Houston vs. Rice: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
HOUTeam statsRICE
- Q4 3:40HOUDean Connors 42 Yd Run (Ethan Sanchez Kick)35–9
- Q4 8:19HOUStephon Johnson 74 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)28–9
- Q4 9:02RICEChase Jenkins 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)21–9
- Q4 14:53HOUWill James 37 Yd Interception Return (Ethan Sanchez Kick)21–3
- Q3 6:24HOUConner Weigman 9 Yd Run (Ethan Sanchez Kick)14–3
- Q2 0:40HOUDean Connors 54 Yd Run (Ethan Sanchez Kick)7–3
- Q2 9:20RICEEnock Gota 42 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassConner Weigman 15/22, 188 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDean Connors 13 CAR, 132 YDS, 2 TD
- RecStephon Johnson 1 REC, 74 YDS, 1 TD
- PassChase Jenkins 10/12, 50 YDS, 1 INT
- RushDaelen Alexander 10 CAR, 55 YDS
- RecAaron Turner 3 REC, 24 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsHOU up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 13:06HOU +28%
Dean Connors run for 3 yds to the HOU 27
- Q3 6:24HOU +20%
Conner Weigman run for 9 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK)
- Q2 9:20RICE +12%
Enock Gota 42 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 9:20RICE +11%
Enock Gota 42 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 14:42HOU +9%
Chase Jenkins run for 17 yds to the RICE 42 for a 1ST down Rice Penalty, Offensive Holding (Artis Cole) to the RICE 32 for a 1ST down
FAQ
What was the final score of Houston vs. Rice?
Houston 35, Rice 9.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked RICE, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| HOU | RICE | |
|---|---|---|
| 392 | Total yards | 228 |
| 188 | Passing yards | 51 |
| 204 | Rushing yards | 177 |
| 14 | First downs | 16 |
| 9-16 | 3rd down | 4-15 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 15/22 | Comp/Att | 11/13 |
| 8.5 | Yards per pass | 3.9 |
| 5.4 | Yards per rush | 3.3 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 2-23 | Penalties | 1-10 |
| 27:14 | Possession | 32:46 |
Costliest call
Q1 3:38 RICE punt on 4th & 5 at HOU 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.31 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:40HOUDean Connors 42 Yd Run (Ethan Sanchez Kick)35–9
- Q4 8:19HOUStephon Johnson 74 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)28–9
- Q4 9:02RICEChase Jenkins 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)21–9
- Q4 14:53HOUWill James 37 Yd Interception Return (Ethan Sanchez Kick)21–3
- Q3 6:24HOUConner Weigman 9 Yd Run (Ethan Sanchez Kick)14–3
- Q2 0:40HOUDean Connors 54 Yd Run (Ethan Sanchez Kick)7–3
- Q2 9:20RICEEnock Gota 42 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (RICE Elo 1337, HOU Elo 1375 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects RICE -0.9 (54% to win) — 14.4 points clear of RICE's market line of +13.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesHouston leads 35–12 · Houston has won 2 straight · 34% have been one-possession games
| HOU | RICE | |
|---|---|---|
| -0.9 (#65) | CORE overall | -26.8 (#132) |
| -1 / +0 | offense / defense | -20 / +7 |
| 2.41 | points / drive | 1.40 |
| 2.08 | allowed / drive | 3.09 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 38% |
| -5 | pass over expected | -24 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →