Illinois vs. Duke: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ILLTeam statsDUKE
- Q4 3:58ILLCa'Lil Valentine 23 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)45–19
- Q4 4:14ILLCollin Dixon 2 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (David Olano Kick)38–19
- Q4 14:04ILLDavid Olano 35 Yd Field Goal 31–19
- Q3 4:00DUKEAndrel Anthony 6 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)28–19
- Q3 6:54ILLHank Beatty 25 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)28–13
- Q3 9:34ILLJustin Bowick 4 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (David Olano Kick)21–13
- Q2 0:08DUKEAndrel Anthony 5 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Todd Pelino Kick)14–13
- Q2 5:01ILLCole Rusk 8 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (David Olano Kick)14–6
- Q2 11:08DUKETodd Pelino 40 Yd Field Goal 7–6
- Q1 1:51ILLKaden Feagin 1 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)7–3
- Q1 10:26DUKETodd Pelino 40 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ILL played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and DUKE did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.6 vs 3rd & 5.1
- PassLuke Altmyer 22/31, 296 YDS, 3 TD
- RushKaden Feagin 17 CAR, 48 YDS, 1 TD
- RecHank Beatty 8 REC, 128 YDS
- PassDarian Mensah 23/34, 334 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushJaquez Moore 6 CAR, 30 YDS
- RecCooper Barkate 4 REC, 88 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsILL up 9 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,697 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 9:34ILL +24%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Justin Bowick for 4 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)
- Q2 0:08DUKE +23%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Andrel Anthony for 5 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
- Q2 5:01ILL +21%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Cole Rusk for 8 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)
- Q1 1:51ILL +20%
Kaden Feagin run for 1 yd for a TD (David Olano KICK)
- Q3 6:54ILL +13%
Hank Beatty run for 25 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)
- Q3 4:00DUKE +13%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Andrel Anthony for 6 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
FAQ
What was the final score of Illinois vs. Duke?
Illinois 45, Duke 19.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked DUKE, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ILL | DUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| 419 | Total yards | 438 |
| 296 | Passing yards | 356 |
| 123 | Rushing yards | 82 |
| 25 | First downs | 21 |
| 5-13 | 3rd down | 4-10 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 22/31 | Comp/Att | 25/39 |
| 9.5 | Yards per pass | 9.1 |
| 2.9 | Yards per rush | 3.4 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 5 |
| 7-51 | Penalties | 6-69 |
| 36:12 | Possession | 23:48 |
Costliest call
Q1 6:41 DUKE punt on 4th & 2 at DUKE 28. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.48 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:58ILLCa'Lil Valentine 23 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)45–19
- Q4 4:14ILLCollin Dixon 2 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (David Olano Kick)38–19
- Q4 14:04ILLDavid Olano 35 Yd Field Goal 31–19
- Q3 4:00DUKEAndrel Anthony 6 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)28–19
- Q3 6:54ILLHank Beatty 25 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)28–13
- Q3 9:34ILLJustin Bowick 4 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (David Olano Kick)21–13
- Q2 0:08DUKEAndrel Anthony 5 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Todd Pelino Kick)14–13
- Q2 5:01ILLCole Rusk 8 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (David Olano Kick)14–6
- Q2 11:08DUKETodd Pelino 40 Yd Field Goal 7–6
- Q1 1:51ILLKaden Feagin 1 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)7–3
- Q1 10:26DUKETodd Pelino 40 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (DUKE Elo 1526, ILL Elo 1578 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects DUKE -0.3 (52% to win) — 2.8 points clear of DUKE's market line of +2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| ILL | DUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| +11.1 (#36) | CORE overall | +2.4 (#60) |
| +10 / -1 | offense / defense | +9 / +7 |
| 2.76 | points / drive | 3.04 |
| 2.56 | allowed / drive | 2.85 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →