Georgia
SEC· Elo 2026
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UGA | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 28 |
| ALA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (ALA Elo 1955, UGA Elo 2026) on a neutral field. That projects ALA +2.8 (42% to win), essentially in line with the market.
UGA up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Georgia 28, Alabama 7.
Yes — the model's pick (UGA) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had UGA pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(04:09) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short middle to #5 G.Bernard caught at UGA44, for 30 yards to the UGA17 lateral to #4 D.Hill for 27 yards gain to the UGA17 (#6 D.Everette), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
(12:40) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short middle to #5 G.Bernard caught at UGA25, for 23 yards to the UGA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:33, 1ST DOWN #31 C.Talty kick attempt good (H: #38 B.Doud, LS: #44 A.Rozier)
(06:55) Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass complete short left to #1 Z.Branch caught at ALA16, for 13 yards to the ALA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:51, 1ST DOWN #91 P.Woodring kick attempt good (H: #14 G.Stockton, LS: #60 B.Gardner)
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