Georgia vs. Alabama: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UGATeam statsALA
- Q4 6:51UGAZachariah Branch 13 Yd pass from Gunner Stockton (Peyton Woodring Kick)28–7
- Q4 12:33ALAGermie Bernard 23 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)21–7
- Q3 10:47UGANate Frazier 9 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)21–0
- Q2 8:43UGADillon Bell 5 Yd pass from Gunner Stockton (Peyton Woodring Kick)14–0
- Q1 4:36UGARoderick Robinson II 1 Yd pass from Gunner Stockton (Peyton Woodring Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ALA lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 12% explosive on a 32% success rate
- PassGunner Stockton 20/26, 156 YDS, 3 TD
- RushNate Frazier 13 CAR, 52 YDS, 1 TD
- RecZachariah Branch 5 REC, 53 YDS, 1 TD
- PassTy Simpson 19/39, 212 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushDaniel Hill 4 CAR, 11 YDS
- RecGermie Bernard 6 REC, 62 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUGA up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 4:36UGA +17%
#14 G.Stockton pass complete short right to #0 R.Robinson II caught at ALA00, for 1 yard to the ALA00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 8:43UGA +13%
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass complete short middle to #86 D.Bell caught at ALA00, for 5 yards to the ALA00 TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia vs. Alabama?
Georgia 28, Alabama 7.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UGA) was correct.
| UGA | ALA | |
|---|---|---|
| 297 | Total yards | 209 |
| 156 | Passing yards | 212 |
| 141 | Rushing yards | -3 |
| 16 | First downs | 11 |
| 6-16 | 3rd down | 3-14 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 20/26 | Comp/Att | 19/39 |
| 6.0 | Yards per pass | 5.4 |
| 3.4 | Yards per rush | -0.2 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-80 | Penalties | 1-5 |
| 36:52 | Possession | 23:08 |
Costliest call
Q1 8:28 UGA punt on 4th & 1 at UGA 39. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.07 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:51UGAZachariah Branch 13 Yd pass from Gunner Stockton (Peyton Woodring Kick)28–7
- Q4 12:33ALAGermie Bernard 23 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)21–7
- Q3 10:47UGANate Frazier 9 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)21–0
- Q2 8:43UGADillon Bell 5 Yd pass from Gunner Stockton (Peyton Woodring Kick)14–0
- Q1 4:36UGARoderick Robinson II 1 Yd pass from Gunner Stockton (Peyton Woodring Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ALA Elo 1955, UGA Elo 2026 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects ALA +2.8 (44% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesAlabama leads 45–26–3 · 39% have been one-possession games
| UGA | ALA | |
|---|---|---|
| +20.0 (#15) | CORE overall | +20.6 (#14) |
| +9 / -11 | offense / defense | +7 / -13 |
| 3.08 | points / drive | 2.62 |
| 1.83 | allowed / drive | 1.94 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| -3 | pass over expected | +10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →