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Illinois vs. Duke: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Sep 6, 4:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILL | 7 | 7 | 14 | 17 | 45 |
| DUKE | 3 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 19 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
DUKE 1526
ILL 1578
Projected spread
DUKE -0.3
incl. home edge
Model pick
DUKE
51% to win
Market spread
DUKE +2.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
DUKE
2.8 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
51%
DUKE · market 45%
Our model blends Elo ratings (DUKE Elo 1526, ILL Elo 1578) plus home-field advantage. That projects DUKE -0.3 (51% to win) — 2.8 points of value on DUKE versus the market line of +2.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
DUKE (top)ILL (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: DUKE 0%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
ILL2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedDUKE
Offense
0.21
PPA / play
0.2548%
Success rate
46%1.17
Explosiveness
1.334.21
Pts / opportunity
4.3273%
Power success
69%Defense
0.20
PPA allowed / play
0.2345%
Success rate allowed
44%1.19
Explosiveness allowed
1.3515%
Havoc rate
17%19%
Stuff rate
23%Key matchups · Pro
- DUKE pass offense (0.39 PPA) vs. ILL pass defense (0.32 allowed) — edge DUKE.
- ILL rush offense (0.08 PPA) vs. DUKE rush defense (0.10 allowed) — edge DUKE.
- DUKE rush offense (0.08 PPA) vs. ILL rush defense (0.07 allowed) — edge DUKE.
Drive-by-drive
ILL 7/12 scoring drives← own end zone →DUKE 4/10 scoring drives
DUKEFG9 pl, 52 yds· own 25Q1
ILLPUNT5 pl, 15 yds· own 25Q1
DUKEPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 20Q1
ILLFUM5 pl, 11 yds· own 27Q1
ILLTD5 pl, 18 yds· opp 18Q1
DUKEFG14 pl, 52 yds· own 25Q1
ILLTD12 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
DUKEFUM4 pl, 57 yds· own 25Q2
ILLPUNT6 pl, 23 yds· own 18Q2
DUKETD9 pl, 77 yds· own 23Q2
ILLEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q2
ILLTD11 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
DUKEFUM4 pl, 36 yds· own 25Q3
ILLTD4 pl, 61 yds· own 39Q3
DUKETD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
ILLFG9 pl, 57 yds· own 26Q3
DUKEINT7 pl, 46 yds· own 25Q4
ILLTD12 pl, 89 yds· own 11Q4
DUKEFUM1 pl, -2 yds· own 25Q4
ILLTD1 pl, 23 yds· opp 23Q4
DUKEDOWNS7 pl, 43 yds· own 25Q4
ILLEND3 pl, -3 yds· own 32Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
ILL up 9 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,697 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
87%
ILL went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Illinois vs. Duke?
Illinois 45, Duke 19.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked DUKE, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had DUKE pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.