-0WOle Miss vs Furman76-0WSyracuse vs Colgate65-0WTennessee vs Kent State71-0WDavidson vs Laurinburg84-6

Fourth downs

16 calls

INDI gave up 1.1 points to the model on fourth down.INDI 12/14 · IU 2/2 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Indiana State vs. Indiana?

Indiana State 0, Indiana 73.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (IU) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

INDI

IU

20%

Success rate

74%

-0.30

EPA / pass

1.08

-0.18

EPA / rush

0.57

23%

Early-down success

73%

12%

Pass success

71%

27%

Rush success

76%

2%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

21%

42%

Stuffed rush rate

5%

49%

Pass rate

46%

8.1

Avg 3rd-down distance

5.1

INDI

8.1 yards to go on 3rd down

51 scrimmage snaps

IU

5.1 yards to go on 3rd down

68 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

INDI		IU
77	Total yards	680
38	Passing yards	379
39	Rushing yards	301
5	First downs	33
2-14	3rd down	6-8
0-2	4th down	0-0
11/20	Comp/Att	26/30
1.9	Yards per pass	12.6
1.3	Yards per rush	8.1
0	Turnovers	0
0-0	Penalties	6-45
26:08	Possession	33:37

Fourth downs

16 calls

INDI

12/14 with the model

−1.1 pts · −0.0% win prob

IU

2/2 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q4 13:05 INDI punt on 4th & 2 at IU 46. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.12 points.

Every call, priced (16)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

INDI 0/13 scoring drives← own end zone →IU 11/13 scoring drives

IUTD7 pl, 66 yds· own 34Q1

INDIPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q1

IUTD9 pl, 78 yds· own 22Q1

INDIDOWNS4 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q1

IUTD5 pl, 31 yds· opp 31Q1

INDIPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 25Q1

IUFG8 pl, 37 yds· opp 44Q2

INDIPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q2

IUTD3 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q2

INDIPUNT3 pl, -12 yds· own 25Q2

IUTD2 pl, 35 yds· opp 35Q2

INDIDOWNS6 pl, 20 yds· own 25Q2

IUTD3 pl, 45 yds· opp 45Q2

INDIPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q2

IUEND1 pl, 6 yds· own 21Q2

INDIPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 15Q3

IUTD4 pl, 72 yds· own 28Q3

INDIPUNT3 pl, -10 yds· own 45Q3

IUTD8 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q3

INDIPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q3

IUTD5 pl, 61 yds· own 39Q3

INDIPUNT6 pl, 34 yds· own 20Q3

IUPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 1Q4

INDIPUNT6 pl, 17 yds· own 38Q4

IUTD10 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q4

INDIEND5 pl, 22 yds· own 30Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 2:18IUKhobie Martin 1 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)0–73
• Q3 1:22IUKhobie Martin 20 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)0–66
• Q3 6:15IUJonathan Brady 12 Yd pass from Alberto Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)0–59
• Q3 11:51IUOmar Cooper Jr. 58 Yd pass from Alberto Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)0–52
• Q2 1:51IUOmar Cooper Jr. 31 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)0–45
• Q2 5:03IUJonathan Brady 4 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)0–38
• Q2 7:56IUHolden Staes 18 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)0–31
• Q2 10:28IUNico Radicic 25 Yd Field Goal 0–24
• Q1 1:07IUOmar Cooper Jr. 13 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)0–21
• Q1 4:42IUOmar Cooper Jr. 13 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)0–14
• Q1 11:22IUFernando Mendoza 7 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →