| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GT | 7 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 27 |
| DUKE | 0 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 18 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (DUKE Elo 1645, GT Elo 1588) plus home-field advantage. That projects DUKE -4.7 (64% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Georgia Tech 27, Duke 18.
No — the model picked DUKE, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had DUKE pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Omar Daniels 95 Yd Fumble Return (Aidan Birr Kick)
Haynes King run for 32 yds to the DUKE 43 for a 1ST down Duke Penalty, Personal Foul (Josiah Green) to the DUKE 28 for a 1ST down
run for a loss of 13 yards to the GT 25
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →
