Georgia Tech vs. Duke: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
GTTeam statsDUKE
- Q4 1:13DUKESahmir Hagans 19 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Darian Mensah Pass to Cooper Barkate for Two-Point Conversion)27–18
- Q4 2:10GTHaynes King 28 Yd Run (Aidan Birr Kick)27–10
- Q4 4:57GTMalachi Hosley 10 Yd Run (Aidan Birr Kick)20–10
- Q4 11:01GTAidan Birr 23 Yd Field Goal 13–10
- Q3 2:45GTAidan Birr 40 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q3 6:10DUKETodd Pelino 23 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q2 0:27DUKELanden King 20 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Todd Pelino Kick)7–7
- Q1 3:46GTOmar Daniels 95 Yd Fumble Return (Aidan Birr Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassHaynes King 14/21, 205 YDS
- RushHaynes King 14 CAR, 120 YDS, 1 TD
- RecIsiah Canion 3 REC, 56 YDS
- PassDarian Mensah 32/44, 373 YDS, 2 TD
- RushNate Sheppard 15 CAR, 50 YDS
- RecCooper Barkate 13 REC, 172 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 0:27DUKE +24%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Landen King for 20 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
- Q3 2:45GT +21%
Aidan Birr 40 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 4:57GT +20%
Malachi Hosley run for 10 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)
- Q1 3:46GT +19%
Omar Daniels 95 Yd Fumble Return (Aidan Birr Kick)
- Q4 11:01GT +18%
Aidan Birr 23 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 9:50GT +16%
Haynes King pass complete to Luke Harpring for 24 yds to the DUKE 48 for a 1ST down
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia Tech vs. Duke?
Georgia Tech 27, Duke 18.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked DUKE, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| GT | DUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| 376 | Total yards | 441 |
| 205 | Passing yards | 373 |
| 171 | Rushing yards | 68 |
| 21 | First downs | 26 |
| 6-12 | 3rd down | 7-15 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 14/21 | Comp/Att | 32/44 |
| 9.8 | Yards per pass | 8.5 |
| 4.8 | Yards per rush | 2.1 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-17 | Penalties | 8-59 |
| 26:31 | Possession | 33:29 |
Costliest call
Q2 4:26 GT punt on 4th & 3 at DUKE 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.72 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:13DUKESahmir Hagans 19 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Darian Mensah Pass to Cooper Barkate for Two-Point Conversion)27–18
- Q4 2:10GTHaynes King 28 Yd Run (Aidan Birr Kick)27–10
- Q4 4:57GTMalachi Hosley 10 Yd Run (Aidan Birr Kick)20–10
- Q4 11:01GTAidan Birr 23 Yd Field Goal 13–10
- Q3 2:45GTAidan Birr 40 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q3 6:10DUKETodd Pelino 23 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q2 0:27DUKELanden King 20 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Todd Pelino Kick)7–7
- Q1 3:46GTOmar Daniels 95 Yd Fumble Return (Aidan Birr Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (DUKE Elo 1645, GT Elo 1588 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects DUKE -4.7 (63% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesGeorgia Tech leads 56–35–1 · Georgia Tech has won 5 straight · 33% have been one-possession games
| GT | DUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| +10.6 (#38) | CORE overall | +2.4 (#60) |
| +13 / +3 | offense / defense | +9 / +7 |
| 2.86 | points / drive | 3.04 |
| 2.39 | allowed / drive | 2.85 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →